For what seems like the first time, there’s clarity involving the NFL Draft.
Not only is the NFL Scouting Combine over, but free agency has brought further understanding about the direction of some teams. The Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers also helped answer some questions at the top when the two swapped draft picks in the first round.
Still, mock drafts are an imperfect science. Without access to each team’s war rooms, it’s difficult to predict what each team will do during the draft. That doesn’t mean mock drafts don’t have value, though. Mock drafts are the perfect way to discuss prospects as they relate to the team fit and help predict potential moves around the board.
As a friendly reminder, my mock drafts are not based on what I would do. Instead, they’re based on what I think NFL teams will do and how they may operate in the draft. Don’t treat these mock drafts like gospel. Instead, use them as thought experiments as we head into April.
Like my other mock drafts, this includes some trades during the first round. However, there is no compensation for these trades. I’m leaving that up to you guys, instead. Let your hearts go wild.
1. Carolina Panthers (via CHI): QB CJ Stroud, Ohio State
The Carolina Panthers helped shake up the top of the draft for us, trading up to the first overall pick in a package that included multiple first-round picks and wide receiver D.J. Moore.
The Panthers obviously traded up for a quarterback, and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud makes the most sense. Stroud is likely the most NFL-ready quarterback in the draft, meaning the Panthers can let him start and work through any problems he may have. Stroud is the NFL Draft equivalent of Chris Paul, offering elite accuracy and understanding of the game to help any offense.
2. Houston Texans: QB Bryce Young, Alabama
I still have concerns about Bryce Young’s frame, but that won’t stop the Houston Texans from taking him. Not only are the Texans begging for a franchise quarterback, but Young found ways to work through the concerns about his height in college football’s toughest conference.
Although the SEC is not the NFL, Young is a natural quarterback. There aren’t a lot of throws he can’t make, and his ability to use his athleticism when necessary is an excellent trait for someone of his size. If the Texans keep Young in the shotgun, he can be an effective quarterback in the league, especially with the Texans’ foundation on offense.
3. Arizona Cardinals: EDGE Will Anderson, Alabama
This is likely a spot where a team desperate for a quarterback can trade up, but the Arizona Cardinals would be wise to stay put. The Cardinals lost a lot of pass-rushing depth in the off-season, including Zach Allen (free agency) and J.J. Watt (retirement).
After seeing two quarterbacks go off the board, the Cardinals can take the best defensive player, whether Will Anderson or Georgia’s Jalen Carter. With the current legal problems surrounding Carter, it’s unlikely he’s the first defensive player off the board, meaning the honors go to Anderson.
4. Indianapolis Colts: QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
Anthony Richardson makes sense for the Indianapolis Colts. Although there is a possibility that they may have to move up a pick, the Colts are able to stay put at their original selection to take Richardson.
Richardson immediately boosts the fortunes of the Colts, giving them the young quarterback they’ve desired. He might need some time on the bench before starting, but Richardson’s ceiling is intriguing, especially with a team like the Colts.
5. Seattle Seahawks: iDL Jalen Carter, Georgia
The Seattle Seahawks are a prime candidate to trade down, and that’s for a good reason. After making the playoffs last season, the Seahawks have a top-five pick from the Russell Wilson trade. Regardless of how the Seahawks want to take this, they can upgrade their team in the first round.
In this case, the Seahawks can’t pass up the talent of defensive lineman Jalen Carter. He’s arguably the best defensive player in the draft, and it looked like he had a chance to go first overall before the Bears traded the pick. His fall down the board allows the Seahawks to get a player with an incredible physical skillset.
6. Detroit Lions: EDGE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
The Detroit Lions made it a point to sign established cornerbacks during the legal tampering period of NFL free agency. Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Mosley don’t remove the possibility of them drafting a cornerback, but it does mean they don’t have to settle for one with the first pick.
Instead, the Lions take a pass rusher with a high upside. Tyree Wilson is a great fit next to Aidan Hutchinson, and the two should combine to build a feared pass-rushing duo for many years.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: OT Paris Johnson, Jr.
Look, I don’t know what the Las Vegas Raiders are doing. The Raiders signed quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to a contract when the legal tampering period opened but later traded tight end Darren Waller for a third-round pick. After two days of legal tampering, it feels like the Raiders are stuck in-between plans, and they know which way to go.
That lack of direction makes this pick a challenging one. They have holes across the field, especially in the defensive backfield, but they desperately need offensive linemen. That’s where Paris Johnson, Jr. comes in. The Ohio State Buccaneer is capable of playing guard or tackle, meaning he can find a spot in the NFL. The wise strategy for Johnson would be to start him at tackle. Then, if he struggles, you can kick him inside and have him play offensive guard.
8. Atlanta Falcons: CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
The Atlanta Falcons have set themselves up well during free agency, meaning they can use this pick on anyone. The best player on the board is likely cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who drops due to teams like the Lions prioritizing a different position.
Gonzalez is an excellent fit in the Falcons’ defense. Not only is Gonzalez able to mirror prospects because of his fluid movements, but he can attack the ball and create big-time players for the defense. Gonzalez would be a day-one starter for the Falcons, building them a fearful secondary.
