Designating who was successful immediately after a draft’s conclusion can be a foolhardy proposition. In many cases, we won’t know who “won” or “lost” until years after the fact, when many late bloomers finally start to pan out, project players either sink or swim, and underrated prospects make a name for themselves.
But these kinds of exercises aren’t entirely fruitless. We assign pole positions to some franchises because some draft outcomes are apparent.
When the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions reach on running backs, despite already having steady starters, their respective decisions deserve a furl of an eyebrow. When the Indianapolis Colts finally take a needed swing at a quarterback with so much potential, they deserve a round of applause. When a familiar cutoff hoodie-wearing face stays true to himself — we know he probably nailed the draft. His past precedent of excellence suggests as much.
I readily admit that some of my assessments here will likely turn out to be wrong. I’m OK with that because that’s not the point of these labels. I’m fine with being wrong. Doing this is my way of getting an understanding of where the NFL landscape now stands and seeing where some league trends are potentially heading. Plain and simple.
Achieving that goal should be the standard.
Here are For The Win’s winners and losers at the conclusion of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Also check out:
- Our way-too-early 2024 mock draft, featuring USC’s Caleb Williams
- 10 top prospects to keep an eye on in the 2024 draft, like Marvin Harrison Jr.
- 11 unsigned veteran NFL free agents who can still help a team
Winners
Bill Belichick stays true to himself
After almost a quarter-century at the helm of the New England Patriots, Bill Belichick knows what works for his team. He won’t change who he is as a coach, and he won’t change the Patriots’ identity, either.
So, of course, Belichick drafted a centerpiece ballhawk in Christian Gonzalez.
Of course Belichick brought in a versatile and big defensive lineman in Keion White.
Of course he would take the smart utility safety in Marte Mapu.
And, of course, he’d ensure he addressed special teams with a punter.
The Patriots are going to be strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball, they’re going to force turnovers, and they won’t waste any plays in the third phase. This is how Belichick squads win games. This is why he has a reputation as the arguably greatest coach of all time: He has a plan and he sticks to it.
Chris Ballard finally takes a swing on a QB
Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard knew he could no longer wait to address the most important position. Because he had centered on quarterback band-aids for the last half-decade, Ballard wasted a formerly talented Colts nucleus.
With the bumbling Colts sitting in a prime position to start over, Ballard took no chances: He brought in the athletically gifted Anthony Richardson and gave him a promising base to stand on. Richardson will start his NFL career with an offensive supporting cast of weapons that features Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Jelani Woods, and Josh Downs. His offensive line will have four starters previously drafted on Day 2 or earlier and could be a wall if the all-worldly Quenton Nelson can stay healthy.
If Richardson is comfortable, the Colts will likely be able to compete quickly. And it’s all because Ballard finally stopped messing around and found himself someone to build around under center.
Howie Roseman fixates on the Georgia Bulldogs for all the right reasons
When it comes to the NFL Draft, bet on organizations. Bet on executives who have been there, done that, and have shown they have a quality decision-making process. Bet on executives who just lean on common sense when all is said and done.
There is no one in pro football — no one — who checks off these boxes better than Philadelphia Eagles general manager Howie Roseman. He showed why again this weekend.
After free agency gutted Philadelphia’s NFC-title-winning roster, Roseman went out and plucked several plus-contributors from Georgia’s most recent national championship team. Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith will slot into a monstrous front seven already featuring former Fletcher Cox, Haason Reddick, and former Bulldog teammate Jordan Davis. They’ll be backed up by Kelee Ringo. Oh, and Sydney Brown, in a nod to Philadelphia, might be the second coming of Brian Dawkins.
With Jalen Hurts, the Eagles were never in serious danger of dropping out of contention after March. After this masterclass draft, the defending NFC champs are somehow even more firmly entrenched as a team to beat.
And they did it because Roseman basically said: “Why don’t we just draft players from college football’s top team?” It’s so obvious!
The New York Giants continue to follow the Buffalo Bills' successful model
To start the 2020s, the Buffalo Bills have set one of the better examples for roster construction. They’re an AFC powerhouse, and they’re not going anywhere anytime soon. Joe Schoen, an alumnus of the Buffalo organization who now steers the ship for the Giants, clearly takes cues from his days in the western part of The Empire State.
Months after coaching wizard Brian Daboll took the Giants on a surprising run to the Divisional Round, Schoen turned this draft into a decisive haymaker. Even just within their first three picks, Schoen’s Giants added three Day 1 starters at significant positions of need (CB Deonte Banks, C John Michael Schmitz, and big-play WR Jalin Hyatt).
Now, after Daboll has started to unlock the promising potential of late-bloomer Daniel Jones, the duo is in a great place. On paper, their roster resembles more of a contender than a dark horse. The Giants won’t catch anyone off guard in 2023. They won’t have to because the talent finally matches the surprise factor.
It’s all thanks to Schoen taking his Bills lessons and applying them proactively.
