The difference between winning and losing in fantasy sports is knowing when to fade players coming off career seasons while also reading between the lines on injured players. Here’s my list of bust players and my fade list:
Quarterback
Tom Brady, Buccaneers
At age 43, Brady had the best opportunity (719 attempts) of his career passing the ball. His play has been exceptional in Tampa, but he lost his good friend Rob Gronkowski, and Chris Godwin is coming off a significant injury. As a result, his potential downturn in production is priced into his ranking (12th) at quarterback in the NFFC. I’m sure Brady will find a way to pass for over 4,000 yards with 30 scores, but he won’t finish as an edge at his position. At some point, the wheels will come off his excellent NFL resume.
Running Backs
Cam Akers, Rams
After flashing in his rookie season over his final six games (708 combined yards with three touchdowns and 11 catches), Akers has been overpriced in drafts. In 2021, he suffered an Achilles injury before the start of the year, making him a fantasy bust. Even with a short resume in the NFL, some fantasy drafters will fight for him in drafts. The Rams will rotate in another back, so Akers doesn’t have an impact ceiling. However, he plays in an exciting offense, boosting his fantasy excitement. I need to see him shine before drafting Akers over some other mid-tier running backs.
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Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys
Deal or no deal will be the question fantasy drafters need to answer when on the clock on the three/four turn in 12-team leagues. Unfortunately for Elliott, his game looks to be on the decline, especially as a receiver. His pass protection skills help his chances, but the Cowboys have an exciting backup runner who will eat away at Elliott’s chances over the long haul of the season.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown, Eagles
In the early draft season in the high-stakes market, Brown ranks 10th at wide receiver after his trade to the Eagles. He brings an exciting combination of scoring and big-play ability, but Philadelphia is a run-first team. I expect him to have multiple productive games while also coming up empty at times when the Eagles play for the lead and control the clock with their run game. I expect him to finish closer to a backend WR2 than an impact player. On my first run of the projections, Brown is on a path to catch 69 passes for 988 yards and eight touchdowns, or 217.46 fantasy points in PPR formats.
Diontae Johnson, Steelers
The Steelers looked for Johnson 169 times last season, leading to career-highs in catches (107), receiving yards (1,161) and touchdowns (8). His stock appears to be on the rise, but a change at quarterback in Pittsburgh invites fewer pass attempts. As a result, I expect his targets to fall by about 15%, leading to Johnson underperforming his price point. His floor will be competitive, but multiple receivers will beat his output in a similar area of drafts.
Allen Lazard, Packers
Despite being a WR4 in PPR formats in mid-July, Lazard is still a fade for me in drafts. He’s been with the Packers for four seasons, but Green Bay failed to give him over 60 targets in any year. His bump in touchdowns (8) in 2021 invites more chance this year. Unfortunately for Lazard, he will receive more attention from defenses while needing to prove he can beat top cornerbacks. I expect another receiver on the Packers to emerge as their top wideout.
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Tight End
Dawson Knox, Bills
After a career year (49/587/9), Knox is now considered a top 12 tight end. However, his success and ranking were driven by scoring, something he didn’t do over his first 45 games between college and the Bills (five touchdowns). In addition, Knox only averaged only 4.2 targets per game last season. At best, he is the fifth option in the Bills’ passing game behind Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Jamison Crowder and the running back position. I liked his growth last year, but all parts of his equation don’t look repeatable without more targets.
