It’s Thanksgiving, so it’s time to get all the last-minute things at the store you forgot (no fun at all), loosen the belt, and be ready for food, family, and football (generally, a lot of fun). If you’re in personnel for an NFL team, it’s also time to get serious about the 2023 NFL draft. Whether you’re a Super Bowl contender or playing out the string in a hopeless season, area scouts are reporting to head scouts and directors of player personnel, and general managers and coaching staffs are getting their voices in, as well.
So, with this mock draft, and given the holiday theme, it’s time to round out the NFL’s better teams, and to give hope to the hopeless.
Note: The Miami Dolphins, who would have picked 29th were the 2023 draft to start today, forfeited their first-round pick as punishment for tampering.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise indicated).
1. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Young has already proven to be an outstanding distributor and improviser; the most common pro sports comparison for him seems to be Steph Curry as opposed to any NFL quarterback. There are times when he gets in trouble looking to do a bit too much, but the upside is fierce, and after watching their offense circle the drain this season, the Texans would welcome Young’s attributes as a massive upgrade.
2. Carolina Panthers: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
There are some who will debit Stroud because he’s a more “in the box” quarterback, but after what they’ve endured since Cam Newton’s peak, we think the Panthers would readily accept the concept of a quarterback fitting in any box at all. Stroud has 35 touchdown passes to just four interceptions this season, he is averaging 9.7 yards per attempt, and his 129.9 passer rating leads all draft-eligible quarterbacks in this class.
3. Chicago Bears: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
The Bears will never extract the most out of Justin Fields’ talent until they protect him. Allowing 99 total pressures on just 326 passing attempts isn’t going to get it done. Fashanu hasn’t allowed a single sack in his two years with the Nittany Lions, and he’s strong and agile enough as a run-blocker to fit right into this offense.
4. Las Vegas Raiders: Jalen Carter, DI, Georgia
Were Carter a quarterback, he’d be the top pick in this draft by a crushing margin, because he’s the best player in this class. That he lasts to fourth overall has nothing to do with his talent; we’ve seen him wreck entire sides of offensive lines often enough to know how great he is. The Raiders have other needs, especially along the offensive line and in the secondary, but Carter is just too good to pass up here.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos): Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
After several consecutive drafts that would get most head coaches and executives fired, Pete Carroll and John Schneider hit a grand slam plus in the 2022 draft, with major first-year contributions all the way up and down the class. Now, the real meat of the Russell Wilson trade kicks in, and if Seattle can get Anderson here, it fills one of their most glaring positional needs. Anderson’s 12 sacks and 52 total pressures lap the field among draft-eligible edge defenders from major schools, and there’s no reason to believe he wouldn’t have a transformative effect on Seattle’s defensive line right away.
6. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams): Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
The 4-6 Lions are suddenly kind of semi-playoff relevant despite a secondary that’s allowed an opponent passer rating of 99.4, fourth-worst in the league. The travails of that cornerback group have been obvious, though it’s nice to see 2020 third-overall pick Jeff Okudah finally getting the hang of things. Adding Ringo to that secondary would be a major bump for Aaron Glenn’s defense. Ringo has become a lockdown force on the NCAA’s best defense over the last two seasons, and he’s been even better in 2022 than in 2021, with 27 catches allowed on 44 targets for 384 yards, 127 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 70.6. As he’s done this against some of the best receivers in college football, the like-as-like translation to the NFL looks pretty good.
7. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns): Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Now that the Texans have Bryce Young, they should give their new quarterback a receiver capable of causing serious defensive issues at the NFL level. At 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, and with the capability to scald opponents deep (seven catches of 20 or more air yards this season for 277 yards and five touchdowns), Johnston neatly fits the archetype of the modern game-breaking target at a level the Texans need just as much as they need that quarterback upgrade.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
We don’t really know what the Steelers’ offense will look like long-term. It’s not entirely obvious that either offensive coordinator Matt Canada or quarterback Kenny Pickett can provide positive answers. What we do know is that 2022 will almost certainly go down as Mike Tomlin’s first season with a losing record, so it’ll be up to the big brains in the building to figure some things out. Protection has been a huge issue in that offense. The Steelers went a bit WTF with their line personnel this season, and it’s showed all over the place. Left tackle Can Moore has allowed five sacks and 28 total pressures, and some of them have been real howlers. Johnson hasn’t allowed a single sack or quarterback this season (just eight quarterback hurries), and he’d be a plug-and-play run-blocker for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The Jaguars have a franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence who hasn’t always played like a franchise quarterback. Jacksonville’s receiver group led by Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, and Zay Jones has been decent, but the addition of a good-sized target like Addison, who can win at the intermediate and deep levels both outside and in the slot, would help everybody involved to take the proverbial (and desperately-needed) next step.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans Saints): Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
It’s not that the Eagles need another edge-rusher; we’re talking about improvements to perhaps the NFL’s most loaded roster. What makes Murphy such an interesting option for Jonathan Gannon’s defense is that, at 6-foot-5 and 275 pounds, he’s able to win on the edge, and kick inside on passing downs. For a team that runs as many five-man and overload fronts as the Eagles do, and as multiple as they are with their line personnel, Murphy would be a great addition for several different reasons.
