The Detroit Lions are gunning for their fourth win in a row when they host the Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving.
It’s not going to be easy. The 7-3 Bills are one of the top teams in the AFC with an MVP candidate in Josh Allen at quarterback and the NFL’s top point differential (plus-104) after Week 11. Buffalo is favored by 9.5 points as of Tuesday evening.
For the Lions to pull off the upset, it will take some good fortune and great play from some key sources. Here are four Lions who need to have great Thanksgiving games for Detroit to win.
Alex Anzalone
Buffalo is the third opponent in a row with a mobile quarterback. Allen is not your typical running QB, however. He’s a power runner built like a tight end. He doesn’t try to avoid tackles but rather run through them.
That’s where Anzalone comes in. The veteran linebacker has played relatively well as the primary foil against the running of Chicago’s Justin Fields and New York’s Daniel Jones. Their run numbers don’t necessarily reflect how well Anzalone has done in damage control, and he’s been effective at run blitzing between the tackles.
Anzalone has had his issues with tackling in Detroit. Only Tampa Bay’s Devin White has missed more tackles over the last two seasons than Anzalone per PFF tracking. Missing tackles is never good, but missing a tackle on Josh Allen? That’s often fatal to a defense.
Buffalo isn’t just Allen on offense, however. Devin Singletary is an effective runner who can outmaneuver LBs in space. They throw to talented TE Dawson Knox well, too. Their offense is designed to stress opposing linebackers. Anzalone and his LBs mates, Derrick Barnes and Malcolm Rodriguez, will have to be at their collective best.
Whoever is playing guard
The Lions figure to play this game without both starting guards. Pro Bowl left guard Jonah Jackson has a concussion and is out. Right guard Evan Brown hasn’t practiced in the first two days after leaving Sunday’s win in New York with an ankle injury and it does not look promising for Thursday.
Brown is already the third-string RG. Normally the backup center, where he played very well in extended duty in 2021, Brown was only playing guard because of injuries to Halapoulivaati Vaitai and Tommy Kraemer.
Dan Skipper figures to be starting at one of the spots. Skipper has filled in at left guard several times this season. At 6-foot-10, he’s abnormally tall for playing inside, but Skipper has proven an effective run blocker as a guard.
The other spot? It could be Logan Stenberg, who badly flopped in an early trial; Stenberg’s lack of performance led to Brown being inserted as the starter. Outside of a truly outstanding two-game stint this preseason, Stenberg has not demonstrated NFL-level skills.
It could be Kayode Awosika, who has played exactly eight regular-season snaps in his two NFL seasons. Awosika, like Skipper, is nominally a tackle and is a better run blocker than pass protector. The Lions picked up Awosika from the Eagles practice squad back in September.
It could even be Darrin Paulo. The Lions brought Paulo back to the practice squad after the final roster cutdowns. Paulo has never played a regular-season snap, not even on special teams, in his three years.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
The Lions are going to need to post some points against Buffalo, which brings the NFL’s fifth-ranked scoring defense back to Detroit. Perhaps the only Lions offensive weapon who has a real advantage on his Bills defender is St. Brown.
The “Sun God” has produced 17 catches for 195 yards in the last two games, handily the Lions top receiving option. While St. Brown is capable anywhere on the field, he’s been at his best working inside-breaking routes in the intermediate range. St. Brown owns that area between the linebackers and safeties, and he’s too crafty against trail coverage from CBs. If the Bills have an exploitable weakness on defense, St. Brown is the guy who can make it happen for Detroit’s offense.
Aidan Hutchinson
This game will mark Hutchinson’s national television debut. The No. 2 overall pick has been fantastic as the Lions’ primary pass rusher and playmaker on defense. Hutchinson earned the NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors in Week 11 after picking off a pass, recovering a fumble and being a general menace to the Giants all afternoon.
Like St. Brown on offense, Hutchinson is the Lions’ most impactful talent. The national stage is set for Hutchinson to show what he can do. The Lions drafted him specifically to be someone who can help win games just like this.
He’s got a favorable matchup. Buffalo’s biggest weakness on the offensive line is right tackle Spencer Brown. Last week he gave up four QB hurries and a hit against the Browns, primarily facing the combination of Jadeveon Clowney and Chase Winovich. Brown isn’t awful, but he’s vulnerable. Right guard Ryan Bates is not a huge presence for Buffalo either — unspectacularly capable at best.
If Hutchinson can have another impactful game, the Lions have a chance on defense. If he’s a non-factor like he was against New England or Minnesota, it’s extremely unlikely to end well for Detroit.
