It’s been an unusual offseason, highlighted by four teams trading away first-round picks last month that resulted in new homes for Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill.
All of that trade activity means only 16 teams have exactly one first-round pick. The other half of the league enters the draft with either two first-rounders or none. (And there are still a few hours for a Deebo Samuel trade to alter those numbers!)
All of the offseason chaos leads us into a draft that has shaped up to be one of the more unpredictable in recent memory. Most drafts—18 of the past 25—have started with a quarterback, and there’s a reasonable chance that a quarterback won’t crack this year’s top 10.
Over the past quarter century, the draft has started with a defensive player only four times, and only the 2000 draft began with back-to-back defensive players. That is the reality I have below, for the first time since Courtney Brown and LaVarr Arrington were the first two players off the board.
With all that in mind, here is my final projection of the first round. Then, after the first 32 picks are made, I will post a Day 2 (Rounds 2 and 3) mock draft. You can also look at my final big board, where I ranked my top 262 prospects.
Jim Dedmon/USA TODAY Sports (Pickett); Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images (Walker); Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images (Neal); Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images (Hutchinson); Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch/USA Today Network (Wilson); Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images (Thibodeaux)
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Travon Walker, edge, Georgia
It’s certainly possible that Trent Baalke will go with Aidan Hutchinson, a safer selection and the top-ranked prospect on my big board. Or maybe the pick will be Ikem Ekwonu, despite offseason moves already made to bolster the offensive line, including tagging Cam Robinson. But growing sentiment is that Walker is the most likely choice, as “Baalke sees a lot of Aldon Smith in Walker.” Already an outstanding run defender, Walker’s elite combination of strength, length (35½" arms) and athleticism (4.51 40-yard dash at 272 pounds) should allow him to develop into a more productive pass rusher at the next level than he was asked to be on Georgia’s star-studded defense.
2. Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, edge, Michigan
No pick would make more sense than this if Hutchinson isn’t headed to Duval County. Hutchinson would stay local, and he fits what the coaching staff seeks in its players while simultaneously addressing one of the team’s biggest needs. The Lions ranked 30th in the NFL in sacks last season (30), and the former Wolverine set Michigan’s single-season sack record in 2021, with 14. He’s as safe as it gets due to his combination of leadership, athleticism, nonstop motor, polish and production.
3. Houston Texans: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Earlier offseason speculation suggested that Laremy Tunsil and the Texans could part ways, but the two sides agreed to a restructured contract, although there is a potential out after this season. Ekwonu is a mauler in the run game, but he has the nimble feet and traits for his ability as a pass protector to eventually catch up to his dominance as a run blocker. Ekwonu has the versatility to play right tackle or guard in 2022 with the long-term upside to take over at left tackle if the team parts with Tunsil in ’23.
4. New York Jets: Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, Oregon
I’m sticking with Thibodeaux here from my most recent mock, but there is some buzz that this could be Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson II (instead of Thibodeaux, if they go edge) and I’ve mocked Johnson to the Jets (albeit at 10th) much earlier in the process. That said, the former Duck has an impressive combination of speed (4.58 40-yard dash at the combine) and strength (position-high 27 bench press reps). Given his explosive first step and closing burst, Thibodeaux has the upside to develop into a double-digit sack producer early in his NFL career.
5. New York Giants: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
Left tackle Andrew Thomas played better last year than he did as a rookie, but the Giants still had one of the league’s worst offensive lines last season. In other words, there’s a good chance the Giants will use one of their two first-rounders on an offensive tackle. Conventional wisdom might suggest that the Giants would prefer Evan Neal over Cross, who has played exclusively on the left side in college. Perhaps Big Blue won’t move Thomas to the right side, however, as reports suggest the Giants love Cross at right tackle. Cross had 1,293 pass-blocking snaps over the past two seasons, per PFF, and the former five-star recruit uses his length (34½" arms), light feet, balance and hand placement to excel in pass protection.
6. Carolina Panthers: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
It’s clear that the Panthers want to upgrade their quarterback room, but the team doesn’t pick again until late in the fourth round (137th overall). Unless owner David Tepper forces the issue, addressing their offensive tackle need makes more sense. Neal started at a different position—left guard and both tackle spots—in each of his three seasons at Alabama. The former five-star recruit has size and tremendous power, but also the movement skills of a much lighter player. As SI’s Albert Breer recently noted, however, a “good number of clubs” consider Neal “a notable medical risk,” and that could lead to Neal being selected third among the consensus top three tackles in the draft.
7. New York Giants (via Bears): Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Cornerback James Bradberry remains on the Giants’ roster as of this writing, but many expect the talented corner to be moved before the weekend’s over. Fortunately for the Giants, they get their choice of a potential replacement in this scenario. Gardner is a lanky corner with elite length (33½" arms), toughness and confidence. He not only checked the box with a 4.41 40-yard dash, but his change of direction and agility are good for a corner with his height. “Sauce” has ended each of his three seasons in Cincinnati with three interceptions.