11. Arizona Cardinals: Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU
The 4-7 Cardinals have been one of the NFL’s bigger disappointments this season, and the play on the field indicates real needs at several positions. Ideally, Kliff Kingsbury would be able to attack defenses with DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, and Zach Ertz on the field at the same time in 2023, but maybe reinforcements are in order, as Kyler Murray has regressed. Boutte had a rough start to his 2022 campaign, but he’s come around of late, and he has the attributes to stretch the field in Kingsbury’s preferred four-receiver concepts.
12. Green Bay Packers: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
With all the talk about Aaron Rodgers’ target deficits in 2022, here are his stats with two tight ends on the field this season: 56 completions on 78 attempts for 538 yards, 220 air yards, seven touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 120.6 — only Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott have been more efficient with two tight ends on the field. So, given where the Packers are picking at this point, maybe they should just go for the best available target as opposed to the best available wide receiver. That’s probably Mayer, who has proven to be just as dynamic in open space as he is aligned to the formation, and he has the blocking ability to fit right in with Green Bay’s balanced attack.
13. Detroit Lions: Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon
Two Sewells for the Lions? Why not? Detroit’s defense doesn’t just need all kinds of help in the secondary, which is why we’ve already given them Georgia cornerback Kelee Ringo. They also need an every-down linebacker who can not only run the defense, but can also make plays all over the field. Penei Sewell’s younger brother is build old-school at 6-foot-2 and 253 pounds, but he’s more than just a run-thumper; he can win everywhere from the edge to the box to the slot.
14. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The 2023 Colts will have all kinds of decisions to make, starting with their next head coach. Whether it’s Jeff Saturday or not, this team also needs to nail down its long-term quarterback future, which has been in flux since Andrew Luck’s retirement. The Colts can move on from Matt Ryan in the new league year without a considerable financial penalty, but what if they kept him on the roster and selected a guy like Richardson, who has every physical took you want at the position, and his acumen has improved this season. My 4-Down Territory co-host Luke Easterling recently wrote a piece comparing Richardson to Josh Allen, and while that sounds nuts if you consider where Allen is now, it’s a very good comparison when you consider how unfinished Allen was when the Buffalo Bills drafted him.
15. Atlanta Falcons: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
Everybody in the NFL is looking for the next do-it-all linebacker, and Simpson has proven to be such a player in Clemson’s defense. This would be great news for a Falcons defense that needs a ton of help at both edge and at linebacker. Simpson is still getting his coverage chops together, but he’s an outstanding tackler with range all of the field, and if you’re a quarterback looking at him either from the box or off the edge, it’s going to make you nervous.
16. Los Angeles Chargers: Bryan Bresee, DI, Clemson
Another team with a very clear need is the Chargers, whose run defenses under head coach Brandon Staley could be kindly characterized as really, really terrible. The 2022 Chargers have allowed 5.75 running back yards per carry, which is the worst in the league by almost half a yard; the New York Giants are next at 5.32. Staley has also gotten precious little pass rush out of his interior defensive linemen this season. Bresee, based on his college tape, could provide instant relief in both areas from nose to three-tech.
17. Washington Commanders: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Speaking of quarterbacks compared to Josh Allen, as we were a minute ago… a lot of people are looking at Levis, ignoring the aspects of his play that are clearly under development, and banking on the idea that with his size, arm strength, and “moxie,” he’ll have the kind of outlier professional development that Allen has enjoyed. Well, let “outlier” be your guide there. If Levis is to have that kind of NFL ascent, he’ll need to be in a situation where he can take time to understand NFL defenses, in a system that’s favorable for quarterbacks. The Commanders have both, and though this pick would be a needless repudiation of 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell, someone’s going to bite on Levis’ raw talent in the first round.
