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The Latest Breaking News from MRCI

Does Your Portfolio Have Room for a 79% 5-Year Track Record ETF?

Equity investors often overlook market seasonality. Unfortunately, seasonality is usually tied to future markets. However, there are instances where the seasonality of commodities can enhance an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). Two significant commodities are entering a seasonal buy that will impact an outperforming homebuilder ETF. The Federal Reserve (FED) appears ready…

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Holding Corn? Ready to Sell at Higher Prices?

A corn trader should look to buy when prices approach levels near the cost of production, as further downside risk may be limited. With corn futures already down about 18% year-to-date due to increased supply expectations, traders should consider that prices at or below production costs tend to create upward…

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Cheaper Gasoline Prices And Higher Crude Oil Prices: But Why?

Gasoline prices typically fall in the autumn and early winter as demand decreases and gasoline retailers switch to cheaper winter-blend fuels. Additionally, Americans take fewer trips during this period, further reducing demand. OPEC is expected to increase production in December, which could contribute to further price declines. These combined factors…

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Could the US Government Fiscal Year-End Fund Your Trading Account?

The US government's fiscal year significantly impacts financial markets because the federal budget process influences economic policy, government spending, and fiscal stability. As the fiscal year draws to a close on September 30, market participants closely monitor budget negotiations, potential government shutdowns, and funding decisions, which can create uncertainty and…

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Could the US Government's Fiscal Year End Fund Your Trading Account?

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Yen Carry Trade is Yesterday's News, Seasonal Play is Next Opportunity

Recent concerns about the unwinding of yen carry trades and its potential impact on financial markets have proven less disruptive than anticipated. Despite other countries raising interest rates to combat post-pandemic inflation, Japan has kept borrowing costs low to address its long-term economic stagnation. Although the Bank of Japan (BoJ)…

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Good Inflation Numbers and Hints of Lower Interest Rates Support the Stock Market's Seasonal Rally

Recently released inflation numbers were tamer than expected, leading market participants to anticipate the Fed will cut rates at their next meeting. The stock market's seasonal buy will use this bullish information as wind to its back. The recent selloff in the stock market created an opportunity for bullish investors.…

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Tumbling Corn Prices Have More Room to the Downside

Corn market participants have seen a steep fall after prices peaked in the Spring of 2022. Last year's planting season rally saw prices peak at $6.30 based on the new crop December 2023 futures. Many farmers/producers held onto their crops, anticipating higher prices. However, record production in the US and…

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CPI Report Indicating Lower Inflation: What to Buy and What to Sell?

After the recent CPI numbers were released, investor sentiment indicated an 85% likelihood of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting, up from approximately 70% the prior trading session. This expectation shift has boosted the appeal of gold, as declining interest rates make gold more attractive. Following the…

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The Spring Doldrums in The Gold Market May Be Changing Soon

Over the past five years, data shows distinct patterns in the seasonality of gold prices. September has consistently been weak, with prices often closing lower than they opened, suggesting a decrease in market confidence or a shift in investment focus. In contrast, due to increased buying, July has shown a…

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The Corn Bulls Continue Their Chatter as Prices Keep Making New Lows

This time last year, new crop corn futures traded above $6.00 due to low supply caused by adverse weather and geopolitical issues, including the invasion of Ukraine. US farmers expected these trends to persist and held onto their crops, anticipating price increases. However, a record production year in the US…

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Stock Market: Will New Quarter Bring New Money?

As a new quarter approaches, investors are eager to see if fresh capital will flow into the stock market. With economic indicators showing mixed signals and the Federal Reserve pausing, market participants closely watch for signs of renewed investment. Will the promise of cooling inflation and a potential easing cycle…

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Seasonal Downtrend in Interest Rates Gains Momentum

Another Federal Reserve Board meeting has left the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50%. Due to the stickiness of inflation being higher than their 2% target, they have reduced the chances of rate cuts to only once this year instead of the original 3-4 times. The 10-year Treasury…

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Corn Prices – Sub $3.25 Before $6.00 Per Bushel?