The Cincinnati Bengals maintain their status as the No. 1 contender for the Kansas City Chiefs' belt
After making two consecutive runs to the AFC title game — even knocking Patrick Mahomes off his mantel once — the Bengals could’ve rested on their laurels. They could’ve said Joe Burrow had enough to compete for Super Bowls and asked him to run it back with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Cincinnati’s latest draft is proof that’s not how this premier organization operates (that’s so weird to write about the Bengals).
A formidable pass rusher in Myles Murphy, two secondary starters in D.J. Turner and Jordan Battle, and a multifaceted back in Chase Brown all joining this AFC contender? Absurd. Scary. Eye-opening. Any superlative you can think of probably applies. Open that dictionary.
The Bengals are red-hot on the Chiefs’ tail.
They won’t stop until they catch them again, and until they win Cincinnati’s first-ever Super Bowl. This draft class will play a massive role in that lofty ambition.
The Chicago Bears execute their "tanking" plan to perfection
No, the Bears didn’t try to tank en route to their 3-14 campaign last year.
I mean, it’s not as if the NFL’s worst team didn’t make any changes to its coaching staff after such an inexcusable and “unplanned” failure. Or that Chicago, after gutting its front seven and ignoring receiver for over a year, went out and threw so much draft and free-agent capital at both gaps right away.
Wait, that’s precisely what happened!
While we’ll never be able to confirm the Bears lost games on purpose in 2022, everything about their approach this offseason seemed to affirm some folks’ suspicions. They still didn’t want to win because it wasn’t in their best long-term interests. Losing netting the Bears the No. 1 overall pick that they then turned into D.J. Moore, their first top-10 offensive tackle drafted in four decades (Darnell Wright), and a treasure chest of draft picks.
Losing in the past put the Bears in a position where they revamped their offensive and defensive lines at the first opportunity. Losing helped them give Justin Fields one of the NFL’s more underrated wide-receiving corps on paper.
Sure, the Bears didn’t tank (wink, wink). But whatever their plans actually were, they used this draft to turn themselves into a legitimate NFC playoff contender. Contrary to everything we’ve ever been taught in our lives, losing now to win later does pay off, folks.
Lamar Jackson is ready to reclaim his MVP crown
This draft weekend asserted that the Ravens are no longer willing to mess around with Lamar Jackson. They had the best quarterback who’s ever worn their uniform. So, they made a wholesale commitment to him. Financially and on the field.
Good for them. Better late than never.
Not only did Baltimore make Jackson one of the richest players in football history, they brought him a new best friend in Zay Flowers. Heck, they even filled out a complementary defense with Trenton Simpson. A defense that can and will get Jackson the ball back a bunch.
It’s been years since we saw Jackson scorch the league and leave everyone desperately grasping at straws. Don’t be surprised if this superstar returns to a consistent level of play that takes the Ravens back to the stratosphere. Don’t be surprised if Jackson sits back on the quarterback throne.
Long may this Raven reign.
Losers
The Detroit Lions' hubris
As the architect of the rising Lions, I thought general manager Brad Holmes came from the football school of thought where you never reach. I thought he was an executive who would stick to his guns and use what power he had to keep the Lions on the ascent.
Detroit may still be an NFC power and team to watch in 2023. There’s too much talent wearing Honolulu Blue right now. But I think there’s little doubt that Holmes and his staff flubbed their latest draft. It might be a setback that even puts the Lions back on the eventual downslope.
I like Jahmyr Gibbs, the running back. I like Jack Campbell, the linebacker. But both probably could’ve been had in the second round. I like Sam LaPorta, the tight end. He probably could’ve been had in the third or even fourth round. Selections like Brian Branch might be future Pro Bowlers (at least by my estimation), but they don’t redeem Holmes’ Lions’ early puzzling approach to this draft. If anything, they make me wonder what happened and what made the Lions eventually correct course.
Detroit had an opportunity to sand over major flaws and cement itself as an NFC heavyweight. Instead, members of this organization drafted like they’ve been reading their own offseason hype.
The Jacksonville Jaguars put Trevor Lawrence's rise in neutral
The Jaguars are the overwhelming favorites to win the AFC South. In an AFC loaded with superstar quarterbacks, the bright Trevor Lawrence will make them a popular dark horse pick to unseat the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills by September.
And they flat-out wasted their last best opportunity to improve before a big Year 3 for their talisman.
Anton Harrison is a good player, maybe even a plus starter the moment he hits training camp. But he’s probably never drafted by Jacksonville if Cam Robinson isn’t serving a suspension for violating the performance-enhancing drug policy. Talk about drafting for need out of panic.
Brenton Strange will be a serviceable H-back, but I have a hard time believing he was worth a second-round pick. I also understand that Travis Etienne Jr. probably isn’t a workhorse back but I can’t vibe with the logic of taking Tank Bigsby over an interior offensive lineman. That area of the Jaguars’ roster remains a sieve endangering the ultimate potential of Lawrence. Somehow it went unaddressed with these sorts of selections.
