Everybody enjoys a good NFL mock draft. The one problem? They’re predictable. The groupthink is inevitable because we’re all looking at the same players and the same teams with the same perceived roster weaknesses.
So in this mock, we’re anything but predictable. In fact, we’ve replaced order with chaos. Here, all 31 first-round picks have been traded, using only 2023 draft choices in return compensation.
Below, you’ll see the point values for each first-round pick in a highly regarded chart created by Hall of Fame coach Jimmy Johnson when he ran the Cowboys during their dynasty of the 1990s. In the trades, all point values are in parentheses, and the trades come close to equal in points.
Additionally, each trade has a reasoning behind it based on team need and the remaining board, which is explained after each trade-up. Enjoy the madness.
Actual 2023 NFL draft order and point values
1. Carolina Panthers (3,000)
2. Houston Texans (2,600)
3. Arizona Cardinals (2,200)
4. Indianapolis Colts (1,800)
5. Seattle Seahawks (1,700)
6. Detroit Lions (1,600)
7. Las Vegas Raiders (1,500)
8. Atlanta Falcons (1,400)
9. Chicago Bears (1,350)
10. Philadelphia Eagles (1,300)
11. Tennessee Titans (1,250)
12. Houston Texans (1,200)
13. New York Jets (1,150)
14. New England Patriots (1,100)
15. Green Bay Packers (1,050)
16. Washington Commanders (1,000)
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (950)
18. Detroit Lions (900)
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (875)
20. Seattle Seahawks (850)
21. Los Angeles Chargers (800)
22. Baltimore Ravens (780)
23. Minnesota Vikings (760)
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (740)
25. New York Giants (720)
26. Dallas Cowboys (700)
27. Buffalo Bills (680)
28. Cincinnati Bengals (660)
29. New Orleans Saints (640)
30. Philadelphia Eagles (620)
31. Kansas City Chiefs (600)
Marvin Gentry/USA TODAY Sports
1
Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, AlabamaNEW TRADE: Panthers trade No. 1 (3,000), No. 114 (66) and No. 145 (33) to Texans for No. 2 (2,600), No. 65 (265) and No. 73 (225)
In real life, the Panthers already traded up with the Bears for the top pick. If there are two players they feel comfortable with (probably both quarterbacks) they can move back, add a couple more early-round picks and still get a franchise player. For the Texans, giving up a pair of third-round picks while ensuring they land their top target in Young is good business. Additionally, to make the math work, the Texans are also receiving a pair of Day 3 choices in return. While C.J. Stroud is a top prospect, Young is more polished, highlighted by having won both the Heisman and the AP College Football Player of the Year in 2021.
2
Carolina Panthers: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio StateTRADE NOTED ABOVE: Texans trade No. 2 (2,600), No. 65 (265) and No. 73 (225) to Panthers for No. 1 (3,000), No. 114 (66) and No. 145 (33)
If the Panthers don’t value Young more than Stroud, this would be an easy decision. Carolina can pick up two third-round picks and still land the Ohio State product, who can pair with coach Frank Reich to be the power couple in Charlotte for years to come. Considering the offseason additions of running back Miles Sanders and receiver Adam Thielen, the Panthers would be an intriguing bet for the NFC South title.
3
Detroit Lions: Anthony Richardson, QB, FloridaNEW TRADE: Cardinals trade No. 3 (2,200) to Lions for No. 6 (1,600), No. 48 (420) and No. 81 (185)
The Lions are building a contender, but is Jared Goff the long-term answer? If not, the next question general manager Brad Holmes must ask is when Detroit will pick this high again. The Lions would still have additional first- and second-round choices even after this deal. And for Richardson, it would be an ideal landing spot, allowing him to sit behind Goff for a season while growing into the offense.
