Let’s get this out of the way right now. The Chicago Bears have the first selection in the 2023 NFL Draft. They will not be taking a quarterback.
The Bears failed upward into the premier pick in this spring’s draft. That puts them in prime position to select Alabama passer and former Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young. They will not — or, since this is Chicago and logic is merely a suggestion, should not — do this with Justin Fields behind center. The second-year quarterback was electric in 2022 and single-handedly served as the optimism engine for a team that surrounded him with terrible blocking and an anonymous receiving corps.
Fields deserves the opportunity to see this through with a true NFL roster and the talent to bring the Bears to the postseason. Chicago will have no shortage of avenues to beef up its roster around him. First will be through an estimated league-high $92 million in salary cap space. Second will be via auctioning off the top overall selection to the highest bidder.
This puts our latest mock draft in a tough position. The Bears are unlikely to keep the first pick. The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are both in prime position to trade up thanks to their spots at No. 2 and No. 4, respectively. So while past rules have kept these mocks trade-free until the weeks leading up to the draft, we’ll have to bend that now that we know how the top three-quarters of the order will shake out.
Chicago is on the clock, but won’t be making its pick — not without a pressing need at quarterback and many holes to fill elsewhere. So who’ll step up and pay the Bears a franchise-building ransom?
1
Houston Texans (via projected trade with the Chicago Bears): QB Bryce Young, Alabama
Team needs: QB, WR, EDGE, LB, OL
The Texans’ Week 18 win over the Colts didn’t just stamp the Jeff Saturday era with one final (?) moment of schadenfreude; it also shoved Houston out of the first overall pick. Fortunately they can buy their way back into the top spot, where Young awaits to serve as the team’s next franchise quarterback. Here’s the deal:
Texans trade their 2023 first round pick (second overall), 2023 second round pick (33rd overall) and 2024 second round pick for the Bears’ first overall pick and fourth round pick (likely 103rd overall after compensatory selections are awarded).
Young isn’t perfect, but his penchant for playmaking and spinning hay into gold is a true NFL quality. He’ll have his work cut out for him behind a bottom five offensive line and a receiving corps led by free agent Chris Moore and 30-year-old Brandin Cooks, who doesn’t want to be part of a rebuild (but re-signed with the team two years ago anyway).
2
Chicago Bears (via projected trade with the Houston Texans): DL Jalen Carter, Georgia
Team needs: OL, WR, EDGE, DT, LB
This would be another great place to trade back — especially if the Indianapolis Colts don’t think their quarterback of the future will last until the fourth overall pick. That would give the Bears whomever drops between Carter and Will Anderson while securing a war chest of high value 2023 and 2024 picks.
But that’s a theoretical for another time. Today, three months from the draft, Carter is the guy. His ability to be a disruptor in the middle of the field gives him Aaron Donald/Chris Jones potential. Those are two players who make lives easier for every pass rusher around them while commanding double-teams up front. The Bears desperately need talent. Even at No. 2, they still pick up the draft’s most talented player.
3
Arizona Cardinals: EDGE Will Anderson, Alabama
Team needs: EDGE, CB, DT, OL, WR
Arizona, coachless after a four-win season, needs help just about everywhere — but not at quarterback. That makes the Cardinals a prime trade-back candidate. If they stay, however, they could add the draft’s top edge rusher in Anderson.
The Alabama star had 10 sacks and 17 tackles for loss and his 2022 was a disappointment. That’s how absurd his 2021 (17 sacks, 31 TFL) was. The Cardinals blitzed on 34 percent of their snaps last season (second-most in the NFL) but generated pressure on 22 percent of opponents’ dropbacks (13th-best). Anderson would reduce the reliance on blitzes and bolster a pass rush that had only 36 sacks in 2022.
4
Indianapolis Colts: QB CJ Stroud. Ohio State
Team needs: QB, CB, S, OL
The Colts stand pat and still grab the draft’s second-best quarterback. Unfortunately, we don’t quite know who that’ll be. Kentucky’s Will Levis has gained steam among draft experts for his mechanics and accuracy.
