We’re now more than a month into the 2024-25 college football season, and that means that preseason prognostication has mostly now been thrown out the window in favor of cold, hard data.
And with the calendar turning to October, we begin to approach the time in which programs are forced to make tough decisions regarding underachieving coaching staffs.
With the early signing period and transfer portal window, we’ve seen coach firings happen earlier and earlier as schools attempt to get a leg up on the search process and, in turn, the offseason roster-building process.
Keeping that in mind as we look at the Week 6 slate, there are quite a few games that could make or break the futures of current coaches within the Power Four ranks. Here are four who desperately need a win on Saturday to avoid the hot seat.
1. Billy Napier, Florida
In the case of Napier — whose record over two seasons and change in Gainesville is just 13-16 — it’s going to take a lot more than a win over UCF to preserve any chance of sticking around in this job in 2025.
It seems like more of a “when” than “if” question when it comes to Napier’s future, but a home loss to UCF would likely be seen as the final straw for Florida’s brass and fan base after a 2-2 start given the gauntlet the Gators close the year with, featuring games against Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and LSU.
It would take a truly shocking turnaround for Napier to survive the 2024 season in Gainesville, but without a win against the Knights, it seems unlikely he’ll even survive the weekend.
2. Sam Pittman, Arkansas
Entering the season, Pittman’s seat at Arkansas was viewed as one of the hottest in America. But after a solid start, it seemed like the strange marriage between himself and offensive coordinator (and former Razorbacks head coach) Bobby Petrino may have been working.
But the Hogs missed a major opportunity early in the season on the road as they choked a game away against Oklahoma State, a loss that has not aged particularly well given the Cowboys’ recent struggles. It beat Auburn but struggled with offensive efficiency in a loss to Texas A&M last week.
Now, it draws a Tennessee team that looks like one of the best in the SEC. Demanding a win from Pittman’s squad is a tough ask, but it needs to at least be competitive against the Vols. The Razorbacks were handed a back-loaded schedule and managed just a 3-2 start.
They enter the thick of that schedule this week, and it’s pretty easy to see how this story ends if Pittman can’t pull off a stunning upset or two.
3. Mack Brown, North Carolina
Brown, the oldest head coach in the FBS ranks at the age of 72, has been on retirement watch for the last few seasons, despite both his and North Carolina’s insistence that he has no such plans. But now, given the way things have played out in 2024, I’m wondering if it’s time for the hot seat conversation, instead.
The Tar Heels have now lost two in a row after a 3-0 start, including an ugly loss to James Madison in which they allowed 70 points and a blown three-score second-half lead against rival Duke. The former was followed by a truly bizarre locker room moment when a despondent Brown seemingly offered to retire, a suggestion that was reportedly rebuffed by his players.
Brown later apologized for his conduct, but for lack of a better term, the vibes here stink. In his defense, quarterback Max Johnson was lost for the season in Week 1, but the offense hasn’t been the problem. Instead, it’s the defense, now led by a new coordinator in former Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins, that continues to be this program’s Achilles heel.
Now with a hot Pittsburgh offense coming to town, it feels like a do-or-die moment for UNC. With every bad loss, I think an offseason divorce here feels increasingly more likely. And while I’d probably bet that separation happens on Brown’s own terms, the performance on the field could dictate otherwise.
4. Dave Aranda, Baylor
Along with Napier and Pittman, Aranda was one of the names you were most likely to see on a preseason hot seat list. After winning 12 games and a Big 12 title in his second season in Waco, Aranda is just 9-16 in his last two seasons. He survived a 3-9 finish in 2023 but was forced to make staff changes.
And to be fair to Aranda, those changes seem to have helped — at least a bit. Baylor is improved defensively and is at least managing some production on offense despite a midseason quarterback change. But the Bears are also 2-3 after some tough losses — including the Hail Mary heartbreaker against Colorado, which it later lost in overtime, and last week’s valiant but ultimately failed comeback effort against BYU.
Those losses to solid teams aren’t exactly damning of Baylor, but Aranda needed to win them. Now, the Bears draw a ranked and undefeated Iowa State team on the road. Is it fair to expect a win? Probably not.
But even with a fairly manageable schedule the rest of the way, it’s hard to imagine Aranda picking up enough wins to stick around this season if his team can’t pull the upset on Saturday to get back to .500.
