As always, making predictions—especially about the future—is a proceed-at-your-own-risk endeavor. But survey the 2023 Australian Open and it’s hard not to pick Novak Djokovic against said field. After last year’s debacle, the nine-time champ returns. He hasn’t lost a match in Melbourne since 2018 (trivia: Hyeon Chung) and looked in peaked form last week in Adelaide. A peak-Nadal-at-the-French-Open-level favorite, it would be an Antipodean upset for Djokovic not to leave with the men’s trophy. But there are 127 matches to be played, so here goes:
1. Rafael Nadal: The star of the 2022 event will seek a 23rd major, and third title Down Under. But he’s 36, a new father, and, most concerningly, is sub-.500 since Wimbledon, and starts with a brutal draw (young fellow lefty Jack Draper). The fastest way to go broke in tennis: betting against the legends (especially in best-of-five formats). But hard to shake the sense that this is Nadal’s final trip to Melbourne.
2. Casper Ruud: Quick: name the only ATP player other than Nadal to reach two major finals in 2022. A fine campaign for a weakness-free player— “a solid countertop,” as they say—with a poised disposition. Career record in Australia, though? 4-3. The surface doesn’t play to his strengths. And, man, has he played a lot of tennis lately, choosing the novel approach of barnstorming in December and taking a rest in February. Still, a likely Week Two player.
