The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ($TNX) surged to 5.041% earlier today, marking its highest level since July 2007 and representing an 86-basis-point climb since the start of 2026. This 19-year high in benchmark borrowing costs has arrived at a critical juncture, with the Federal Reserve commencing its two-day policy meeting Tuesday and a rate decision expected Wednesday afternoon.
Markets are pricing in a 92.7% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, per CME’s FedWatch Tool, which would lift the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. That overwhelming consensus in favor of a rate hike is a dramatic shift from roughly 59% just one week ago.
