We have reached the halfway mark of the 2024 NFL regular season. Nine weeks ago, we were staring at a blank slate of 272 games, wondering how they would all unfold. Nine weeks from now, we will be looking at a fully formed playoff bracket.
We’ve seen two coaches fired, 16 trades and a Hail Mary. The Kansas City Chiefs are undefeated, Kirk Cousins and Jayden Daniels are in first place, and multiple second-year quarterbacks have been benched. Derrick Henry is over 1,000 yards, Saquon Barkley hurdled a guy backward and players from Aidan Hutchinson to Tua Tagovailoa to Micah Parsons have been forced off the field.
Before we find out what the back nine of the regular season has in store for us, here’s an MMQB staff midseason roundtable. Each of our writers and editors will share a first-half surprise, an intriguing second-half story line and an updated (or not) Super Bowl prediction.
Here’s who we have participating below:
Albert Breer, senior NFL reporter
Conor Orr, senior writer
Gilberto Manzano, staff writer
Matt Verderame, staff writer
John Pluym, managing editor
Mitch Goldich, senior editor
First-half surprises
Albert Breer: How the Dallas Cowboys have come undone
The record is one thing—Dallas is 3–5, and that’s not where you want to be when you’re paying three core players in their primes (Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Trevon Diggs), have a fourth (Micah Parsons) coming down the pike, and have a Super Bowl–winning coach (Mike McCarthy) in a contract year. But because of injury, and where they are on both lines of scrimmage, where the Cowboys’ foundation has typically been laid, and the uncompetitive losses we’ve all witnessed, it sure looks like 2024 is on the brink.
Did I mention their next three opponents are a combined 19–7?
After games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans and Washington Commanders, it’s not hard to conjure a scenario where Dallas is 3–8 going into Thanksgiving, with a struggling New York Giants team coming to town. The apathy in the building for that one definitely would not be the kind of thing that Jerry Jones is looking for. So, for so many in the organization, we’ve hit a critical stretch. And critical in a way even the most pessimistic Cowboys observer wouldn’t have seen coming.
Then again, no one saw the team being taken out of games against the New Orleans Saints, Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions so quickly, and all of that happened, too.
Conor Orr: How good the Lions are
This is going to sound strange, but I think I’m surprised at just how good Detroit is. We live in a time when hype often swallows up even the best teams and vaporizes those who are unprepared for it (see: the New York Jets). This is a little inside baseball, but when we were coming up with ideas for our football preview magazine cover, we loved the idea of the Lions but planned so many backup options because the chances—at least on my end—of a team agreeing to do a cover amid so much hype was less than zero. About 11 minutes after a phone call with the team, I had a plane ticket booked to Detroit and we were on our way. Throughout this entire process, the Lions have been unabashedly themselves. And, who knows how sustainable it all is, but through the first nine games of the season, they have already been through so much and have only gotten better and more fun to watch.
How easily this will carry over to the back half of the season remains to be seen. But the Lions have already beaten the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers. Green Bay continues to position itself as the youngest team in the NFL, which will make it difficult to compete with heavy hitters such as Detroit, at least in the moment.
Gilberto Manzano: The Vikings have proved the doubters wrong
It’s only right that I took the Vikings as my first-half surprise, because I foolishly predicted them to finish with a 3–14 record. Yup, that’s pretty embarrassing to say after they started 5–0 and appear to be legitimate contenders for when the NFC postseason arrives.
I’ll hold the “L” up high here while I do the Skol chant for Sam Darnold’s Vikings. I was completely wrong, and I feel stupid about doubting a team led by coach Kevin O’Connell. I had concerns about a difficult schedule and a transition year without Kirk Cousins, but Minnesota cruised by the San Francisco 49ers, Texans and Packers during a three-week stretch in September. They ran into some trouble against the Lions and Los Angeles Rams, but went toe-to-toe with Detroit before the tough road trip to L.A. during a short week.
I didn’t need to see the now 6–2 Vikings beat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night to know they’re for real. But it’s nice to know that defensive coordinator Brian Flores is back to making life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. No one will want to face this team when the playoffs arrive in January. Yeah, there are moments when Darnold goes back to his old ways of making killer mistakes, but the Vikings have Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to overcome the occasional turnover. Minnesota has all the pieces to make noise in the NFC.