4
Las Vegas Raiders: Will Anderson Jr., edge, AlabamaNEW TRADE: Colts trade No. 4 (1,800) to Raiders for No. 7 (1,500), No. 70 (240) and No. 109 (76)
General manager Dave Ziegler signed quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to what amounts to a two-year deal. With Garoppolo, the Raiders must now focus on their defense. Currently, Las Vegas has Maxx Crosby and little else. Chandler Jones was a disappointment in 2022 and likely has one year left with the Raiders. Giving up third- and fourth-round picks to move up three spots for the draft’s best prospect, Anderson, would be worth the price.
5
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Carter, DT, GeorgiaNEW TRADE: Seahawks trade No. 5 (1,700) and No. 198 (10.6) to Eagles for No. 10 (1,300), No. 62 (284) and No. 94 (124)
Carter is a significant risk, but the defending NFC champs have the infrastructure to make the gamble. Furthermore, general manager Howie Roseman builds his roster along the lines. While making this move would leave Philadelphia with only its other first-round pick and nothing else until the sixth round, it’s the type of acquisition that could bolster the defensive front for the next decade.
6
Arizona Cardinals: Tyree Wilson, edge, Texas TechTRADE NOTED ABOVE: Lions trade No. 6 (1,600), No. 48 (420) and No. 81 (185) to Cardinals for No. 3 (2,200)
The Cardinals are in a full-scale rebuild. For first-year general manager Monti Ossenfort, he’d be picking up extra second- and third-round picks from Detroit with this deal and still landing a top-tier edge rusher in Wilson. The Texas Tech product might not be Anderson, but he projects as a Pro Bowl–level player who could make an immediate impact on a team in dire need of help across the roster.
7
Indianapolis Colts: Christian Gonzalez, CB, OregonTRADE NOTED ABOVE: Raiders trade No. 7 (1,500), No. 70 (240) and No. 109 (76) to Colts for No. 4 (1,800)
Much like the Cardinals, the Colts have serious holes across their roster. Here, general manager Chris Ballard would move down three spots after the best quarterbacks are off the board. He’d add second- and fourth-round picks from the Raiders—which could prove quite valuable—and still land the top corner in this draft with Gonzalez. For Ballard, it’s an easy call, even if would mean allowing Anderson to go elsewhere.
8
Chicago Bears: Peter Skoronski, OT, NorthwesternNEW TRADE: Falcons trade No. 8 (1,400) and No. 159 (26.6) to Bears for No. 9 (1,350), No. 133 (39.5) and No. 148 (31)
The Bears can move up one spot to make sure they land the most versatile offensive lineman in the draft. Skoronski can play any position on the front, with the potential to be a starting tackle for a decade. For Chicago, the cost is minimal, giving up a Day 3 pick and swapping another. After their initial projected trade to move back from No. 1, the Bears would be flush with draft picks, and using a bit of capital here is smart business.
9
Atlanta Falcons: Lukas Van Ness, edge, IowaTRADE NOTED ABOVE: Bears trade No. 9 (1,350), No. 133 (39.5) and No. 148 (31) to Falcons for No. 8 (1,400) and No. 159 (26.6)
Moving back only one spot would net the Falcons a fourth-round pick, and they’d also move up 11 spots in the fifth. Atlanta would still get a top edge rusher in Van Ness, who has an argument as the third-best in this crop behind Anderson and Wilson. Along with the signings of defensive tackle David Onyemata and end Calais Campbell, the Falcons would be adding significant talent up front.
10
Seattle Seahawks: Nolan Smith, edge, GeorgiaTRADE NOTED ABOVE: Eagles trade No. 10 (1,300), No. 62 (284) and No. 94 (124) to Seahawks for No. 5 (1,700) and No. 198 (10.6)
Passing on Georgia’s Carter would be tough, but adding a pair of Day 2 picks from the Eagles could help general manager John Schneider fill multiple needs throughout the draft. While a receiver would make sense here, with Tyler Lockett entering his age-31 season, the Seahawks can land an edge rusher in Smith to bolster the pass rush alongside Darrell Taylor, Dre’Mont Jones and Uchenna Nwosu.
