Every game is a fresh opportunity.
Perceptions always matter.
To get an at-large bid to the Playoff, Big 12 teams must maintain strong margins of victory in Conference play. That’s just the way it is. Close results aren’t respected.
Utah, as a program generally, has always understood those concepts. But the Utes are off this week, and now I can check my obligatory mention off my list.
The rest of the teams in the West are in action, and I preview each of their games below. The featured team this week is none other than the Central Florida Knights.
Here’s my Big 12 Column for Week 5.
Featured Team: UCF
UCF at No. 20 Houston
Saturday, October 3
9:00 AM PT, ESPN2
Scott Frost is cooking on his old stomping grounds.
Is anyone paying attention?
We are.
The 3-1 start has turned heads. Beating TCU in Orlando last week signaled the program’s elevation. This isn’t your normal doorstep UCF team.
The 12-point spread is disrespectful. Houston is good. But not that good.
A Noon ET kickoff is no big deal for a Florida team. The heat and humidity aren’t going to bother them, either.
Most of Houston’s natural home field advantages don’t work on Central Florida.
The Cougars should win and very may well end up covering the spread with a late-game score. But this matchup will be closer than some expect.
No. 10 BYU at TCU
Saturday, October 3
4:00 PM PT, ESPN
The bye week for BYU gave the team extra time to prepare for TCU.
The Horned Frogs do not have a good quarterback. The signal-caller is an Ivy League transfer. That means you can blitz him all day.
This game will be won in the trenches. The Cougars’ defensive line should shine. The result should be plenty of third-and-longs for TCU and a poor third-down conversion rate.
The Horned Frogs’ defense is nothing to fear, either. But the Vegas oddsmakers are predicting a one-score game.
Translation: This is a great opportunity for BYU to gain respect. Beat these guys by 21 and then see the reactions.
No. 12 Texas Tech at Colorado
Saturday, October 3
4:30 PM PT, FOX
The coaching dynamic in Boulder is fascinating. It’s Brennan Marion’s offense with Deion Sanders’ players.
Any read-based spread-option system is highly dependent on player decision-making and chemistry. Most teams running that type of scheme take a full year of practice to get it right.
It’s usually in Year Two where the offensive efficiency pops. That makes the change to Isaac Wilson even more compelling. Marion must win now. Or there is no next season for him.
Wilson ran the offense better and isn’t afraid to get hit like Julian Lewis. The decision to make a change makes sense. You just gotta keep it respectable against Texas Tech.
The longer the game stays close, the more momentum CU and its crowd will have. If it gets to the fourth quarter and it’s a one-score game, you never know.
Baylor at Arizona State
Saturday, October 3
7:30 PM PT, ESPN
Prove it. If ASU deserves more respect, show us why. Because right now, there’s a lot of talk and no resume. Get a convincing win, that’s how you earn it.
Surely, a team like Baylor isn’t going to waltz into Tempe and leave with a win. Right? Cutter Boley better have his shit together.
People still remember how he looked in London. And nobody has forgotten about the final score of the Texas A&M game.
If the Sun Devils are worthy of more recognition, they will handle the Bears. If it’s a close game, then the current perception of ASU is spot on.
And if they lose, then the talk will only get louder.
Cincinnati at Arizona
Saturday, October 3
8:00 PM PT, FOX
Arizona is battle tested. The Wildcats gained valuable experience in Provo and Pullman. The coaching staff and players know what it takes to beat good teams.
Facing undefeated Cincinnati in Tucson, the spotlight is on. The national television broadcast is a moment to seize.
The only reason that Arizona wins games is because of Noah Fifita. Without him, the Cats are nothing.
It’s his redshirt senior season, and it’s a whiteout. To beat Cincy, Noah has to shine.
And the defense needs to get stops. Buckle up, it’s going to be a nail-biter at the Sol.
Noteworthy Game
West Virginia at Iowa State
Saturday, October 3
9:00 AM PT, TNT
Rich Rodriguez and the Mountaineers look to bounce back after their disappointing loss to Oklahoma State.
The defense wasn’t good enough to win a Conference game. That side of the ball has always been an issue for Rich Rod’s teams.
Don’t sugarcoat it. 609 yards allowed is pure incompetence.
To beat ISU on the road this week, the WVU defense needs to create multiple turnovers. If that happens, West Virginia’s offense could be just efficient enough to pull off the upset.
Straight-Up Staff Picks for Selected Games
|
2026 Week 5 Games |
Dane Miller |
Stephen Vilardo |
Nick Bartlett |
Spencer McLaughlin |
Jack Follman |
| Stanford at Wake Forest |  Wake Forest |
Wake Forest |
Wake Forest |
Wake Forest |
Wake Forest |
| Wyoming at NDSU |  NDSU |
NDSU |
NDSU |
NDSU |
NDSU |
| Cal at UNLV |  Cal |
Cal |
Cal |
Cal |
Cal |
| Ore St at CSU |  Ore St |
Ore St |
Ore St |
Ore St |
Ore St |
| BYU at TCU |  BYU |
BYU |
BYU |
BYU |
BYU |
| Washington at USC |  USC |
USC |
USC |
USC |
USC |
| Utah St at Boise St |  Boise St |
Boise St |
Boise St |
Boise St |
Boise St |
| Texas Tech at Colorado |  Texas Tech |
Texas Tech |
Texas Tech |
Texas Tech |
Texas Tech |
| Fresno St at WSU |  WSU |
 Fresno St |
WSU |
WSU |
WSU |
| Baylor at ASU |  ASU |
ASU |
ASU |
ASU |
ASU |
| Texas St at SDSU |  SDSU |
 Texas St |
SDSU |
Texas St |
SDSU |
| Cincinnati at Arizona |  Arizona |
Arizona |
Arizona |
Arizona |
Arizona |
| Staff Records | 42-16 (72%) | 44-14 (76%) | 47-11 (81%) | 43-15 (74%) | 29-7 (81%) |
