The certainty is that Warren Gatland will be hoping for as much good news as possible on the injury front in the coming weeks, particularly with a game against the number one ranked side in world rugby on the horizon.
Wales' men open their Six Nations campaign on February 4, 2023, against Ireland in Cardiff.
After a dreadful autumn series, they will be fancied by few to spring a surprise, but positive tidings on the injury front would improve their prospects.
We take a look at those who are on the casualty list and missed the autumn but might return for the start of the championship:
Taine Basham
The all-action flanker dislocated an elbow playing for the Dragons against Cardiff in October.
Competition at openside is fierce and Tommy Reffell took his chance in the summer before sustaining an injury against New Zealand. Justin Tipuric then moved to No. 7 with Jac Morgan replacing Dan Lydiate after the blindside’s knock against Argentina and going on to play the house down against the Pumas, Georgia and Australia.
But Basham is another rare talent who Gatland might just fancy. He didn’t have surgery after his injury. There is a chance he could be fit to face Pau in Newport on December 17.
Leon Brown
A shoulder injury which required surgery has kept the big man off limits this season, but he’s close to a return.
There had been suggestions he could face the Stormers last weekend and he did travel to South Africa but didn’t take the field.
The Dragons won’t rush him, with Dai Flanagan stressing this week “there might be a bit of a journey for him yet”.
There seems a decent chance, though, Brown will be up and running in the new year. Gatland will be pleased to see the player Richard Hibbard once dubbed “a fantastic beast ” back in the mix. So will the Dragons.
Johnny Williams
It’s an upbeat picture for the Scarlets centre, who has been battling a troublesome calf muscle injury. His region are hopeful he will be able to play a part in the festive derbies.
Williams had a fine start to the season, shining in adversity for the Scarlets. He will want to show Gatland he has what it takes to be a serious Six Nations and World Cup contender.
Wyn Jones
The prop just doesn’t seem to be able to get going. Indeed, since the Lions tour he has had just four starts for the Scarlets, with a knee injury his latest concern.
Gatland has a lot of time for him, though, having handed Jones a Test place with the Lions in 2021 and seen him impress for Wales at the last World Cup. The Scarlets hope Jones will be back in the new year.
Liam Williams
He suffered a collarbone injury playing for Cardiff against Munster on September 18. At the time it was suggested he would need between 12 and 16 weeks to recover.
Happily, Williams is on course to return during the festive derbies.
It’s a major plus for Cardiff and for Wales, who had to play wings Louis Rees-Zammit and Josh Adams out of position at full-back during the autumn.*
Josh Navidi
Another Cardiff player who shouldn’t be sidelined for much longer. The flanker suffered a "neurological neck injury" during Wales’ final Test with South Africa over the summer.
But his club say he’s on the mend. "Josh's neck didn't progress as quickly as everyone wanted, so the operation was necessary,” said Cardiff director of rugby Dai Young. “But he is feeling a lot better now. He's been cracking on with his rehab and is in a much better place. He should be back in the new year, so he's not too far away."
Dewi Lake
Again, there’s progress here, with Lake pencilled in for a return sometime in the coming weeks. A shoulder injury has kept him out since October.
But the 6ft 1in, 17st 4lb forward has resumed non-contact training and is in with a shout of facing Montpellier for the Ospreys in France on December 17. You would have thought Gatland would enjoy his power, dynamism and raw physicality.
Dan Biggar
Wayne Pivac’s captain for last term’s Six Nations and summer tour sustained a knee injury playing for Northampton Saints against Wasps in October, ruling him out of Wales’ autumn series.
Biggar has since completed his move to Toulon. He has yet to make his debut but he passed a medical to join the French club.
Gatland will hope he is back up to speed well before the start of the Six Nations.
Will Rowlands
The 6ft 8in Dragon is not sticking around in Welsh rugby after agreeing a deal with Racing 92 which starts next season. He’s out of action, anyway, right now after damaging a shoulder while on Wales duty in November.
It will be interesting to see whether something is worked out to allow Welsh rugby’s men's player of the year to feature at the 2023 World Cup, with the 60-cap rule in danger of ruling him out, depending on when he starts with Racing.
Surgery on his damaged shoulder was a success, but no timeline has been set for his return by the Dragons. There’s a decent chance he’ll play a part in the championship.
Elliot Dee
A player who Gatland handed a lot of caps to, but he has been out since damaging his collarbone against Zebre in October. Surgery followed.
At the time, Dragons head coach Dai Flanagan reckoned Dee could be back just before the Six Nations.
And here’s two who’ll need some good fortune:
Gareth Anscombe
This one isn’t looking great, with Anscombe suffering what the Ospreys say is a long-term injury while playing for Wales against Australia on November 26.
According to the region, he’s “unlikely” to be ready for the start of the Six Nations.
The Ospreys have brought in Owen Williams as an injury replacement.
Exactly when Anscombe will return is unclear. The timeline is going to be pretty lengthy, according to Ospreys head coach Toby Booth.
Dan Lydiate
An arm injury sustained against Argentina on November 12 is keeping the blindside flanker off limits.
It’s not expected to be a quick fix.
“Dan Lydiate is recovering from a broken arm, so he’s naturally going to be a little bit of time yet,” reported Toby Booth this week.
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