Matt Verderame: The Cincinnati Bengals look cooked
This was supposed to be the last dance season for the Bengals with the trio of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Higgins is up for a contract after this season, and while Chase is still signed for two more seasons, he’s upset with his current contractual status. Bottom line, this was going to be the final opportunity for these three to win a Super Bowl together.
Now, at the midway point of the season, Cincinnati is under .500 and looking up at both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North. Although it’s not impossible for the Bengals to make a run at the postseason, the schedule isn’t favorable with three games against their aforementioned divisional rivals remaining, along with trips to take on the Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers.
For Cincinnati, this campaign has been a colossal disappointment, largely because Higgins can’t stay healthy and the defense has been horrific against any good offense. Perhaps there’s some magic left in this team and it can make another deep run in the AFC playoffs. Or, maybe the Bengals are out of gas and this upcoming offseason will see ample changes made on both sides of the ball.
John Pluym: The Commanders lead the NFC East
After the Week 8 Hail Mary miracle against the Chicago Bears, I’d say anything is possible for Washington. Coach Dan Quinn and GM Adam Peters have done an outstanding job building this team. And the best addition has been quarterback Jayden Daniels, whom they selected with the second pick in the draft.
Daniels might be a legitimate MVP candidate the rest of the season. He has avoided catastrophic mistakes, throwing nine touchdowns with only two interceptions through nine games. He also been impressive running the football and could get close to 1,000 yards on the ground.
For Washington, it doesn’t get easy the next three weeks with matchups against the Steelers, Eagles and Cowboys. And they will have the Eagles, Atlanta Falcons and Cowboys to close out the season. But the Commanders are in a great position to contend for the division title after an impressive first half.
Mitch Goldich: The Steelers have made it work with both QBs
I’m a longtime Mike Tomlin fan, but I was skeptical that the setup with both Justin Fields and Russell Wilson on the roster would be a recipe for success. (In fact, my bold prediction before the season was that Wilson would win a game this year … for a team that wasn’t the Steelers.) But things have absolutely worked out so far—on the field and off. Justin Fields went 4–2 as a starter, then said all the right things after losing his job to Wilson. Wilson came in and has looked good in his two starts, and all of a sudden Pittsburgh is leading the AFC North at 6–2. Wilson has also done everything the right way as he has acclimated to becoming a Steeler, as Conor touched on after his first game.
Tomlin merely needs to go 3–6 from here on out to keep his famed .500-or-better streak alive, but this is a team that justifiably has higher goals than that. I’m interested to see how long Pittsburgh can keep this up, but at this point it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a big playoff game sealed because T.J. Watt is in a quarterback’s lap and forcing a fumble out of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or, dare I say, Patrick Mahomes.
Intriguing second-half story lines
Albert Breer: Who is the No. 1 contender to the Chiefs’ throne in the AFC?
The Buffalo Bills, right now, loom as the biggest threat, at 7–2, and may be the only team capable of stealing the No. 1 seed from Kansas City—beating the Chiefs in Orchard Park in two weeks would give Buffalo the tiebreaker and draw the team a game closer. The Bengals, even at 4–5, are still dangerous, because they’ve been the biggest thorn in the side of Andy Reid and Mahomes the past few years. The Ravens, now 6–3, have shown perhaps the highest ceiling of any AFC team, K.C. included. The Texans are there at 6–3, too, with potential to get a lot better.
Then, there’s the Chargers and the Denver Broncos, and you get the picture.
The AFC may not be as good as everyone expected, but it’s still plenty deep and, for this late in the season, there’s still plenty to be learned about all of the above teams (even the champs). So what this looks like in two months could be different than what it looks like now. And that should make for a pretty entertaining back half of the season.
Conor Orr: Will the Bears’ job be open on the coaching carousel?