11
Green Bay Packers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio StateNEW TRADE: Titans trade No. 11 (1,250) to Packers for No. 15 (1,050) and No. 78 (200)
If the Packers are moving on to Jordan Love, they need more weaponry for the first-year starter to have a chance. Snagging Smith-Njigba from the Buckeyes would be worth the cost of a third-round pick, giving Green Bay the best receiver in this class. Smith-Njigba would join Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs as the leading man of a talented trio of young wideouts at Lambeau next year.
12
New England Patriots: Darnell Wright, OT, TennesseeNEW TRADE: Texans trade No. 12 (1,200) to Patriots for No. 14 (1,100), No. 117 (60) and No. 135 (38.5)
The Patriots are moving on from 2018 first-round pick Isaiah Wynn, leaving a need on the left side of the offensive line. Although the offensive line might be the deepest group in this draft, Wright has vaulted up draft boards throughout the process. After missing on Wynn, the Patriots won’t want to wait around and hope. Wright projects as an immediate upgrade and with the cost only a pair of fourth-rounders, it would be an easy decision.
13
Washington Commanders: Will Levis, QB, KentuckyNEW TRADE: Jets trade No. 13 (1,150) to Commanders for No. 16 (1,000), No. 97 (112) and No. 150 (30.2)
Jordan Prather/USA Today network
This would be fun. The Jets, who at some point will have Aaron Rodgers—we think—can trade back three spots as the Commanders attempt to land their franchise quarterback once more. For expected new Washington owner Josh Harris, this would be a smart way to reenergize the fan base. Levis is raw but has a huge arm and the prototypical body type to succeed, specifically in colder weather.
14
Houston Texans: Jordan Addison, WR, USCTRADE NOTED ABOVE: Patriots trade No. 14 (1,100), No. 117 (60) and No. 135 (38.5) to Texans for No. 12 (1,200)
With a quarterback coming to Houston (in this case, Young at No. 1), the Texans have to find a top option on the outside. Here, general manager Nick Caserio makes a deal with his old team in New England to secure extra picks in the fourth round, while still getting a playmaker Addison. He is diminutive at 5'11" and 173 pounds, but his footwork is fantastic and he has above-average speed. He would make a fun running mate for a rookie quarterback.
15
Tennessee Titans: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio StateTRADE NOTED ABOVE: Packers trade No. 15 (1,050) and No. 78 (200) to Titans for No. 11 (1,250)
The Titans added the No. 78 pick by moving back four spots and can still take arguably the class’s best tackle in Johnson. Tennessee needs to rebuild its offensive line after releasing tackle Taylor Lewan, and Johnson would be a terrific replacement. Furthermore, if the offense is going to succeed in 2023, it’ll be on the legs of running back Derrick Henry. Give him some blocking.
16
New York Jets: Broderick Jones, OT, GeorgiaTRADE NOTED ABOVE: Commanders trade No. 16 (1,000), No. 97 (112) and No. 150 (30.2) to Jets for No. 13 (1,150)
The run on tackles continues. New York desperately needs to provide Rodgers with elite protection, and that’s not happening with the current starting tackles, Mekhi Becton and Max Mitchell. General manager Joe Douglas picks up third- and fifth-round picks in this swap with Washington, and still nabs Jones, who measures 6'5" and 311 pounds, from the national champs.
17
Jacksonville Jaguars: Devon Witherspoon, CB, IllinoisNEW TRADE: Steelers trade No. 17 (950) to Jaguars for No. 24 (740), No. 88 (150), No. 121 (52) and No. 185 (15.8)
Outside of Gonzalez, Witherspoon might be the best corner in what is a strong rookie crop. While relinquishing third-, fourth- and sixth-round choices is a steep price, the Jaguars need an elite cornerback to compete with the AFC’s big boys after missing on Shaquill Griffin in free agency two years ago. The Jaguars have designs on a deep playoff run this season, and it needs to start with shoring up the defense.
18
Seattle Seahawks: Cody Mauch, OG, North Dakota StateNEW TRADE: Lions trade No. 18 (900) to Seahawks for No. 20 (850) and No. 123 (49)
The Seahawks traded back earlier, but now they can move up two slots at the cost of a fourth-round pick to secure help at guard. With two second-year tackles in Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, Seattle continues the youth movement in front of quarterback Geno Smith with Mauch, a favorite of many evaluators as a late-first-round pick.