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY Network
8. Atlanta Falcons: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
With a number of needs, the Falcons could go in many different directions here. Calvin Ridley is suspended for the 2022 season, and Russell Gage (66/770/4) is now in Tampa Bay. Wilson is my top-ranked wide receiver prospect, has outstanding body control and is dynamic after the catch. The former Buckeye ran a (slightly) faster-than-expected 40-yard dash (4.38) in Indianapolis and posted a 70/1,058/12 line in 2021.
9. Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos): Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
Stingley has had the best individual season (2019) among draft-eligible cornerbacks, and it’s even more impressive given that he did that as an 18-year-old true freshman during LSU’s title run. The past couple of seasons have been marred by injury and/or play below his ’19 level, but he has an elite combination of speed, athleticism and fluidity, and outstanding ball skills (six INTs in ’19). He’s one of the youngest players in the draft and won’t turn 21 until June.
10. New York Jets (via Seahawks): Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
A trade for Tyreek Hill was “almost a done deal,” but Williams can provide a similar element for the Jets’ offense as he put tremendous stress on opposing defenses with his game-breaking speed, when healthy. While he tore his ACL in January, he’s “ahead of schedule” with rehab. Even though he may miss time early in the season, he has a chance to emerge as the best receiver in this draft class. The speedy wideout is coming off of a breakout season (79/1,572/15) in 2021 after transferring from Ohio State to Alabama.
11. Washington Commanders: Drake London, WR, USC
While the team’s other top pass catchers battled injuries, Terry McLaurin (1,053 yards) was the only Commander to exceed 400 receiving yards last season. London uses his 6'5" frame and large catch radius to turn contested catches into his advantage. The former basketball player had 88 catches for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns in only eight games before his season was cut short by an ankle injury.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Jermaine Johnson II, edge, Florida State
I’ve strongly considered Johnson at multiple spots in the top 10, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s not available here. After leading the ACC in both TFLs (17.5) and sacks (11.5) in 2021, Johnson has continued to raise his stock throughout the predraft process. He grew up outside Minneapolis, and Johnson’s athleticism, length and motor allow him to make an impact as a pass rusher and against the run.
13. Houston Texans (via Browns): Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
If the draft plays out this way, I’d grade this pick an A-plus. In my previous mock that projected trades, I had the Texans trading up to ninth for Hamilton. Although he may not fall this far, I think this is his absolute floor. Hamilton’s not only the best player available, by far, but the Texans get a blue-chip prospect at a position of need. Despite disappointing times at the combine and Notre Dame’s pro day, Hamilton isn’t slow as his outstanding range shows. Hamilton would give Lovie Smith a true difference maker on the back end with his unique blend of height, length, athleticism and ball production (eight career interceptions).
14. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Davis, IDL, Georgia
There are freak athletes, then there is Jordan Davis. Men his size (341 pounds) shouldn’t be able to move the way he can (4.78 40-yard dash). Georgia has had a loaded defense, but Davis was a big reason why the Bulldogs have ranked top-three nationally in run defense in each of the past three seasons. There were four 1,200-yard rushers in 2021—three of them (Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon and Najee Harris) play for Baltimore’s AFC North rivals.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (via Dolphins): Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
McDuffie has just average size and lacks length (sub-30" arms), but he’s aggressive and physical in run support and limits yards after the catch. He has outstanding short-area quickness and fluid hips, and is rarely out of position. McDuffie is at his best in zone coverage, but he’s scheme-diverse and has the versatility to play outside, in the slot and even some safety.
16. New Orleans Saints (via Eagles, via Colts): Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Since leading the NFL in receiving in 2019, Michael Thomas has played only seven games (and none last year). With his ability to separate as one of the most polished route runners in this year’s draft class and as a weapon in the vertical passing game, Olave would complement Thomas well. He finished his Ohio State career with a school record for receiving touchdowns (35) and averaged 15.4 yards per catch.
17. Los Angeles Chargers: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
The Chargers may have to move up to get in front of the Saints, but Penning would fit one of their biggest needs to bookend last year’s first-rounder, Rashawn Slater. Penning has ideal length (34¼" arms), size, strength, toughness and a temperament his coaches will appreciate.
18. Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints): George Karlaftis, edge, Purdue
Karlaftis lacks ideal length and bend at the top of his rush, but he wins with power. He has a quick first step, violent and active hands, and a nonstop motor with the versatility to line up inside or outside.
19. New Orleans Saints (via Eagles): Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
Re-signing Jameis Winston to a two-year deal and bringing in Andy Dalton to back him up doesn’t rule out a quarterback here. With good (not great) arm strength and mobility, Pickett moves quickly through his progressions and throws well on the move. Pickett broke Deshaun Watson’s ACC record with 42 touchdowns in 2021 while also cutting down his interceptions (seven) last season.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Even though the Steelers have signed Mitchell Trubisky, it’s unlikely that they would pass on Willis if he were available here. Willis is a dual-threat talent who generates plenty of zip on his throws and is a dynamic runner. Not only did he impress during on-field drills at the combine and his pro day, but this viral video captures the strength of Willis’s character and why it’s easy to root for him.