We knew that the moment the team drafted Caleb Williams that the clock would start ticking on Matt Eberflus. Chicago is one of the two toughest NFL markets to coach in—Philadelphia being the other—and this is especially true when you have a generational prospect under center. Now, Eberflus is in a situation where every last one of his moves is being pulled through a fine-toothed comb, especially after the disastrous and season-altering Hail Mary loss to Daniels and the Commanders. The optics on this one were painful for so many reasons and, to follow suit, the Bears lost a game to the Arizona Cardinals the next week thanks to another long, end-of-half touchdown.
I don’t think there will be an in-season firing from the Bears at any juncture this season, but I do think plenty of people would line up to coach this team next year and are probably starting to make that known.
Gilberto Manzano: The NFC West race
The Cardinals might not have been the biggest surprise team in the first half of the season, because of the rise of the Commanders and the Vikings’ 5–0 start. But Arizona was the best team in the NFC West in the first two months, which not many saw coming. The first-place Cardinals might have the best shot to win the division, just don’t ask the oddsmakers.
Technically, the 49ers are still considered the betting favorites. But Arizona beat San Francisco at Levi’s Stadium earlier this year and just pummeled the Bears and had a quality win against the Chargers a few weeks back. It’s pretty impressive that the Cardinals are 5–4 after playing the Lions, Commanders, Packers and Bills during the first two months. With an easier schedule, maybe it’s the Cardinals’ division to lose, but that’s tough to say with the Rams (4–4), 49ers (4–4) and Seattle Seahawks (4–5) all separated by just one game.
But going back to the 49ers, it’s not a guarantee that Christian McCaffrey’s pending return will fix all their problems this season.This star-studded roster might be fatigued from advancing to the Super Bowl last season and making it to three consecutive NFC championship games. Maybe a younger squad will take the NFC West, like the Cardinals or the Rams, who also beat the 49ers in the first half of the season. Heading into Week 10, I think the Seahawks are the fourth-best team in the division, but they can get hot in a hurry with Geno Smith and will be tough to contain if DK Metcalf doesn’t miss anymore games.
Just having this discussion makes the NFC West the most interesting division in the NFL. Expect the Week 18 Sunday Night Football game to involve one of the two NFC West battles, possibly with the division crown on the line.
Matt Verderame: Can the Chiefs go undefeated?
The right answer is almost certainly no. The Chiefs have a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way, but it’s almost impossible to go undefeated. In the Super Bowl era, only the 1972 Miami Dolphins and 2007 New England Patriots were able to go into the postseason undefeated, and the ’72 Dolphins are the only ones to finish the deal.
Now there are 17 games in the regular season, and the Chiefs still have to play on the road against the Bills and Steelers, along with a home game facing the Texans. Otherwise, it’s a litany of games in which Kansas City will be a significant favorite, even against decent opponents like the Chargers and Broncos.
All that said, if the Chiefs go into Buffalo and win to move to 10–0 … look out. Their next four games would be against the Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders, Chargers at home and then the Cleveland Browns. It would still be a tall order, but the task wouldn’t feel nearly as daunting.
John Pluym: The Lions’ running backs
Can Jahmyr Gibbs and David Mongomery become the first pair of running backs from the same team to top 1,000 yards since Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams of the Carolina Panthers in 2009? Yes. The Lions have the best offensive line in football. They average 150-plus yards rushing per game. And they should with their two-headed monster of Montgomery and Gibbs.
Montgomery runs harder than any back in the league, especially at the goal line, where he’s rushed for seven touchdowns on the season. He has 488 yards rushing through eight games, averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
While Montgomery bullies defenders who try to tackle him, Gibbs runs away from them. He averages more than six yards per carry and has rushed for 656 yards on the season with seven touchdowns.
The Lions face eight teams on the back half of their schedule that all struggle against the run. So, bet big on Montgomery and Gibbs continuing to dominate on the ground.
Mitch Goldich: How will this Eagles season end?
The Eagles are such a fascinating team. They are both good and polarizing. They have won four straight games, and the chyron from one studio show I saw Monday morning said, “Are Eagles Winning in Spite of Nick Sirianni?” Four weeks ago, the world was calling for Sirianni to lose his job, but the team eventually started playing better.