18. New York Jets: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
When the Jets benched second-year quarterback Zach Wilson on Wednesday, head coach Robert Saleh insisted that Wilson’s career isn’t over with the team, and that this is just a “reset.” Given how unproductive Wilson’s been on the field, and how much he doesn’t seem to get it off the field, maybe Saleh and his crew should be in for a bigger reset here. If that’s the case, the Jets could do far, far worse than Hooker, the quarterback who, before suffering a torn ACL in the Vols’ loss to South Carolina last Saturday, had competed 696% of his passes this season for 9.5 yards per attempt, 27 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. The injury, combined with Hooker’s age (he’ll turn 25 on January 13), and some concerns about how well he’ll work in the NFL based on Tennessee’s offense? Well, ACL recoveries aren’t what they used to be, NFL quarterbacks are playing well into their late thirties and early forties these days, and a look at Hooker’s tape will show you that he’s ready for the next step.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Before they went off on the Seahawks in Week 10 to the tune of 161 yards on the ground, the Buccaneers were suffering through a season in which they had one of the worst rushing attacks in the Super Bowl era. That’s not likely to change too much over the rest of the season, as that unexpected bounty was more about Seattle’s run fits collapsing than a clear breakout for the Bucs from the line to the backs.
So, maybe it’s time for the Bucs to get all the “running backs don’t matter” people to get all mad at them by taking one in the first round. Robinson is the best back in this class, and he can do it all — run with power regardless of scheme, create explosive plays at the second and third levels, catch the ball, and block. Yes, we think that Rachaad White is an interesting rotational option, but Robinson is a franchise back for a team that wants their offense designed around one to a degree.
20. Denver Broncos (from Miami Dolphins via San Francisco 49ers: Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, Notre Dame
The Broncos traded edge-rusher Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins for this pick, so it’d be smart to get another top-tier pass-rusher under club control for less money as they try to figure out what the heck is wrong with their offense. With his 10 sacks, 30 total pressures, and 23 stops, Foskey would be an excellent addition to a defense that is already playing at a lights-out level most of the time.
21. Seattle Seahawks: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
A big, aggressive, cornerback with an alpha personality? For Pete Carroll, Porter checks all the boxes when it comes to what the Seahawks want in the position. This season, the 6-foot-2, 198-pound Porter has allowed just 13 catches on 28 targets for 123 yards, 43 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, no interceptions (but nine pass breakups), and an opponent passer rating of 59.1. Some teams may be put off by the lack of interceptions this season, but the tape tells the real story, and in this case, it’d tough to imagine a better marriage of player and team preference.
22. New England Patriots: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
It’s unusual for Bill Belichick to have precious few answers when it comes to his offensive line, but that’s been the case in 2022. That’s partly because offensive “masterminds” Matt Patricia and Joe Judge have installed different concepts, but overall, it’s been kind of a mess. Left tackle Trent Brown has allowed six sacks this season, and former left tackle Isaiah Wynn has allowed four sacks and 16 pressures mostly on the right side.
Belichick would do well to turn to Georgia’s offense for at least one of those answers in the person of Broderick Jones. The 6-foot-4, 315-pound Jones has handled the left side expertly for the Dawgs, allowing no sacks, no quarterback hits, and five quarterback hurries all season. He’s also perfectly capable of providing Excedrin headaches in the run game, which fits what this offense likes to do, and he shouldn’t be thought of as an automatic guard in the NFL based on his size.
23. Cincinnati Bengals: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
The Bengals went all-in on a redefinition of their offensive line in the 2022 offseason with the acquisition of three new starters — guard Alex Cappa, center Ted Karras, and right tackle La’el Collins. While the new guys are starting to work together well, there’s still the issue of current left tackle Jonah Williams, who has allowed nine quarterback sacks in 2022 after giving up 10 in 2021. No bueno.
Like Broderick Jones, Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski is a 6-foot-4, 315-pound left tackle who has shown the ability to drive in the run game and protect his quarterback — he has allowed just one sack and five total pressures all season. Skoronski isn’t quite at the same level as Rashawn Slater, his predecessor at the left tackle spot, but he’d be an immediate and decisive improvement over what Cincinnati has at the position right now.