21. New England Patriots: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
Lloyd can impact the game in a variety of ways with his ability to cover tight ends, get to the quarterback as a blitzer and defend the run. The Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year stuffed the stat sheet with 110 tackles, 22 TFLs, eight sacks and four interceptions in 2021. No coach would appreciate Lloyd’s versatility more than Bill Belichick.
22. Green Bay Packers (via Raiders): Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
The last time Green Bay drafted a first-round wide receiver (Javon Walker, 2002), Aaron Rodgers was getting ready for his freshman year at Butte Community College. To be fair, the Packers have had tremendous success finding talented second-round receivers—Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Greg Jennings, etc.
Burks plays faster than his timed speed with the acceleration to run away from defenders. Due to his physicality, run-after-catch prowess and how the Razorbacks varied his alignments, it’s easy to see how his new team could use Burks similarly to how the 49ers have used Deebo Samuel. Burks finished 2021 with 66 receptions for 1,104 yards, 14 carries for 112 yards and a total of 12 touchdowns.
23. Arizona Cardinals: Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Dotson creates separation with his nuanced route running and quickness, has outstanding hands and is elusive in the open field even though he won’t break a lot of tackles. He adds value as a punt returner and finished his final season at Penn State with 91 catches for 1,182 yards and 12 touchdowns.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Zion Johnson, IOL, Boston College
With Connor Williams exiting in free agency, the Cowboys would get an instant upgrade at left guard with Johnson. He has made double-digit starts at three different positions—left guard, right tackle and left tackle—and took some reps at center during Senior Bowl week. The versatile lineman is smart and polished, and plays under control with good balance.
25. Buffalo Bills: Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State
If I were picking for the Bills, this selection would be a cornerback, but I’m not sure that’s what Brandon Beane will do here. Since he took over for Doug Whaley, who selected Tre’Davious White in the first round in 2017, the Bills have not taken a cornerback on the first or second day in any of Beane’s four drafts. Hall is a complete back who will take some pressure off of Josh Allen. The former Cyclone is a patient runner with outstanding vision and contact balance, and he’s a reliable receiver out of the backfield.
26. Tennessee Titans: Kenyon Green, IOL, Texas A&M
With Rodger Saffold and David Quessenberry no longer on the roster, the Titans have needs on the offensive line at left guard and right tackle. Green started at right guard in 2019, left guard in ’20 and then made starts at all offensive line positions except center in ’21. While his added versatility is a plus, Green is ideally suited to play guard. Improved hand usage will help cut down on holding penalties, but the former five-star recruit has a powerful lower half, outstanding length and is at his best in the run game.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
Cine ran a 4.37 40-yard dash at the combine and led all safeties in the broad jump (11'1"). He sees the game well and “multiple teams” told the Senior Bowl’s Jim Nagy that Cine “blew them away in interviews.” Cine delivers some big hits in run support and is a reliable tackler in space with sideline-to-sideline range.
28. Green Bay Packers: Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa
Smith is a young prospect—he turned 21 earlier this month—and started the past two-plus seasons at left tackle for Tulsa. While he has the athleticism and length (34" arms) to stick outside, a move inside until he cleans up some technical issues is possible. Smith has tremendous power and the bully mentality to be a dominant run blocker, offers plenty of upside and could sneak into the back end of Round 1.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (via 49ers, via Dolphins): Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
With the versatility the Chiefs should covet, Hill can play deep safety, nickel or potentially outside cornerback and has tremendous athleticism and range. Not only did Hill run a 4.38 40-yard dash, but his performance in agility drills—three-cone (6.57) and 20-yard shuttle (4.06)—both finished second at the combine behind only Zyon McCollum.
30. Kansas City Chiefs: David Ojabo, edge, Michigan
Ojabo is relatively new to football, but he finished last season with 11 sacks—second in the Big Ten behind Hutchinson—and his pass-rush moves are more developed than one would expect given his limited experience. A torn Achilles will delay his NFL debut, but the explosive and bendy edge rusher would offer the Chiefs plenty of upside as a reward for their patience with his recovery and development.
31. Cincinnati Bengals: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
Offensive line upgrades this offseason should improve the team’s protection for Joe Burrow, who was sacked a total of 70 times in 2021 between the regular season and playoffs. Despite their free-agent additions, I still considered Tyler Linderbaum here, but you could argue cornerback is as big of a need as offensive line. Elam has an NFL pedigree as both his father (Abe) and uncle (Matt) played safety in the league. Ideally suited to play press where he can use his size, strength and physicality at the line of scrimmage, Elam has outstanding straight-line speed (4.39 40-yard dash).
32. Detroit Lions (via Rams): George Pickens, WR, Georgia
Pickens’s best season came as a highly-touted true freshman, when he hauled in 49 receptions for 727 yards and eight touchdowns in 2019. While he missed most of the past season with a torn ACL, the lanky receiver has natural hands and excellent body control. The Lions signed D.J. Chark to a one-year deal, but Pickens would be an ideal long-term complement to Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Kevin Hanson is contributing mock drafts and position rankings to The MMQB during the 2022 NFL draft season. His mock drafts have been graded as the seventh-most accurate (tied) over the past five years, per The Huddle Report. His ’15 NFL mock draft was graded as the most accurate.
