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Our top chart strategist takes a look at a massive options trade on natural gas futures, and the bullish catalysts that could help price play out to the upside.

Natural gas is a seasonal commodity that tends to rally during the winter as the demand for heating increases. U.S. natural gas futures prices are already around the $4 per MMBtu level as the market heads into the year’s coldest months.

Natural gas is on the rise, and these exchange-traded products can give investors an easy way to benefit, although all carry risks as well.

Natural gas prices have been surging from geopolitical, political and now artic weather hitting temperatures not seen in almost 30 years in the East Coast.

Natural gas inventories in the United States decline from November through March. The peak heating season increases the demand for the energy commodity. The beginning of the withdrawal season, when stockpiles fall at the beginning of the withdrawal season, U.S. natural gas prices tend to increase to seasonal highs.

Natural gas is one of the most volatile commodities traded on the futures exchange. The highly seasonal energy commodity is heading toward the peak demand season when inventories decline, but the price remains below the $3 per MMBtu level.

Nearby U.S. natural gas prices are flirting with the $2 per MMBtu level despite a record-hot summer, during which cooling demand has increased. Over the coming months, the market will shift to concerns over the peak heating season, when natural gas futures prices tend to reach highs.

Natural gas prices plunged in 2023, posting the most significant loss in the energy sector. The low price level presented an opportunity as the natural gas futures market moves into 2024. European prices will likely influence U.S. futures as the war in Ukraine continues to rage.

The U.S. natural gas futures market is now weeks away from the start of the 2023/2024 peak season, where inventories decline as the demand for heating increases. Natural gas prices have moved higher, breaking out to the upside above technical resistance levels during the first week of October.