At this point very little would surprise me. They could beat good teams. They could lose to bad teams. They could collapse like they did down the stretch last year. They could go 12–5, win a playoff game and fire the coach anyway. They could win the Super Bowl (all right, that one would surprise me a little).
But this team will be under an intense microscope for the next nine weeks and beyond, because it’s an organization that has a high standard for itself, which in the recent past has meant a willingness to move on from coaches without going through a full rebuild.
Even a coaching change and some typical roster turnover would not necessarily signify the end of an era. This team quickly rebuilt from the Doug Pederson Super Bowl LII team to the Sirianni Super Bowl LVII team. And the amount of talent on the roster would make it one of the more appealing jobs if it came open, viewed as a win-now opportunity. A disastrous season in Dallas has opened up the door for either the Eagles or ahead-of-schedule Commanders to win the NFC East. Whichever way it plays out will be interesting.
Super Bowl LIX predictions
Albert Breer
Preseason pick: 49ers 23, Bengals 20; Christian McCaffrey MVP
Midseason pick: Lions 33, Chiefs 30; Jahmyr Gibbs MVP
I’d like to stick to my guns, but San Francisco and Cincinnati have been just too beat up, and have had too much going on for me to do it. Also, someone pointed out to me that I haven’t picked the Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl over the past few years, which makes me look like a hater (but is more just me being dumb). I’m out of the business of gambling that someone else will be able to go into Arrowhead and eliminate the big, bad beast of the AFC. And the Lions have, quite simply, looked like the best team in football more often than not this year—a team that can beat you almost any way it wants to (my favorite stat of the year is that the Lions at one point against Tennessee had nine net passing yards and 42 points).
As for the game itself, I’d expect a classic if it’s Dan Campbell bringing the Lions back to his old Superdome stomping grounds to try to dethrone the reigning champs. I’d also guess this will be a Detroit team coming in on an emotional high, with Hutchinson potentially coming back for the game, and the Lions’ home city (and everyone with ties to the region) on fire. But none of that matters as much as the backbone of the team, which is an offensive line capable of being the driving force behind a championship. Consider the Gibbs MVP pick a nod to that, with Detroit winning it all in a very Bobby Lane era sort of way.
Conor Orr
Preseason pick: Lions 31, Chiefs 30; Jared Goff MVP
Midseason pick: Lions 31, Chiefs 30; Jared Goff MVP
Hello everyone and welcome to the correct pick all along. I remember every single one of your hateful responses on social media from September, and I’ve cataloged them in my tiny black book of revenge. The Lions and Chiefs are on a bullet train to meet one another in the title game, and this battle-tested Detroit team is going to possess the ability to not give Mahomes a last-second shot at somehow setting the Chiefs up for a game-winning field goal. I know how many people wanted a Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl a year ago, and I have the same energy for a showdown between the NFL’s two best teams. This is clear and obvious to me, even if the Chiefs and the Ravens are competitive on that front in the AFC right now.
Goff has truly risen to the moment in Detroit this year and has strung together a handful of near-perfect performances matched only by the likes of Lamar Jackson. But what has stood out to me the most are possessions that occur after he misses a big throw. Goff had a great rebound performance against an excellent Vikings defense earlier this year that indicated just how calloused he’s become emotionally (in the best possible way).
Gilberto Manzano
Preseason pick: Texans 24, Lions 23; C.J. Stroud MVP
Midseason pick: Commanders 24, Chiefs 23; Jayden Daniels MVP
I’m not going to lie. I did change my Lions pick to the Commanders to avoid having the same Super Bowl as everyone else. But it does say a lot that I have more belief in the Commanders to beat the Lions than I do in the Ravens to get by the Chiefs in the AFC. Baltimore is the only team that stands a chance vs. Kansas City, but I can’t get over Jackson’s playoff track record and the Week 8 upset loss to the Browns spooked me.
On the other hand, my reasons for not backing the Ravens might come off as foolish because Daniels is a rookie and the Commanders haven’t sniffed the Super Bowl since the early 1990s. But Daniels has me believing this is Washington’s year, just like everyone else in the DMV area—unless they’re Ravens fans. Daniels is no ordinary rookie and thrives in the biggest moments, evident by his clutch touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin on Monday Night Football against the Bengals and the jaw-dropping walk-off Hail Mary vs. the Bears. So why not the Commanders?