9. Chicago Bears: OT Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
The Chicago Bears have likely removed themselves from contention for any top defensive players, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get a high-impact player to help their quarterback. If the Bears want to maximize Justin Fields’ talent, getting quality offensive linemen should be a priority. Peter Skoronski isn’t the final solution, but he’s a quality lineman who will help Fields stay upright. Like Paris Johnson, Jr., the Bears will likely start Skoronski at tackle and see how he develops there.
10. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
Rumors have surfaced that the Philadelphia Eagles are considering offers for cornerback Darius Slay, which likely indicates that they plan on retooling the secondary during the draft.
If that’s the plan, Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon makes a lot of sense. Witherspoon is an explosive cornerback with quality ball skills. He’s comfortable in either man or zone coverage and can impact a team immediately.
11. Tennessee Titans: OT Broderick Jones
The Tennessee Titans desperately need offensive line help, and Broderick Jones is the best available offensive lineman. There is a possibility that the Titans choose to go with a pass rusher, but they need to ensure that their next quarterback has the framework to succeed. Jones is an uber-athletic tackle who will step in immediately and grow as a prospect.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via HOU): QB Will Levis, Kentucky
Will Levis was a frustrating evaluation last season because it seems everything went wrong for him. The switch in offensive coordinator meant a shift in philosophy, which Levis failed to adjust to. Similarly, Kentucky didn’t have the wide receivers to help support Levis, and it felt like he was doing a lot of stuff himself.
In this mock draft, Levis falls to the teens, which allows a team like the Tampa Bay Buccanneers to trade up. Unlike Kentucky, the Buccaneers can help Levis grow with strong wide receivers and a new offensive coordinator in Dave Canales, who comes from Seattle.
13. Green Bay Packers (via NYJ): S Brian Branch, Alabama
As Aaron Rodgers emerges from solitary confinement, the darkness of this part of the draft becomes a little lighter. It seems likely that Rodgers will be traded to the New York Jets, and while the package is unknown, there’s a good chance that a first-round pick is involved.
With that pick, the Green Bay Packers select Alabama safety Brian Branch. Branch is a versatile safety, who can play both cornerback and safety. The Packers need more secondary pieces, and his versatility should help elevate the defense.
14. New England Patriots: EDGE Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
Even though I do not like what Lukas Van Ness has to offer, the NFL will likely feel different. Physically, few players can compete with Van Ness, and his potential versatility across the defensive line will intrigue teams. The New England Patriots feel like a good fit for Van Ness, who can develop as a pass rusher with the Patriots’ defensive scheme.
15. Green Bay Packers: TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
The Green Bay Packers went safety in the first round, which means they can pivot to give new quarterback Jordan Love some support. They’ll need a wide receiver, but tight end Michael Mayer should give Love a reliable target. Mayer does most of his work over the middle as an in-line tight end, and that should help the Packers evaluate what they have at quarterback.
16. Washington Commanders: CB Joey Porter, Jr., Penn State
At one point, it seemed like the Commanders could have traded up for a quarterback, but recent moves indicate they like sophomore quarterback Sam Howell. As a result, the Commanders would be wise to upgrade at cornerback through the draft. Joey Porter, Jr. fits nicely with the Commanders and should start immediately as a boundary cornerback.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: iOL O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida
The Pittsburgh Steelers will likely take a cornerback or offensive lineman in the first round. Cornerback is a bigger need, but the position is deeper than offensive guard. As a result, the Steelers take O’Cyrus Torrence to help secure the trenches.
Torrence would start immediately for the Steelers, replacing Kevin Dotson along the line. Provided he develops as expected, he could be a staple along the offensive line for the Steelers.
18. Detroit Lions: CB Cam Smith, South Carolina
The Detroit Lions could have taken a cornerback in the top ten, but taking Tyree Wilson was too good to pass up. Instead, the Lions end up with South Carolina’s Cam Smith later on. Smith stole headlines at the NFL Scouting Combine, showcasing his fluid movement to the entire league. Even though the Lions signed Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley, Smith makes too much sense for what the Lions are building.
19. Houston Texans (via TB): EDGE Nolan Smith, Georgia
Will the Houston Texans use their second first-round pick on a wide receiver or a pass rusher? That’s something that’s grappled with me for a while, but I think pass rusher makes more sense. Not only is there slightly more talent at wide receiver in the draft, but the Texans desperately need pass rushers.
Nolan Smith makes sense for the Texans, especially after his NFL Scouting Combine performance. Even if he’s not fully developed as a pass rusher, teams will bet on his athleticism because it’s a valuable factor.
20. New York Giants (via SEA): WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
I expect that there will be a run of wide receivers in the late part of the first round. Between teams like the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, and others, plenty of teams need offensive weapons.
The New York Giants recently traded for tight end Darren Waller, but there’s no reason to stop there. Take one look at their receiver depth chart, and you’ll see why trading up for a player like Quentin Johnston makes sense. The compensation might be too steep for the Giants after the Waller trade, but Johnston can be a legitimate WR1 in the NFL.