But Stroud, despite a relative downturn from his prosperous 2021, remains an explosive, game-changing passer. He torched Georgia for 348 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the Peach Bowl — a feat made all the more impressive by TCU’s bed-wetting the following week. Sure, he profits mightily from one of the NCAA’s top receiving corps, but the modern NFL repeatedly tells us young passers thrive when paired with playmakers. With the right core in place, Stroud could follow the lead of Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa or Joe Burrow.
5
Seattle Seahawks (via Denver Broncos): EDGE Myles Murphy, Clemson
Team needs: EDGE, S, LB, IOL, DT, CB
Anderson is off the board, but Seattle still has its pick of impactful edge rushers as it works to build a new Legion of Boom. Murphy is a 275-pound nightmare with 14.5 sacks and 25.5 tackles for loss in his last 23 games.
He’s capable of bending around offensive tackles or punching them backward and slicing inside. While he remains a bit raw, his physical tools and flashes of pure pocket-crunching ability make him a worthy top five pick — ahead of rising Texas Tech stud Tyree Wilson and teammate Bryan Bresee.
6
Detroit Lions (via Los Angeles Rams): DL Bryan Bresee, Clemson
Team needs: CB, S, LB, DT, QB
Detroit finished 2022 ranked 26th against the run in defensive DVOA and gave up 5.2 yards per carry. Adding Bresee not only gives the Lions a versatile interior lineman who can play multiple roles to clog running lanes, but a player who can shoot gaps, get upfield and make quarterbacks uncomfortable.
The 300-pound tackle can play over the center or in the gaps. While he doesn’t have the eye-opening stats of the defenders in front of him, he’s the kind of player whose presence allows others to thrive. Detroit, with young studs like Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill up front, will benefit from his services.
7
Las Vegas Raiders: QB Will Levis, Kentucky
Team needs: OL, DB, LB, DT, QB
The Raiders still have Derek Carr under contract, but he’s already penned his goodbye to the only franchise he’s ever known and Jarrett Stidham is not the answer. A free agent quarterback like Jimmy Garoppolo or … Tom Brady? A deal for Lamar Jackson? may be owner Mark Davis’s call.
With solid draft position, however, the path of least resistance would be to sign a lesser stopgap (a Teddy Bridgewater type) and draft Levis. Levis lost some key contributors from his 2021 breakthrough season but managed to record a more efficient 2022 despite Kentucky’s disappointing season. He’d be immediately propped up by a solid triumvirate of Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, though how much time he’d have to throw to them behind an offensive line that remains a work in progress is a vital question.
8
Atlanta Falcons: DL Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
Team needs: QB, OT, EDGE, LB, DB
The Falcons need a quarterback and would likely be part of the bidding for the No. 1 or No. 3 overall pick. But instead of panicking for the draft’s fourth-best passer, they can give Desmond Ridder another shot at the starting role and address one of their many other needs with the eighth selection.
Grady Jarrett led the Falcons in sacks in 2022. He had six. Atlanta’s edge rushers had 9.5 between them for a team with the second-worst pass rush in the NFL.
That makes Wilson a popular pick for the Falcons at No. 8. The Texas Tech star had seven sacks in each of the last two seasons and is a looming, bullying presence capable of creating havoc along the corners or cutting his way inside to swallow up blockers and allow blitzers to thrive. At 6-foot-6 and 275 pounds he plays like an angry redwood come to life.
9
Carolina Panthers: CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
Team needs: QB, RB, OL, EDGE, LB
Like the Falcons ahead of them, the Panthers need a quarterback. This would be a reasonable place to add whomever rises in scouts’ estimation through the pre-draft process. Reaching for Anthony Richardson is a popular choice here, but I’m going to wait until his pre-draft workouts and Pro Day throws before I buy in on the streaky Florida passer as a top 10 pick.
Instead, let’s add Gonzalez to a secondary that already features Jeremy Chinn and Jaycee Horn to give Charlotte one of the league’s best, youngest defensive backfields. Gonzalez is 6-foot-2, has low 4.3-second 40 speed and had four interceptions and seven pass breakups in 2022. He’s like a smaller, more polished version of Tariq Woolen, the big, speedy, raw UTSA prospect who went to the Seahawks in the fifth round and was named to the Pro Bowl as a rookie. Corner isn’t the Panthers’ biggest need and other options could be in play here — but Gonzalez feels likely to rocket up draft boards thanks to his physical attributes.