19
New York Giants: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn StateNEW TRADE: Buccaneers trade No. 19 (875) to Giants for No. 25 (720) and No. 89 (145)
Giving up a third-rounder to move up six spots? It’s worth it for the Giants, who have a significant need at corner. Adoree’ Jackson is the top cover option for defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, and taking Porter would help push him to a better fit on the depth chart. Furthermore, general manager Joe Schoen potentially has three expensive contracts looming in running back Saquon Barkley, defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and left tackle Andrew Thomas. Having a star corner on a rookie deal would be huge for the salary cap.
20
Detroit Lions: Dalton Kincaid, TE, UtahTRADE NOTED ABOVE: Seahawks trade No. 20 (850) and No. 123 (49) to Lions for No. 18 (900)
General manager Brad Holmes moved back two spots and added a fourth-round pick to his arsenal. He also managed to still land the best tight end in what is a loaded class, potentially starting a run on the position. After dealing away T.J. Hockenson at last season’s trade deadline, the Lions must find a replacement. Kincaid was terrific in the Pac-12 last year, and he’d be a perfect fit in Motown.
21
Cincinnati Bengals: Bijan Robinson, RB, TexasNEW TRADE: Chargers trade No. 21 (800) to Bengals for No. 28 (660) and No. 92 (132)
Robinson is an incredible talent and well worth giving up a third-round pick for if you’re a championship contender like the Bengals. While the Chargers could also use Robinson, considering Austin Ekeler’s trade request, Los Angeles needs ample draft picks with a looming cap crunch next offseason. As for Cincinnati, this is a dream scenario with Robinson falling. If he gets here, the Bengals will run to the podium.
22
Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre DameNEW TRADE: Ravens trade No. 22 (780) and No. 124 (48) to Cowboys for No. 26 (700) and No. 90 (140)
With Kinkaid off the board, the Cowboys won’t waste any more time in replacing Dalton Schultz. Dallas would have to give up a third-rounder but also would add a fourth-round choice, easing the price. Owner Jerry Jones will want to add more pieces around quarterback Dak Prescott, and Mayer would be a great fit alongside fellow tight end Jake Ferguson.
23
Kansas City Chiefs: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCUNEW TRADE: Vikings trade No. 23 (760) to Chiefs for No. 31 (600), No. 95 (120) and No. 134 (39)
Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports
The Chiefs desperately need a receiver, and Johnston is an ideal fit. With 10 picks available to him, general manager Brett Veach can send third- and fourth-rounders to Minnesota, moving up eight spots to land Johnston. At 6'3" and 208 pounds, the former Big 12 standout would give Patrick Mahomes a big, physical target to go with speedsters in Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Kansas City would also have another fourth-round pick despite the trade.
24
Pittsburgh Steelers: Deonte Banks, CB, MarylandTRADE NOTED ABOVE: Jaguars trade No. 24 (740), No. 88 (150), No. 121 (52) and No. 185 (15.8) to Steelers for No. 17 (950)
Pittsburgh would get a third-round choice and two Day 3 picks from the Jaguars for the 17th pick, and now they’re on the clock. The Steelers have a long-term need at corner after seeing Mike Hilton and Cam Sutton leave in free agency in recent years. Banks could be the solution, and he could learn over the next few years from the newly signed.
25
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Hendon Hooker, QB, TennesseeTRADE NOTED ABOVE: Giants trade No. 25 (720) and No. 89 (145) to Buccaneers for No. 19 (875)
After picking up an extra third-round pick from the Giants, general manager Jason Licht could take a huge swing on Hooker. He’s a 25-year-old coming off a torn ACL, so there’s real risk in this pick. However, if Hooker makes good on his incredible potential, this would be a home run at the most important position in the sport.