21. Miami Dolphins: Forfeited
The Miami Dolphins forfeited their draft pick after an NFL investigation revealed that the team violated the league’s policies regarding tampering.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: EDGE BJ Ojulari, LSU
The Los Angeles Chargers look to be going all-in on the 2023 season, and if that’s the case, drafting an additional pass rusher is never a bad idea. Even though the Chargers have both Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, you can never have enough pass rushers who can impact the game.
Ojulari’s draft stock is interesting, but I still believe he will be a first-round selection. Ultimately, teams will bet on pass rushers with athleticism and pass-rush upside, and that’s what Ojulari offers. With the depth the Chargers have, they can use Ojulari as a pass rusher as he tries to develop his run defense.
22. Baltimore Ravens: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
We’re assuming that Lamar Jackson remains with the Baltimore Ravens in this mock draft, so let’s get him some help. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a developed route runner who will offer Jackson a reliable target in the passing game. Although the Ravens have other needs, they can’t keep neglecting the wide receiver position and expect to win with Jackson. Getting him a slot receiver who can get open with ease should help elevate Jackson’s game and the entire offense.
23. Minnesota Vikings: WR Zay Flowers, Boston College
The Minnesota Vikings need to find a partner-in-crime for Justin Jefferson, and Zay Flowers makes sense. There are few, if any, receivers in this draft with the same athletic profile as Flowers, and that profile makes him a threat to take the top off of the defense on any given play.
Knowing that Jefferson operates best in the intermediate part of the field, Flowers could help open up situations for him in these spots. It could also help open up more opportunities for a player like TJ Hockenson because the defenses would have to account for Flowers’ speed.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: OT Dawand Jones, Ohio State
As the legal tampering period opened, Jawaan Taylor surprised many by signing a mega-deal with the Kansas City Chiefs. That deal leaves the Jacksonville Jaguars looking for a long-term option at offensive tackle. That opens the door for Dawand Jones. Jones has stolen the show during the pre-draft process because of his size and strength. He primarily played right tackle in college, which will open up an opportunity to start immediately.
25. Seattle Seahawks (via NYG): CB Deonte Banks, Maryland
The Seattle Seahawks need another cornerback, especially if they want to maximize the production of Coby Bryant. Bryant is best suited to play slot cornerback, which means the Seahawks could select a player like Deonte Banks. Banks is a fluid cornerback with good ball skills, and he should slot in as an immediate starter for the Seahawks.
26. Dallas Cowboys: WR Josh Downs, North Carolina
If the Dallas Cowboys want to maximize their offense, acquiring another wide receiver is an obvious solution. Despite being under 6 feet, Downs is an athletic wide receiver that can push defenses deep. He’d also help open up more opportunities for CeeDee Lamb to impact the game, which should be a priority for the Cowboys’ offense.
27. Buffalo Bills: RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
The Buffalo Bills have been quiet to start the off-season, meaning they’re either content with most of their roster or cooking something dangerous. Bijan Robinson would fit in the latter part of that. Robinson gives the Bills a running game they haven’t seen with Josh Allen and will help keep this offense sustainable as the season progresses. At Texas, Robinson proved that he can impact the game in different ways, and the Bills need that from their running back.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: OT Anton Harrison, Oklahoma
Between La’El Collins and Jonah Williams, the Cincinnati Bengals have a giant question mark at offensive tackle. Anton Harrison would help solve those question marks, especially if they value a left tackle. The problem would be that Harrison is relatively inexperienced at right tackle, meaning there would be a learning curve if the Bengals want him to play there. However, coming into the NFL with some experience at right tackle should help ease that transition.
29. New Orleans Saints: iDL Bryan Bresee, Clemson
Bryan Bresee had a rough 2022 season off the field, and that could have affected his play on it. That means he’ll likely fall down the board as teams try and figure out what to take from last season. The Saints lost a lot of talent along the defensive line, meaning they can capitalize on Bresee’s fall down the board. With the way their roster is currently constructed, Bresee would be an immediate starter and should help make an impact.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: iDL Adetomiwa Adebawore, Northwestern
Northwestern’s Adetomiwa Adebawore tested out of this world during the NFL Scouting Combine, and that should only help his draft stock. Whether he’s a first-round pick is up to debate, but there is a good chance that Adebawore has his name called relatively early.
The Philadelphia Eagles feel like a team that would take a shot on Adebawore’s skillset. Howie Roseman likes to build the trenches, and that’s what Adebawore would do. After losing Javon Hargrave in free agency, there’s a good chance that whoever they pick along the offensive line is a day-one contributor.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: EDGE Derick Hall, Auburn
The Kansas City Chiefs made some signings during the off-season to address the offensive line, and that should allow them to look elsewhere in the draft. With the uncertainty at edge rusher, the Chiefs should look towards that position. Derick Hall would be a logical first-round pick, given his explosiveness and skillet as a power rusher. He’d likely be an immediate contributor for the Chiefs, especially on third downs.
