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Riley Hamel

2023 BMW Championship odds, course history and picks to win

We’re down to 50.

The FedEx Cup Playoffs roll on this week at Olympia Fields outside of Chicago for the BMW Championship. While Patrick Cantlay is the BMW defending champion — he won at Wilmington Country Club — Jon Rahm is the last player to win this event at OFCC, defeating Dustin Johnson in a playoff in 2020.

After Lucas Glover’s win at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, he moves into the No. 4 spot in the points standings, only behind Rory McIlroy (No. 3), Scottie Scheffler (No. 2) and Rahm (No. 1).

Twenty players will be sent packing Sunday evening, with the top 30 advancing to next week’s Tour Championship at East Lake in Atlanta.

Golf course

Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course) | Par 70 | 7,366 yards

A general view of the sixth green as Rory McIlroy putts during the BMW Championship on the North Course at Olympia Fields Country Club on August 29, 2020, in Olympia Fields, Illinois. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

2020 BMW leaderboard

Position Player Score
1 Jon Rahm 4 under
2 Dustin Johnson 4 under
T-3 Joaquin Niemann 2 under
T-3 Hideki Matsuyama 2 under
5 Tony Finau 1 under
T-6 Jason Kokrak Even
T-6 Matt Fitzpatrick Even
T-8 Sebastian Munoz 1 over
T-8 Brendon Todd 1 over
T-19 Lanto Griffin 2 over
T-10 Mackenzie Hughes 2 over
T-12 Brian Harman 3 over
T-12 Rory McIlroy 3 over
T-12 Ben An 3 over
T-12 Patrick Cantlay 3 over

Betting preview

Odds

Player Odds Player Odds
Rory McIlroy (+650) Jordan Spieth (+2800)
Scottie Scheffler (+700) Rickie Fowler (+3000)
Jon Rahm (+900) Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)
Patrick Cantlay (+1000) Cameron Young (+3000)
Xander Schauffele (+1600) Wyndham Clark (+3500)
Viktor Hovland (+1600) Tony Finau (+3500)
Tommy Fleetwood (+2000) Russell Henley (+3500)
Tyrrell Hatton (+2200) Lucas Glover (+3500)
Max Homa (+2200) Tom Kim (+4000)
Collin Morikawa (+2500) Sungjae Im (+4000)

Hideki Matsuyama (30/1)

Hideki Matsuyama hits his tee shot on the ninth hole during the second round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship golf tournament. (Photo: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports)

Matsuyama needs a big week in Illinois.

He’s 47th in the points standings and needs to get inside the top 30 to get into the Tour Championship.

Matsuyama is coming off a solid week in Memphis where he tied for 16th. Three years ago at Olympia Fields, the eight-time Tour winner tied for third at the BMW, two shots out of the playoff.

Cameron Young (30/1)

Cameron Young tees off on the first hole during the second round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tenn., on Friday, August 11, 2023.

Olympia Fields is a major-championship-style golf course. Narrow fairways, thick rough and long. Like, really long. It’s a par-70 track that measures over 7,300 yards.

Enter, Cam Young.

Data Golf has him as the No. 3 course fit — McIlroy is No. 1 — and he has played well on similar setups.

Southern Hills is a close course comparison, according to Data Golf, and Young finished T-3 at the 2022 PGA Championship.

Yes, Young hasn’t played here before. But his game perfectly fits this style of golf.

Viktor Hovland (16/1)

Viktor Hovland watches his tee shot on the seventh hole during the final round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship golf tournament. (Photo: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports)

I had Hovland on the card last week and I’m going right back to him.

He’s tied for 13th in his last two starts, the Open and the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Data Golf lists Winged Foot as the closest course comparison for Olympia Fields, and the Norwegian tied for 13th at the 2020 U.S. Open.

Rory McIlroy (13/2)

Rory McIlroy hits his tee shot on the seventh hole during the third round of the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship TPC Southwind. (Photo: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports)

I usually hate betting on the favorite, but everything seems to be falling into place for McIlroy this week.

He’s Data Golf’s No. 1 course fit, has eight top-10 finishes in a row and he’s returning to a course where he’s played well at in the past (he tied for 12th at the BMW in 2020).

A win outside of Chicago would put him in the No. 1 spot in the points standings and in the driver’s seat to make a run at back-to-back FedEx Cup titles and fourth overall.

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