The Lions are an offensive juggernaut, but the NFC has a handful of contenders that can knock them off, including NFC North rivals Packers and Vikings. The 49ers and Rams could also get in and they have plenty of Super Bowl pedigree. Maybe the Commanders don’t have to get by the Lions to make Super Bowl LIX, but even if they do run into the big, bad Lions, they’ll have a chance with Daniels on their side.
Matt Verderame
Preseason pick: Chiefs 30, Lions 24; Travis Kelce MVP
Midseason pick: Chiefs 30, Lions 24; Travis Kelce MVP
Why change now? I was right at the start of the year, and I’m still right. These are the two best teams in football, even with the respective losses of Hutchinson and Rashee Rice. Kansas City is the AFC’s best team and is in strong position to gain the No. 1 seed for the fourth time in seven years with Mahomes as its starting quarterback. Meanwhile, the Lions have never enjoyed the No. 1 seed since the AFL-NFL merger of 1970, but are on track to make the playoffs run through Motown.
If this ends up being the Super Bowl, we’re going to see one of the better coaching matchups in some time. The Lions have a smart, innovative offense under coordinator Ben Johnson, who assuredly will be the top head coaching candidate this offseason. He’d be going against Steve Spagnuolo, who has the most exotic blitz packages in football along with four Super Bowl rings. On the other side, Aaron Glenn’s defense against Reid’s scheming would be a tremendous watch.
If these two teams don’t end up in the Super Bowl, it’ll either be because of injuries over the second half of the season or a big upset. Because right now, nobody should be going into their houses and beating them.
John Pluym
Preseason pick: Lions 28, Chiefs 27; Jared Goff MVP
Midseason pick: Lions 28, Chiefs 27; Jared Goff MVP
I don’t care that the Chiefs are unbeaten. I haven’t been impressed with Mahomes & Co. the first half of the season. And I don’t think DeAndre Hopkins will make that much of a difference to the offense, either, despite his performance Monday night. I do like Kansas City’s defense, especially Chris Jones, who might be the best defensive lineman in the league.
I know the Lions don’t have Hutchinson, but acquiring Za’Darius Smith at the trade deadline was huge. And even if Detroit struggles defensively, I’m confident it can outscore any team with its offense. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is the best in the game. Montgomery and Gibbs are the best running back duo in the league. And I love Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta.
Finally, Goff has been outstanding, especially against the blitz. So if Spagnuolo goes that route in the Super Bowl, I expect Goff to shred it the way he did Minnesota’s blitz-heavy scheme.
The Lions will finish the job this season after falling short in 2023.
Mitch Goldich
Preseason pick: Ravens 27, Rams 23; Lamar Jackson MVP
Midseason pick: Ravens 31, Lions 23; Lamar Jackson MVP
I am sticking with the Ravens. I thought before the season that the Chiefs would be vulnerable, and that the grueling nature of an attempted third consecutive Super Bowl run would catch up to them. I still think that’s the case, after eight wins that have been more workmanlike than dominant. I theorized the Ravens would be best positioned to knock them off come playoff time. Even though the Ravens have lost three games—including a toenail-close battle against those very Chiefs in Week 1—I have seen what I need to out of Baltimore to believe in them. Derrick Henry has been even better than most people could have expected, and the Ravens remain an excellent team when they play at their peak. I have to take a leap of faith that they’ll do it when it matters most, even though they can’t really prove it until they get there, but I just can’t watch them week after week without thinking they’ll eventually summit the mountaintop during Jackson’s prime.
And I haven’t totally given up on the Rams (maybe to win the NFC West, at least), but sticking with them in this exercise would be pretty irresponsible at this point, and would clearly be a case of simply hoping I was right nine weeks ago. So give me the Lions, who are just bullying teams and are now more battle-tested than they were a year ago. And swapping out my NFC team is proof that I’m still confident in the Ravens and not just stubbornly doubling down.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2024 NFL Midseason: First-Half Surprises, Second-Half Story Lines, Super Bowl Predictions.