Based on the continuous futures contract, corn prices peaked at nearly $8.25 in May 2022. The rally was in response to the Russian attack on Ukraine, forcing international grain prices to rally. Since that time, the price has declined to $4.50. Corn has a bullish seasonal pattern after the planting…

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Long-Term Yields Poised to Fall – Lower Mortgage Rates Near

Are you looking to buy a new home or refinance at a lower rate? The media is talking about rates being higher for longer. And they are correct about short-term rates that don't impact mortgages as much as longer-term yields do. While the Fed plays political games to garner votes…

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Nasdaq Market Has Perfect Bullish Historical Pattern – Don't Sell in May!

"Sell in May and come back after Labor Day" is a well-known adage in the stock market that suggests investors should sell their stock holdings in May and return to the market after Labor Day in September. But, like so many market clichés, sayings that aren't supported by historical data…

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What's Left in the US Dollar Seasonal Rally?

Despite no signs of deceleration in US growth and geopolitical risk, the US Dollar has rallied 6% off its year-to-date seasonal low. While the European Central Bank (ECB) is considering rate cuts in June, Great Britain is in a recession, and the US continues to have a sticky inflation rate,…

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Is Crude Oil Sitting at a Critical Trend Juncture?

After a volatile week in crude oil futures, Friday saw slightly higher prices at the close. However, for the week, crude oil fell for the second time in two weeks. Two nuclear-armed countries fired missiles and drones upon each other for the first time in history. The US will be…

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Aussie Dollar: Exploring the Bullish Seasonal Dynamics of the Aussie Dollar and Western Australia's Harvest Cycle

While countries struggle with Central Bank indecisions on interest rates, the harvest season in Australia is predictable. Australia boasts a robust commodity base, frequently called a commodity currency. Commodities account for a large share of Australia's exports, so movements in commodity prices result in movements in export prices. Exports lead…

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Crude Oil: Is Oil Preparing for Higher Prices?

Late December's tax-driven selling pressures drove oil prices down. As if on cue, seasonal buying pressure emerged, injecting a fresh wave of optimism into the crude oil market. This demand is not without purpose; it marks the onset of preparations for the impending summer driving season. Refiners embark on a…

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Gold Slips as Markets Brace for Fed's Decision: A Week of Central Bank Moves and Economic Signals

The recent gold rally stalled on March 08, at $2,203, and has since ground lower as the market awaits this week's global Central Banks decisions on interest rates and economic conditions. Gold's recent rally has good support from the managed money community. Have the funds become too optimistic too quickly?…

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Copper: Higher Prices – Head Fake or Breakout?

Copper prices traded on the CMEGroup Exchange surged today as the market broke out of a 7-month trading range. Early indications are that the move was tied to news that Chinese smelters agreed to cut production. China is the world leader in copper imports, and the smelters process half of…

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Pound Sterling Surges Against US Dollar: Can the Rally Continue?

The bulls have woken the sleeping GBP/USD. Since mid-December 2023, the GBP/USD weekly chart has seen sideways trading activity. The past five trading days have seen a 1.55% increase in value, adding to a year-to-date .94% increase. The question becomes, will the rally continue? As the UK's fiscal first quarter…

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US Crude Oil Inventories Surge Beyond Expectations: How Will This Impact the Seasonal Buy?

Since mid-December, when the crude oil futures made a seasonal low, the market has steadily traded higher. A typical seasonal pattern usually sees crude oil bottoming in December or January before rallying into May 01. But what if you missed the first leg of this uptrend? Is there an upcoming…

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Mexican Peso: Will the Peso Surge Due to Monetary Policy and a Seasonal Buy?

Who will cut rates first, Banxico (Mexico's Central Bank) or the Federal Reserve (US Central Bank)? With a 5.75% spread (favoring Mexico) of short-term interest rates, the carry trade has money flowing into the Mexican Peso. As both countries prepare for upcoming elections, there is sure to be volatility in…

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