Trent Baalke rebuilt Jacksonville’s goodwill by hiring Doug Pederson to clean up Urban Meyer’s mess. If the Jaguars fall short of high expectations with Lawrence in 2023, I think this middling draft will be a part of those shortcomings. Baalke will only have himself to blame again.
Skeptics that Caleb Williams won't spend his professional future in Southern California (or Arizona)
I know the term is thrown around entirely too much, but Caleb Williams is a “generational” quarterback prospect. By the fall, he will be as coveted by terrible NFL teams like Trevor Lawrence, Andrew Luck, and Peyton Manning before him. And in case there was any doubt: I’m fairly confident the Los Angeles Rams’ Sean McVay will be getting his hands on Williams next April. (Don’t discount the Arizona Cardinals’ Jonathan Gannon.)
Bless McVay’s heart, the Rams genuinely might be the worst team in football. Little of their 2023 draft class will do anything to change that notion. Meanwhile, the Cardinals still have Kyler Murray, sure, but he’s recovering from an ACL tear and wasn’t drafted by Arizona’s new regime. Plus, the tackle they took to protect Murray (or whoever), Paris Johnson Jr., has 15 collegiate starts to his name. There isn’t a lot to work with in the Phoenix desert.
Both the Rams and Cardinals have arduous paths back to relevance. It’s really early, but I can easily one of them getting a life vest in the form of Williams next spring.
Most any quarterback in the AFC not named "Mahomes"
I’ve discussed the issues of Lawrence’s Jaguars at length. I mentioned that Burrow’s Bengals will still be a threat and that Jackson’s Ravens should be back on the rise. I even complimented the Colts for investing in Richardson.
About that last part.
Richardson (in Indianapolis) and C.J. Stroud (to the Houston Texans) potentially create an underlying “problem” in the AFC: there are too many good quarterbacks. Mind you, this isn’t a problem for us, per se. If the bar for quarterback play is rising on one side of the NFL, that means more entertaining and thrilling football to watch. Woo!
It is, however, bad news for anyone trying to win the AFC and actually make it to the Super Bowl against the waiting NFC champion. Well, unless you’re Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. It doesn’t really matter who stands in their way.
Let me put it like this.
If Stroud and Richardson pan out, the AFC (excluding the all-timer Mahomes) now features Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, and the two rookies. Including Mahomes (who, again, should be concerned about none of this): that is over half the conference with a potential field-tilting starter at quarterback.
I’m struggling to remember a potentially more challenging time to stay afloat in a conference than the current state of the AFC. And it’s because of this loaded gauntlet of quarterbacks.
A comeback for running backs
Let’s table the curious thought process of any team that made investments in running backs. Based on this draft, it looks like organizations are starting to value the position again. For some reason. (I’m sorry, I couldn’t resist).
Between Bijan Robinson and Gibbs, this draft was the first time two tailbacks had been selected in the top 12 since 2017. Eventually, seven runners were drafted on the first two days of the draft — the sweet spot of premium picks for most classes.
Not everyone drafted was a workhorse, either. Some of these guys will form committees on already efficient offenses (like Zach Charbonnet in Seattle, for example). Some are utility players best served by specific packages around their skill sets (like Devon Achane in Miami). And yet, investments have been made in them that suggest running backs still do matter.
I think the truth has a little more grey area to it, an unhappy middle, but maybe the league is starting to see value in a diverse backfield now. That’s a wonderful news development for anyone who totes the rock.
Like an outdated fashion trend gone retro, running backs are coming back. Hey, if corduroy can be popular again, so can this football position.
The decline of the tight end
Quick. Outside of Travis Kelce and George Kittle, name one star NFL tight end off the top of your head. Okay, I’ll give you Mark Andrews. Sure, Dallas Goedert counts, too. Why not. No, Kyle Pitts doesn’t fit the bill for now. That sophomore season was disastrous.
Stuck? Don’t worry, I’ll give you a minute. (Jeopardy! theme plays)
…
…
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Okay, time’s up. I think I’ve made my point. The list of current elite NFL tight ends is short, and the future of the position doesn’t grow brighter as Kelce and Kittle get older. The 2023 draft didn’t help the situation.
Heads of the class like Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer, and Darnell Washington are all respectable players on paper. But only Kincaid was a first-round pick. Mayer had an unexpected slide, while Washington almost fell to the fourth round. (Never mind how not sold I am on Kincaid’s fit with the Bills.)
If NFL teams saw much potential in Kincaid’s tight end peers, I can’t imagine Mayer and Washington would’ve waited that long. But they did. And it’s another setback for the value of the “Y” and “H” in the big leagues, where star tight ends used to be the norm.
After an era that featured the primes of Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Kelce (who is obviously still kicking), and Greg Olsen, among so many others. Now, it feels like we’re watching teams lose sight of what it means to create consistent matchup problems by owning the middle of the field with defacto basketball players. That, or they understandably don’t want to wait for a rookie tight end to develop. Tight end draft classes have been kind of weak overall lately, too.
This is a strange trend of scarcity at a position that we’ll have to continue to monitor in the coming years.
