The Masters Tournament was founded in 1933 and remains the first major championship of the year. Held annually at Augusta National Golf Club, in Augusta, Georgia, the Masters features a much smaller field than the other three majors because it is an invitational event. 89 players have received the invite this year and will be heading to the iconic venue to challenge defending champion Scottie Scheffler for the elusive green jacket.
Scheffler looks to become only the fourth player in Masters history to defend his title, and he will have his hands full this year as the likes of Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith, Collin Morikawa, and Patrick Cantlay, amongst others, are all worthy challengers.
With hot and muggy conditions and a great deal of rain in the forecast, it will be interesting to see how the world’s best grapple with an ever-evolving Augusta National Golf Club.
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The Masters: Course Preview
Augusta National Golf Club
Augusta National arguably remains the most recognizable golf course on the planet, although players and viewers alike will notice a number of changes to the iconic Alister MacKenzie and Bobby Jones design.
The course now tips out to 7,545 yards with the addition of a new tee on the 13th hole, which has now been lengthened to 545 yards. Augusta chairman Billy Payne discussed how distance was added to remove short iron approaches on this memorable par five out of the equation. Even the longest of players will now at least face more of a decision on their second shot to go for the green in two, as Rae’s Creek still borders the front of the green. The added length on 13 is a microcosm of the evolution that Augusta National has experienced over the years, moving away from a shot-makers course and more towards a bomber’s paradise. Additional length on many of the holes, widening of the fairways, and the removal of trees have turned Augusta into a course in which the strategy on nearly every tee is now to bomb away with the driver.
Considering the potential for hot and muggy conditions, along with rain in the forecast, there’s a chance we see an even softer golf course than normal over the weekend, opening the door up even further for the longest of drivers to experience an edge. Of course, the green complexes at Augusta National are famously segmented and engaging, and the MacKenzie and Jones design remains a second-shot golf course where precise long iron play is absolutely crucial.
While I will have an added weight on power off the tee this week, I will still primarily be looking for a combination of the strongest long iron players, those with a deft touch around the greens, and players who also have a proven track record of success at Augusta, a golf course where course history is by far the most predictive on the PGA Tour.
The Masters Key Stats
- Proximity 200 yards plus
- Driving Distance
- Strokes Gained Around the Green
The Masters Picks: Outright Winner
Jon Rahm (+900) (Bet $100 to collect $1,000) Get the best odds for this Jon Rahm pick at DraftKings
I picked Jon Rahm to win the Masters in December, and considering the fact that he has won five times in 12 starts since then, I see no reason to change my tune. The fiery Spaniard rates out as the number one player in my statistical model this week, checking the box of an incredibly long driver of the ball, an elite long iron player, with a much improved short game this season, and an immaculate track record at Augusta National and all the crossover courses I am looking at.
Rahm remains the only player in this field to boast wins at Kapalua, Riviera, and Muirfield Village, and the logical next progression for the World No. 2 is a green jacket.
While the margins are slim at the top of the odds board between Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Rory McIlroy, my numbers suggest that Rahm is actually the most well-rounded golfer, and he certainly presents the most value in the outright market of the elite trio.
I expect the former U.S. Open champion to pick up major number two this week in Augusta.
As it stands, Jon Rahm is +900 across the board, as all the sportsbooks rate him in the same way, just behind Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. Keep an eye on the odds for Jon Rahm, as he may drift in the market, so odds comparison will be vitally important as the week goes on.
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Justin Rose (+7500) (Bet $100 to collect $7,600) Get the best odds for this Justin Rose pick at Caesars Sportsbook
In terms of pure value, my numbers suggest that the +7500 number that FanDuel is now offering on Justin Rose is one of the best wagers on the board.
The recent AT&T National Pebble Beach Pro-Am winner boasts an absolutely immaculate resume at Augusta with 11 top-25 finishes, five top-10s, and two runner-ups in 13 appearances at this event.
Rose has risen back to relevance this season with four top-30 finishes, two top-10s, and a win at Pebble Beach this year, and enters Augusta on the heels of a 36th-place finish at the Valspar where he gained strokes in both ball-striking categories, as well as a sixth-place finish the prior week at the Players Championship.
He fits many of the trends this week in terms of his lead in form this season, and past history of success at Augusta.
This is far too strong of a number to pass up on a player that we know is more than comfortable at this iconic venue.
As you can see there is a big divide between how Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook rate Justin Rose's chances this week. Using the Masters odds comparison grid clearly pays off in Rose's case, as you would win $2000 extra, betting him at Caesars rather than DraftKings.
