The Kansas City Chiefs are Super Bowl 58 champions. This doesn’t mean their work is done.
Andy Reid’s team will enter the offseason with a massive target on its back as the rest of the NFL looks to separate a budding dynasty from its throne. The Chiefs will bring back stars like Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie for 2024, ensuring their status as favorites in the AFC West. But they can’t afford to rest on that foundation as they journey toward a perpetually shifting horizon.
What comes next for Kansas City as a three-peat looms? There’s one massive free agent who takes priority — and from there, it’s all about maintaining one of the league’s finest-oiled machines.
1
Re-sign Chris Jones (and try not to use the franchise tag again)
Kansas City has an estimated $24 million in salary cap space for 2024, per Over the Cap. That means re-signing its most important defensive player will be difficult, but not impossible.
With heaps of respect to L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie, no player was more vital to the Chiefs’ violent defense than the wrecking ball who began the demolition up front. Jones had 10.5 sacks and 29 quarterback hits last season as a versatile, do-whatever force up front. His biggest plays, however, came without registering an official stat on the final box score.
Here, against the Buffalo Bills, he erased what would have been a late go-ahead touchdown by moving to the edge and bull-rushing Pro Bowl tackle Dion Dawkins into the pocket so deep that it forces Josh Allen to underthrow an open Gabe Davis:
Chris Jones' pressure on the edge just saved a touchdown pic.twitter.com/qxDokRYMMs
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) January 22, 2024
Two games later, with the Niners threatening to take a seven point lead in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl 58, he forced another bad pass that turned a touchdown into nothing:
give Chris Jones all the money. saved 6 points from 25 yards away pic.twitter.com/ig9EcXs4CL
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) February 12, 2024
This is the value of Chris Jones, and while the Chiefs know it first hand every single team in the NFL does as well. He’s going to be a commodity in free agency and a massive payday looms.
Jones may be reticent to re-sign with Kansas City given some modest franchise tag/holdout drama last year. The Chiefs may be reticent to tag him again, since it would cost 120 percent of his cap hit from 2023 — roughly $32 million. That leaves room for a player and a franchise coming off a high note to work out a long-term deal that takes the soon-to-be 30-year-old through the remaining years of his prime.
It won’t be cheap. Jones could start his negotiations at something like four years and $140 million in total value after Aaron Donald got three years and $95 million heading into his age-31 season in 2022. But it’s an expense that’s worth it, and Kansas City has the game film to prove it.
The question is whether that decision will affect the future of All-Pro cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who is also an unrestricted free agent. Working out an early deal with Jones could allow the team to franchise tag the young defensive back while hammering out the particulars on a long-term deal.
Restructuring Patrick Mahomes’ contract could free up more than $30 million in extra cap space, which creates room to keep them both. Should push come to shove, however, Kansas City may opt for its disruptor up front rather than the ball magnet in the backfield.
2
Add a reliable deep threat who can stretch a compressed field
Patrick Mahomes’ average throw in 2023 traveled just 6.5 yards downfield. This wasn’t just a career low by a significant margin, it also ranked 30th among 32 qualified quarterbacks in the regular season.
This obviously didn’t derail his Super Bowl dream, though an untimely injury to San Francisco 49ers linebacker Dre Greenlaw certainly made the Chiefs’ dink-and-dunk short-range and over the middle passing game more viable. It doesn’t change the fact there’s only one trustable wide receiver on Kansas City’s depth chart and he’s a rookie who dropped eight passes last year.
Rashee Rice proved to be a capable short- and intermediate-range target who can wreak havoc with long runs after the catch. But after him there’s little to be excited about among the team’s wideouts. Mahomes went from 29 deep ball completions in 2021 to just 17 in 2023 thanks in large part to a group that struggled to create separation downfield and was anything but automatic when it came to securing the ball.
There’s a healthy market of free agent field-stretching wideouts who can not only jump-start Kansas City’s downfield passing but drag safeties with them to create room for Rice and a soon-to-be 35-year-old Travis Kelce. But that may be a luxury the team probably can’t afford if it re-signs Jones.
Fortunately, there’s another stacked class of receiving talent waiting in the draft — and the Chiefs could find an impact player at the 32nd, 64th or 96th picks come April. Oregon’s Troy Franklin (17.1 yards per catch in 2023, 13 touchdowns) and North Carolina’s Devontez Walker (17.0, seven TDs in eight games) could both be targets with the final pick of Day 1.
3
Add a new left tackle, ideally through the draft
Donovan Smith came over after being released by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and provided a veteran presence at left tackle. But he was also at least sort of a mess and is a pending free agent.
oh my god chase young pic.twitter.com/sLXG2WU0yZ
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) February 12, 2024
Smith is only 30 years old and can probably be brought back on a modest deal. But he’s not the future, and if Mahomes is going to rediscover his deep game he’d probably like extra time in the pocket to do so. That means its time to find a new left tackle.
Unfortunately, there’s no way to land a blue chip blocker this spring. We’ve already talked about the team’s modest cap space and how Chris Jones takes priority there. Lower cost free agent targets like Mekhi Becton, Andrus Peat or Yosh Nijman make sense, but none are guaranteed to be upgrades or long-term fixes. All the top edge protectors in this year’s draft will be long gone before the 32nd pick and likely off the board before Kansas City gets into any reasonable trade-up range.
Fortunately, the Chiefs have a track record of turning mid-draft prospects into reliable starters up front. In 2021, they added Creed Humphrey in the second round and Trey Smith in the sixth, both of whom have been wonderful additions to a potent offense. Guys like Darian Kinnard and Wanya Morris haven’t been as successful in the short sample size since, but there’s reason to believe Kansas City could take a Day 2 or early Day 3 pick and turn him into the guy who keeps Mahomes upright the next four-plus seasons.
