Gas prices spike in the U.S. as Iran conflict escalates

In Oklahoma, which consistently has the cheapest gas in the nation, this meant a 33-cent increase in the average price. All but one southern state along the Mississippi, which typically have the lowest prices in the country, saw prices rise more than the national average, according to AAA.

“Even before the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, gasoline prices were poised to begin climbing on seasonal expectations of increased demand and higher production costs,” said Jillian Young, director of public relations for AAA Northeast, in a report Monday.

“When markets react to geopolitical conflict, rising oil prices put upward pressure on gas prices, but time will tell how large the impact will be at the pump.”

After U.S. military strikes on Iran began this past weekend, gas data site GasBuddy posted to X Monday its prediction that gas prices would rise 10 cents to 30 cents a gallon “over the next two weeks.”

“Heads up, drivers: You may see gas prices increase soon,” the company said. “Ongoing geopolitical events are contributing to higher oil prices, which are a major factor in what you pay at the pump.”

President Donald Trump admitted Tuesday during an Oval Office meeting that gas prices will be higher “for a little while” but went on to claim that prices would drop and may end up being “lower than before” when the conflict concludes.

Typically, geopolitical events like the Iran conflict impact gas prices because oil infrastructure, such as refineries and shipping lanes, is disrupted.

This is the case for the Strait of Hormuz, which borders Iran and several other countries in the Middle East. Around 20 percent of the world’s oil production passes through the strait, making it “one of the world's most important oil chokepoints”, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

When the waterway is under threat of conflict or war, global oil prices tend to rise, The Associated Press noted.

But it’s also common for gas prices to increase heading into spring, the AAA said. Refineries are starting to change their gas mixes to combat higher summer temperatures, and people tend to travel more.

“Refineries are beginning the process of producing summer-blend gasoline which contains pricier additives to help reduce evaporation during warmer months,” AAA wrote. “Gas demand is also expected to increase next month as spring break season kicks off and more drivers take road trips.”

Though the prices are high, many consumers aren’t feeling the full effect of the rise so far, said Jeff Lenard, vice president of media and strategic communications at the National Association of Convenience Stores, an industry advocate.

“Most retailers hold back the full price increase to remain as competitive as possible,” Lenard told The Independent in an email.

While consumers’ wallets will suffer because of higher prices, convenience stores will, too, particularly with how much non-gas inventory they sell.

“There are concerns about in-store sales,” Lenard said. “When someone spends more money on fuel, they have less to spend inside the store … In addition, higher prices on gas put customers in a bad mood, and that’s not good for additional sales beyond the fill-up.”