10
Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans Saints): CB Joey Porter Jr., Penn State
Team needs: EDGE, LB, RB, CB, DL
James Bradberry is a pending free agent and Philly may not have the salary cap space to re-sign him. Instead, the Eagles can use the top 10 pick gleaned from last year’s trade with the Saints to draft his replacement. A top ranked passing defense has been instrumental to this team’s success and adding a local(ish) star would help that unit reload on the fly.
Porter Jr. is a rock solid player who improved each year at Penn State. He allowed a minuscule 4.8 yards per target in coverage last season while knocking down 11 passes on 30 balls thrown his way. He has a very strong case to be 2023’s top cornerback and the first defensive back off the board. In this case, he slides slightly and winds up in position to win a Super Bowl, or at least make a long playoff run, in his first season as a pro.
11
Tennessee Titans: OT Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
Team needs: EDGE, CB, LB, OL, TE, WR
This draft board has shaken out wonderfully for Tennessee, who can take either the top offensive lineman or wide receiver — two positions of need. The question now is whether head coach Mike Vrabel wants to add another blue chip youngster to a thin WR corps currently led by Treylon Burks or opt to upgrade a group of blockers where three different players who logged at least 65 percent of the team’s offensive snaps are headed toward free agency.
Taylor Lewan will be 32 next season and hasn’t played a full 16 or 17 games since 2017. Nicholas Petit-Frere struggled considerably in his rookie campaign. That makes Skoronski, a versatile blocker with the highest floor of any o-lineman in the draft, Tennessee’s choice. Skoronski could play in place of Lewan or Petit-Frere or even kick inside as a rookie should those two rise to expectations next fall.
12
Houston Texans (via Cleveland Browns): WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
Team needs: QB, WR, EDGE, LB, OL
The Texans have a big chunk of salary cap space this offseason, but an underwhelming crop of free agent wideouts means they’ll have to look to the draft to find their new WR1. Good news: they’ve got their pick of the litter at No. 11.
Johnston remains the top receiving prospect after playing an integral role in TCU’s rise to the National Championship Game despite nagging injuries through much of the 2022 season. The 6-foot-4 wideout is a big play machine, averaging 19 yards per catch in his college career. He’s got blistering speed but, more importantly, an innate sense of how to bend defenses to his will.
He can find holes in zone coverage that make him stupidly open downfield. He can push press coverage in one direction, then flip corners around with an expert cut like a seasoned judoka with his precision routes. The Texans need someone to generate excitement for an unwatchable team. Johnston’s that guy.
13
New York Jets: OT Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State
Team needs: OL, EDGE, S, LB
The Jets are likely to add a veteran quarterback to a ready-made roster, which prevents them from reaching on an unproven prospect like Richardson. Instead, they can add extra help up front to keep that free agent or trade addition upright in the pocket.
Johnson could assume free agent George Fant’s spot in the lineup, pairing with a hopefully healthy Mekhi Becton to give Robert Saleh two young, massive bookends along his offensive line. New York isn’t going to find a franchise QB in 2023. Instead, the team can dedicate its offseason to make life as comfortable as possible for whichever flawed passer takes the reins.
14
New England Patriots: OT Broderick Jones, Georgia
Team needs: OT, LB, WR, S
As much as I’d love to see Michael Mayer piling on Gronk comparisons in a Patriots uniform, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith remain under contract and Bill Belichick has more pressing needs elsewhere. A wideout like Jordan Addison or Jaxon Smith-Njigba would make sense — Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers are both pending free agents — but Belichick may be hesitant to spend premium capital on a WR given how awful his picks have been in the past two decades.
Instead, we get the boring, but safe, selection of Jones. He’s capable of immediately replacing free agent Isaiah Wynn (another Georgia lineman taken in the first round by Belichick) at right tackle or assuming a spot at left tackle while moving Trent Brown back to the opposite side.