24. Buffalo Bills: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Injuries have limited Smith-Njigba to just 60 snaps this season, but you can get a great sense of how he’s trucked enemy defenses by going back to watch his 2021 season, when he caught 95 passes on 112 targets for 1,595 yards, and nine touchdowns. Perhaps most importantly for the Bills’ current receiver needs, Smith-Njigba was (and is) a full-scale slot bully. In 2021, 96 of his catches, 104 of his targets, and seven of his touchdowns came from the slot. 11 of those catches and three of those touchdowns were on passes of 20 or more air yards. Put a healthy Smith-Njigba in Buffalo’s passing game, and watch defensive coordinators add extra frown lines in a big hurry.
25. Baltimore Ravens: B.J. Ojulari, EDGE, LSU
Justin Houston has been a great story this season with 10 sacks and 25 total pressures at age 33, and second-year man Odafe Oweh is getting pressures if now sacks, but it’s clear that Mike Macdonald’s Ravens defense needs reinforcements when it comes to outside pass-rushers. Ojulari, who has put up 21 sacks and 122 total pressures in his three seasons with the Tigers, would be an outstanding addition.
26: Tennessee Titans: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
The Titans currently rank ninth in Defensive DVOA despite a secondary that has allowed 19 touchdowns — third-most in the NFL — and an opponent passer rating of 92.2. None of Tennessee’s outside cornerbacks have been consistently excellent this season, and when you’re relying on a run game and a run defense above all, that seems to scream “first-round playoff exit.” Smith, who has been a reliable lockdown guy for South Carolina over the last two seasons, could remedy that to a large degree as long as he can cut down on the penalties that have been the downside of his aggressive play personality.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah
Utah has put some great defensive backs in the NFL in recent years — from Eric Weddle to Jaylon Johnson. Phillips is next in line, and though you don’t hear as much about him as you do the other potentially dominant cornerbacks in this class, you give me the names of five corners in this group who can diagnose and close on the ball as well as he does, and I might want to argue with that. Phillips has allowed 39 catches on 62 targets this season for 434 yards, 267 yards after the catch, six interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 65.6. Phillips will allow the occasional big play (four touchdowns in 2022), but the traits are all there, and the Cowboys need someone at the position who can complement Trevon Diggs at the next level.
28. New York Giants: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
It’s kind of a miracle that the Giants have managed a 7-3 record with a receiver group that is dealing with a ton of injuries, and wasn’t that great when healthy. Building the whole plane out of Saquon Barkley works until it doesn’t. Assuming the Giants are in on Daniel Jones for 2023, that’s the primary need for Big Blue. Hyatt would certainly imprive things, as he’s been a major weapon for the Vols this season as Hendon Hooker’s primary target. With 64 catches on 85 targets for 1,181 yards and 15 touchdowns, not to mention 12 of those receptions on 21 targets over 20 air yards for 572 yards and eight touchdowns, Hyatt is the kind of field-stretching difference-maker head coach Brian Daboll desperately needs — and has had to do without.
29. Minnesota Vikings: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
With the exception of future Hall of Famer Patrick Peterson, who’s having a renaissance year at age 32, the Vikings don’t have much to brag about in the cornerback room. Gonzalez has been a revelation for the Ducks this season after transferring from Colorado, with 37 catches allowed on 62 targets for 473 yards, 196 yards after the catch, three touchdowns, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 79.6. Gonzalez allowed two of those touchdowns in his first six games of the season, so the arrow is definitely pointing up of late.
30. Kansas City Chiefs: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
Both things can be true: The Kansas City Chiefs have the NFL’s most terrifying offense, and their offensive tackles have not been getting it done this season. Between them, left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and right tackle Andrew Wylie have allowed eight sacks, nine quarterback hits, and 50 quarterback hurries. Brown is playing under the franchise tag, and it’s possible that his inability to stop edge-rushers from getting him on the back half of the arc is something the Chiefs have considered. If they’re ready to move on, Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison looks like the very model of a modern pass-blocking tackle. He’s allowed just one sack and seven total pressures this season, and his combination of strength, quickness, and agility would seem to make him a perfect match for this offense.
31. Philadelphia Eagles: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
As was the case with edge-rushers and the Myles Murphy pick at 10, the Eagles don’t really need a running back. They’re in the enviable position of not desperately needing anything, so with two first-round picks in this draft, they can load up to make certain things more dynamic. Philly’s offense is more about body blows and the run game feeding the passing game, and Gibbs would be an amazing fit with that overall concept. On runs out of run-pass options this season, Gibbs has 75 carries for 623 yards 4.1 yards after contact per attempt, and four touchdowns. Try dealing with THAT if you’re scheming for everything this offense can do.