26
Baltimore Ravens: Jalin Hyatt, WR, TennesseeTRADE NOTED ABOVE: Cowboys trade No. 26 (700) and No. 90 (140) to Ravens for No. 22 (780) and No. 124 (48)
Even after signing Odell Beckham Jr., Baltimore still has a serious need at receiver. Beckham is under contract for only one season, and the rest of the depth chart is either unreliable or underwhelming. Taking Hyatt here would make sense. Although he struggled as a freshman and sophomore at Tennessee, he caught fire as a junior with 67 receptions for 1,267 yards and 15 touchdowns.
27
New Orleans Saints: Myles Murphy, edge, ClemsonNEW TRADE: Bills trade No. 27 (680) to Saints for No. 29 (640) and No. 146 (32)
Every year, some player whom most pundits feel should be a top-15 pick ends up falling. Murphy is the victim of circumstance in this mock, and the Saints benefit. New Orleans would give up a fifth-rounder but land an excellent replacement for the departed Marcus Davenport on what has been a completely revamped defensive line around stalwart Cam Jordan. Murphy was excellent at Clemson, totaling 18.5 sacks over three seasons.
28
Los Angeles Chargers: Brian Branch, S, AlabamaTRADE NOTED ABOVE: Bengals trade No. 28 (660) and No. 92 (132) to Chargers for No. 21 (800)
With the surprising retirement of safety Nasir Adderley, the Chargers need a quality replacement. After adding a third-round pick from the Bengals, general manager Tom Telesco sees a board flush with enticing receivers. However, with so many pass catchers likely going in the middle rounds, Branch is the pick here. He’s the best safety in this class, coming from a phenomenal program led by coach Nick Saban. Sliding in next to Derwin James is also an ideal situation.
29
Buffalo Bills: Calijah Kancey, DT, PittsburghTRADE NOTED ABOVE: Saints trade No. 29 (640) and No. 146 (32) to Bills for No. 27 (680)
The Bills have Ed Oliver on his rookie deal for one more season, and Kancey is the best interior pass rusher in this class, with many expecting him to go a bit earlier. If he falls, Buffalo can get one of the best values of Day 1 while stashing a fifth-round pick from New Orleans. Most importantly, Kancey would give the Bills another option against Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow, while Von Miller and Greg Rousseau work from the edge.
30
Pittsburgh Steelers: Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT, NorthwesternNEW TRADE: Eagles trade No. 30 (620) to Steelers for No. 32 (590) and No. 121 (52)
After stocking up on draft picks by trading back with Jacksonville, the Steelers can cash in some of their excess choices to get back into the first round. The motive? Getting another first-round player eligible for a fifth-year option, and this one would be Adebawore, who can provide another force up front alongside T.J. Watt and Cam Hayward.
31
Minnesota Vikings: Cam Smith, CB, South CarolinaTRADE NOTED ABOVE: Chiefs trade No. 31 (600), No. 95 (120) and No. 134 (39) to Vikings for No. 23 (760)
After moving back to secure additional third- and fourth-round picks, the Vikings polish off the first night of the draft by taking Smith. After watching the defense fail time and again last season, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah can load up on that side of the ball. Now armed with a hoard of selections, the Vikings can start with Smith, who would form a nice tandem with the newly signed Byron Murphy Jr. on Minnesota’s rebuilt defense.
So there you have it: 31 trades for 31 picks. When this mock draft began, four teams had two first-round picks (the Eagles, Lions, Seahawks and Texans) and five teams had none (the 49ers, Browns, Dolphins, Rams and Saints).
All told, we saw five quarterbacks go off the board across the first 25 picks, while four receivers and five corners, five edge rushers and five offensive linemen became first-round picks as well.
After I was done with my trade machine handiwork, the Steelers ended up making multiple picks, while the list of teams going without a Round 1 pick remained the same.
Ultimately, the biggest move up the draft board was made by the defending-champion Chiefs, vaulting eight spots for receiver Quentin Johnston. The Jaguars and Bengals also made big moves, rising seven slots for corner Devon Witherspoon and running back Bijan Robinson, respectively.