15
Green Bay Packers: TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
Team needs: WR, OL, EDGE, S, TE
It’s tough to pass up Jordan Addison or Jaxon Smith-Ngjiba here, but Mayer’s talent as a receiver and blocker would make him an immediate impact player in Green Bay. He’s equal parts security blanket and game-breaker — a tight end who can seal the edge on running plays and escape up the seam for big catches downfield. His presence would open the Packer passing game over the top for Christian Watson and create space in the short and intermediate ranges for Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs.
That’s not an elite receiving corps by any measure, but it’s much better than what Green Bay utilized in 2022. Robert Tonyan is approaching free agency and Marcedes Lewis, while still effective as a blocker, was a staple of many of his teammates’ first Madden games. The Pack need an upgrade and get one with the draft’s top tight end.
16
Washington Commanders: CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia
Team needs: QB, OL, CB, S, LB
Ringo’s slide ends here, assuming the Commanders act rationally (they won’t, so pencil in Anthony Richardson if you’re inclined). The Georgia standout sealed up the Bulldogs’ 2021 title with an interception, then had a pass defensed and a forced fumble in the Peach Bowl against Ohio State 51 weeks later. He’s big (6-foot-2, 205 pounds), fast and productive on a big stage.
Washington fielded a top 10 defense last fall, but needs reinforcements in the secondary — especially at cornerback, where 2020 signing William Jackson III failed to pan out. Ringo brings CB1 power to a group that punched above its weight class last season. He’s not the hype-generating quarterback Dan Snyder hopes will make fans forget about the dumpster fire he runs, but he’s a potential star just the same.
17
Pittsburgh Steelers: OG O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida
Team needs: OL, CB, DT, LB
Mike Tomlin keeps this team winning by minimizing risk and opting to build slowly around a young quarterback with a run-heavy offense. Torrence, a 347-pound steamroller, is the logical next step in that evolution. While he’s not the left tackle Pittsburgh needs, he’s 2023’s top interior lineman and the kind of player who finishes blocks at the next level to make life hell for inside linebackers.
The Steelers could opt for cornerback help here if one of the Gonzalez-Porter-Ringo trio slide or could grab a rising tackle like Anton Harrison or Dawand Jones. But Torrence makes sense right now, even if he doesn’t play a position of extreme need, thanks to the value he’d bring to a run game that’s instrumental in opening up the field for Kenny Pickett.
18
Detroit Lions: CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
Team needs: CB, S, LB, DT, QB
Detroit was bad against both the run and the pass in 2022. After shoring up the defensive line with Bresee, Dan Campbell gets to add a high-upside, proven corner to boost his secondary. Witherspoon has a penchant for getting to the ball — his 14 passes defensed in 2022 stand as proof — and he’s versatile enough to handle assignments in the slot or split out along the sideline.
The Lions allowed 7.0 net yards per attempt last season, second-worst in the NFL. Witherspoon isn’t a household name, but he’s a productive defensive back who shows up in big moments and can track wideouts whether he’s in man or zone coverage.
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
Team needs: IOL, QB, CB, S, EDGE
Sure, let’s get wild with this one. Richardson is a high risk, high reward first round pick with all the tools to be an NFL starter but issues with decision making, consistency and turnovers. He completed less than 54 percent of his passes in 2022 but also ran for more than 650 yards and nine touchdowns in a league where sacks are counted as negative rushes. The potential for greatness is there.
While Tampa may be scared to draft less successful Jameis Winston, the fact remains Tom Brady appears unlikely to return for 2023 and the Bucs have the second-worst cap situation in the league this offseason. A rebuild looms. Richardson could be the centerpiece. Or he could be a disaster.
20
Seattle Seahawks: LB Trenton Simpson, Clemson
Team needs: EDGE, LB, IOL, DT, CB
The Seahawks got their edge rusher at No. 5. Now they bring a versatile leader to the middle of their defense in Simpson, a player capable of standing up against the run or pass as well as bringing occasional heat as a blitzer. He had 13 sacks in 33 career games.
