We’re getting a better idea of the 2024 NFL draft order after Week 17’s games — for one thing, the Carolina Panthers have already locked up the first overall pick, which they unfortunately chose to trade to the Chicago Bears, who are on the clock. But where are the New Orleans Saints slotted in? Where might they end up?
At the moment, the experts at Tankathon project the Saints to own the No. 13 overall pick. But that could change depending on Week 18’s results. The lowest the Saints could go with a win over the Atlanta Falcons (but without qualifying for the playoffs) would be No. 16. Thanks to their low strength of schedule (.430), the Saints would win any tiebreakers with other 9-win teams that don’t reach the postseason. Right now, that means the Houston Texans (who traded their pick to the Arizona Cardinals) and Pittsburgh Steelers at Nos. 17 and 18, respectively.
What if the Saints lose to the Falcons next Sunday? Would that give them a big boost in the rankings? Maybe so. There’s a large clump of 9-loss teams, so it’s tough to say where New Orleans would slot in, partly because one of those teams are the Falcons themselves. Draft order is determined by strength of schedule before any other tiebreakers, and that’s an area they would likely have an edge on the Saints (at .423). So the highest pick the Saints could expect in the event of a Week 18 loss is probably No. 10 overall.
That’s too low to get a quarterback, and it’s unlikely head coach Dennis Allen would sign off on picking a rookie passer anyway. His goal is to support Derek Carr, not replace him, and that is a good spot to find a high-end offensive lineman or pass rusher who could help address the Saints’ most critical needs. But if there’s a year to finally trade down and acquire more picks, it’s this one: the Saints only own one other selection in the top four rounds (the No. 45 pick in the second round, coming back from the Denver Broncos) and they badly need to reload their roster. The Saints haven’t traded down since 2007, but they’re bound to break that streak sooner or later.
And there’s one other variable we haven’t hit on: what if the Saints beat the odds and clinch a playoff berth? At that point they’d be picking anywhere from Nos. 19 to 32 depending on how far they advance. Reaching the postseason has always been their goal and we should expect them to compete for that, not draft order jockeying. We should find out where exactly the Saints are picking in the first round in the weeks ahead, but don’t expect a full draft order to be finalized (with compensatory draft picks) until March.
