THE Met Office has announced that 2025 will be one of the three warmest years for global average temperature after 2024 and 2023.
This year has surpassed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for the first time and is projected to be the hottest year on record. In comparison, 2023 reached 1.45C before 2024 took the lead.
The rising concentration of greenhouse gases is one of the main drivers of the warming. However, the natural phenomenon of El Niño that took place in 2023 and 2024 also elevated the temperatures for these two years.
El Niño is a climate-related phenomenon where warmth from the tropical Pacific warms the global atmosphere.
The Met Office also recorded warmer sea-surface temperatures across the globe.
“Interestingly, the warm 2025 predicted global temperatures occur despite the tropical Pacific moving towards a La Niña phase which is driving slightly cooler conditions,” said Professor Adam Scaife who leads the team behind the Met Office’s global forecast for 2025.
Scaife explained that 2025 was expected to be cooler following the end of El Niño.
“2016 was an El Niño year and at the time it was the warmest year on record for global temperature," he said.
"In comparison to our forecast for 2025 though, 2016 is now looking decidedly cool.
“The 2023/24 El Niño event has temporarily provided a boost to global temperature, adding a peak to the rising temperatures driven by years of increasing greenhouse oil-and-gas/" target="_self">gas emissions."
The average global temperatures for 2025 are forecast to be between 1.29C and 1.53C with a central estimate of 1.41C, above the average for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).
“A year ago our forecast for 2024 highlighted the first chance of exceeding 1.5C,” said Dr Nick Dunstone who led the production of the Met Office forecast.
“Although this appears to have happened, it’s important to recognise that a temporary exceedance of 1.5C doesn’t mean a breach of the Paris Agreement. But the first year above 1.5C is certainly a sobering milestone in climate history.”