Seattle badly needs an upgrade at the position and could bring chaos next to the steady tackling (and limited coverage) of Cody Barton. Simpson’s sideline-to-sideline speed would be a boon for a defense that repeatedly was gashed by opposing tight ends (to the tune of 1,115 yards, second-most in the NFL) and gave up nearly five yards per carry on the ground.
21
Miami Dolphins: Pick forfeited
Team needs: EDGE, TE, RB, LB, S
The NFL docked Miami this pick and a 2023 third rounder and fined team owner $1.5 million for violating “the integrity of the game” as it pertained to tampering with then-Saints head coach Sean Payton and Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady.
22
Los Angeles Chargers: WR Jordan Addison, USC
Team needs: OL, CB, LB, DL
Keenan Allen is on the wrong side of 30. Mike Williams hasn’t played a complete season since 2018. Even if those two return to the peak of their powers in 2023 Justin Herbert could use a complementary piece in a passing offense that plateaued last fall. Addison, an ultra productive wideout who wasn’t able to match the hype he brought with him from Pittsburgh to USC, would fill that role with the potential to be an elite WR1.
Addison and Williams would give Herbert a pair of elite downfield threats capable of generating separation and commanding safety help. Allowing Herbert enough time to make those throws behind an injury-riddled offensive line, however, is another challenge altogether.
23
Baltimore Ravens: WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
Team needs: WR, EDGE, DL, CB
This spot could be Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s if the Ohio State standout can prove he’s back to full health through the pre-draft process. If he remains a question mark, the Ravens could opt for Hyatt to bring his burner speed and explosive playmaking to pair with Rashod Bateman atop the team’s depth chart.
Hyatt broke out in a major way, rising from role player to All-American in a 1,267-yard, 15 touchdown campaign for the best Tennessee team in two decades. He commands double-coverage and opens the field for his teammates — something Bateman, Mark Andrews and whomever is throwing passes for Baltimore in 2023 could badly use. While his collegiate resume is thin, his potential is too high to pass up for a team that trotted out an XFL-caliber receiving corps to finish 2022.
24
Minnesota Vikings: S Brian Branch, Alabama
Team needs: EDGE, CB, S, LB, TE
Minnesota could opt for a cornerback here or beef up a veteran pass rush by being the first team to pull from the second tier of edge rushers. Instead, the Vikings get the draft’s top safety in Branch, a versatile defensive back who can handle multiple positions in the NFL.
The Alabama product is a ballhawk (23 passes defensed in three seasons) capable of creeping up to the line of scrimmage to wreak havoc (14 tackles for loss in 2022). He’d bring immediate value to the league’s 26th-ranked passing defense. His positional flexibility would be a boon for a team likely to add secondary talent throughout the offseason. Additionally, Harrison Smith is about to turn 34 years old; drafting Branch gives the Vikings a viable succession plan.
25
Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Cam Smith, South Carolina
Team needs: DL, CB, S, OG
Two first-round caliber corners remain at No. 24. The Jags get the higher ceiling option in Smith, a star for the Gamecocks who served as an active deterrent whenever he lined up against opponents’ WR1s. He allowed just a 36.5 passer rating in coverage in 2021, then saw his counting stats dip in 2022 because quarterbacks had little interest in challenging him downfield.
Jacksonville has a rising young defense, but also needs upgrades in coverage. The team’s passing defense ranked 30th in overall DVOA last fall. Smith brings an immediate impact as a slot corner who can grow into soon-to-be 30-year-old Darious Williams’ role when needed.
26
New York Giants: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
Team needs: WR, CB, LB, QB, S
If the team extends Daniel Jones — and given the results of 2022, a modest three-year, $100 million deal with something like $40 million guaranteed and an out in 2024 makes sense — he’ll need someone to throw to. A depressed free agent market will bring the Giants to the draft hoping to find a running mate for Wan’Dale Robinson, a hopefully recovered Sterling Shepard and a possibly re-signed Darius Slayton and Richie James.
