2027 NFL Mock Draft 1.0: Six QBs in the first round | Top 50 NFL draft prospects
I couldn’t bring myself to get too excited about the quarterback class for the 2027 NFL draft until I got answers to one question I had for those in the know.
Is this quarterback group worth the hype?
The consensus response was practically a Stone Cold–like, Hell yeah.
It’s now safe to do extensive homework on all of the potential QB prospects for what should be a crowded group in 2027. This shouldn’t be like last year when many college quarterbacks regressed and paved the way for Fernando Mendoza’s out-of-nowhere path to being the No. 1 pick in the ’26 draft.
For this year’s group, the top isn’t expected to change, with Texas’s Arch Manning and Oregon’s Dante Moore viewed as the top two quarterbacks. Most say Manning is the better prospect while others believe Moore should be ranked No. 1. But that’s a debate for another day.
Today is about organizing the quarterbacks by breaking them up into tiers ahead of Week 1 of the college football season. Obviously, these tiers could change throughout the season because game-day performance matters most. Still, this could be a fun way to look at how much has changed, and maybe more quarterbacks will make the Mendoza leap this season.
This is also a good time to mention that I’ll be sharing a draft notebook at least once a week. Like this one, it will include what I’m hearing to make sure you’re in the know for what’s to come in eight months, when the first team (Browns? Cardinals?) is on the clock from the nation’s capital to make the first pick (Manning? Moore? Jeremiah Smith?).
But before we get started. I did ask one more question to those in the know: Who is the third-best QB prospect behind Manning and Moore?
Let’s say the responses were different for that one. But for my bold prediction, I think that mystery third quarterback will eventually become clear and could enter that first tier to push Manning and Moore.
All right, here are the QB tiers, along with my draft risers and fallers heading into Week 1 of the college football season.
QB Tier 1
Arch Manning, senior, Texas; Dante Moore, senior, Oregon
This one is easy. It’s only Manning and Moore, but both have plenty to improve this season.
If Manning improves his accuracy, especially out of the pocket, he’ll likely be the No. 1 pick in April.
If Moore shows more playmaking ability against pressure, that could be enough to get him over Manning in the draft. But for now, both will be among the first three picks in the draft.
QB Tier 2
CJ Carr, junior, Notre Dame; Jayden Maiava, redshirt senior, USC; Darian Mensah, redshirt junior, Miami; Drew Mestemaker, redshirt sophomore, Oklahoma State
Carr’s name came up a few times when I asked who’s currently the third-best quarterback prospect. He plays with poise and knows how to push the ball, averaging 14.1 yards per completion last season.
However, I’m betting that Mensah makes the biggest jump and could eventually break into the top tier. He’s accurate, protects the ball and knows when to take his downfield shots. Mensah has a strong chance of improving his draft stock after leaving Duke for Miami.
Maiava could either be a top-16 pick or a Day 2 pick. There is no in-between. He passed his first test of the season (an easy one against San Jose State), displaying his arm strength and knack for extending plays, completing 25-of-29 for 286 yards and two touchdowns.
Mestemaker caught the attention of many scouts with what he did at North Texas last year (4,379 yards, 34 TDs). He might opt to return to college football next season, but if he surpasses what he did last year with his new team in Stillwater, that could be enough for him to declare for the draft.
QB Tier 3
Trinidad Chambliss, sixth collegiate season, Ole Miss; Nico Iamaleava, senior, UCLA; Julian Sayin, junior, Ohio State; LaNorris Sellers, redshirt junior, South Carolina
Chambliss is betting that his extra time in college will elevate his draft stock. More NFL teams are siding with safe, experienced players over raw projects with upside. What Tyler Shough did last year with the Saints is another example of getting immediate results from those who spent extra time around college programs.
Iamaleava has the kind of upside that could make him the No. 1 pick in the draft, but probably not in 2027. He needs more seasoning, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him return for a fifth collegiate season, unless he makes a sizable jump with the new coaching staff at UCLA.
Sayin can run an offense efficiently, but he’s going to have to prove that his lack of size (6'1", 215 pounds) won’t be an issue at the next level. As for Sellers, he has a rare combination of size and athleticism at 6'3", 238 pounds, but he needs to improve his accuracy and become more polished as a passer.
WEEK 1 RISERS AND FALLERS
Risers
Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana (vs. North Texas): Many believe what Becker did down the stretch for the Hoosiers last year wasn’t a fluke. He made the most of his opportunities after injuries occurred at the position, averaging 20 yards per catch on 34 receptions for 679 yards. Now as a full-time starter, the 6'4", 207-pound Becker has a chance to be a surefire first-round pick next year.
Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU (vs. Clemson): The 6'7", 244-pound Green has plenty of upside as an athletic monster. Now that Lane Kiffin is his coach and Sam Leavitt (another intriguing QB prospect) is his quarterback, Green has a chance to be the first tight end taken in 2027, ahead of Oregon’s Jamari Johnson. Green gets a compelling first game against Clemson.
Yhonzae Pierre, edge, Alabama (vs. East Carolina): There are plenty of discussions about Pierre possibly being the No. 3 edge rusher, behind only South Carolina’s Dylan Stewart and Texas’s Colin Simmons. I regret leaving him off my initial top 50 big board—Pierre, who is 6'4", 253 pounds, generated eight sacks last season.
Fallers
Ryan Coleman-Williams, WR, Alabama (vs. East Carolina): Just being extremely fast likely won’t be enough for Coleman-Williams to be a Day 1 pick. He had 13 drops last season, which led all Power 4 wide receivers in college football during his disappointing sophomore year (49 receptions, 689 yards, four TDs). He needs a bounce-back season to prove he can do more than stretch the field. Adding weight to reach 175 pounds could help him in 2026.
Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida (vs. Florida Atlantic): Baugh is an excellent runner between the tackles, but some have concerns about his lack of juice. If he can turn some of those missed tackles into explosive plays this season, that could be enough to convince the doubters that he’s the best running back prospect in next year’s draft. Baugh rushed for 1,170 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per carry and scored eight touchdowns. He also had 33 receptions.
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