Smith-Njigba could be an immediate difference maker. He looked like a top five pick after finishing 2021 with 60 catches and 958 yards in his final five games alone, but a hamstring injury mostly kept him off the field in 2022. If he’s healthy and tears up the Combine he’ll see his stock rise well above the 25th pick. For now, however, he could be a massive bargain for a New York team in dire need of pass catchers.
27
Dallas Cowboys: RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
Team needs: OL, LB, S, CB
This isn’t a need-based selection. This is a Jerry Jones selection. Ezekiel Elliott had the least productive and least efficient season of his career. His -58 rush yards over expected were fourth-worst in the NFL. Tony Pollard, pressed into a larger role, wore down as the season wore on.
Adding Robinson would provide an immediate boost in the backfield. The Texas star runs like Nick Chubb and brings value as a receiver (60 catches, 804 yards in three seasons). He’d be a luxury for a team with more pressing needs elsewhere, but there’s nothing Jones likes more than a luxury.
28
Cincinnati Bengals: S Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M
Team needs: OL, DB, DT, TE
Both Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates are pending free agents. Cincinnati feasibly has the cap space to lock them both down, but could opt to let one leave and find a lower-cost replacement through the draft.
Instead of adding pass rushing depth or a high profile tight end project, the Bengals get a projectable safety with massive potential. Johnson would be a proper Bell replacement; a route-clogging defensive back who can play near the line of scrimmage to mush runs or double back as a center fielder. His coverage remains a work in progress but he’s big (6-foot-3, 200 pounds), agile and has all the tools to ruin an NFL quarterback’s day.
29
Denver Broncos (via Miami Dolphins, via San Francisco 49ers): OT Anton Harrison, Oklahoma
Team needs: EDGE, OT, CB, LB
Russell Wilson was sacked a league- and career-high 55 times in 2022. That’s remarkable when you consider how bad his blocking was in stretches as a Seahawk. His declining mobility suggests beefed-up protection could be the only way to restore him to … well, maybe not greatness, but at least a passable impression of a starting quarterback.
Harrison’s lateral movement and power make him a mirror to edge rushers. He’s capable of moving linebackers backward at the point of contact or pushing them outside to run a harmless circle around his pocket. He’s big and mean and, while his run blocking isn’t quite at the level of his pass protection, exactly what the Broncos need.
30
Buffalo Bills: IOL John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota
Team needs: CB, IOL, S, LB
The Bills could use young safety help, but with Branch and Johnson off the board could instead look elsewhere. Enter Schmitz, a man capable of plugging multiple holes in the middle of a leaky offensive line. The Minnesota product has been credited with only two sacks allowed in three-plus seasons as a starter.
That’s great, but his true value is as a run-game wrecking ball, where he gets into the second level and crushes linebackers. He’s not uber athletic for a lineman, but he’s powerful and tough to move, which gives him flex-seal capabilities up front for Josh Allen.
31
Kansas City Chiefs: EDGE Nolan Smith, Georgia
Team needs: OL, CB, DT, LB, S
Smith missed the bulk of the 2022 season due to a torn pec, but he remains a high-upside pass rusher who was an integral cog in the Bulldogs’ soul-destroying defense. He’s a streaky player, but when he’s on he’s a tornado; just see the forced fumble/interception he had in under one minute of game time against Florida last season.
At 235 pounds he may need to add mass, but he’s a twitchy edge defender who brings value against the run and in coverage as well. He’s more than just a speed guy on the outside; he’s defensive ibuprofen, a cure-all that can handle a variety of different ailments AFC offenses might cause.
32
Philadelphia Eagles: DL Siaki Ika, Baylor
Team needs: EDGE, LB, RB, DL
Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave are each in their 30s and pending free agents. Drafting Jordan Davis last season was a boon for the middle of the Philly D-line. Bringing in the 350-pound Ika would be another.
Like Davis, he’s massive and capable of getting upfield in a hurry, shriking pockets from the inside-out. And as expected, he’s an absolute unit against the run — a boulder who occupies multiple blockers who’d play alongside a second boulder who occupies multiple blockers. Ika isn’t a monster athlete and won’t rack up counting stats from the interior of the line. But he’ll help everyone around him thrive and could be the key to unlocking Davis’s potential should Cox and Hargrave depart.
