The Minnesota Vikings’ bye week promises to be anything but quiet for head coach Kevin O’Connell. While players will have the week off, O’Connell will be making a decision on who will be his starting quarterback when the Vikings resume the season a week from Sunday in Las Vegas.
Starter Kirk Cousins was lost to a season-ending Achilles’ injury in Week 8 at Green Bay and while Joshua Dobbs was a great story in his first two appearances with the Vikings, he has six turnovers in the past two games. Dobbs had a fumble and an interception in a loss at Denver and threw four picks in Monday night’s loss against Chicago.
O’Connell gave no assurances Dobbs would keep the starting job after that game or during his press conference on Tuesday. So who will get the start against the Raiders?
Let’s examine the situation.
The favorite: Nick Mullens
Nick Mullens, acquired by the Vikings to be Kirk Cousins’ backup before the 2022 season, likely would have become the starter when Cousins got hurt in October but he had been placed on injured reserve earlier in the month.
Mullens, 28, was activated from IR in the middle of November and was the No. 2 quarterback for the past two games. The thought of Mullens starting won’t excite many, but O’Connell might be more comfortable with the veteran under center than Dobbs or Jaren Hall, who was a fifth-round pick in the draft last spring.
O’Connell wants a quarterback who can run his system and limit mistakes. The fact Mullens has two years of familiarity with this system also helps.
Mullens was signed by San Francisco in 2017 as an undrafted free agent from Southern Mississippi (yes, the same school as Brett Favre), and has made 17 starts and 24 career appearances with the 49ers and Browns. He has completed 65.3 percent of his passes with 27 touchdowns and 24 interceptions in those 24 games.
Mullens isn’t a running threat — he has lost 3 yards on 34 rushing attempts — but O’Connell is more concerned with having a quarterback who can consistently be on the same page as his receivers.
O’Connell also wants to protect the ball but that’s not a given with Mullens. In addition to his interception total, Mullens also has lost four of eight career fumbles.
We’re giving Mullens the edge because of his knowledge of the system and also because O’Connell admits he wants to play the quarterback who will have the most success working with Pro Bowl wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Jefferson is set to return from a hamstring injury that cost him seven games.
Mullens’ experience and time in the Vikings’ system are likely to be the biggest factors in O’Connell’s decision.
Also in consideration: Jaren Hall
Hall can’t be dismissed from consideration, given he was the starter in the Vikings’ victory at Atlanta in Week 9. The rookie got the nod because Mullens wasn’t available and Dobbs had been obtained a few days earlier from the Arizona Cardinals.
Hall only lasted two series before suffering a concussion as he attempted to run for a touchdown from the Falcons’ 4-yard line. He completed 5-of-6 passes for 78 yards and scrambled for 11 yards on two carries.
So why not put Hall back under center?
There are two reasons: 1) Mullens would have been the starter, had he not been injured; and 2) The Vikings remain very much in the NFC playoff picture.
The Vikings never intended to start the 25-year-old Hall this season when they drafted him out of BYU and O’Connell is going to go with the guy he thinks gives the Vikings the best chance to make the playoffs.
Cousins is going to be a free agent at the end of the season, and the Vikings are a .500 team, so there might be a case to be made that it would be wise to look at Hall to see what he can do. But O’Connell isn’t going to be concerned about the future when his team is trying to make a playoff push.
The long shot: Joshua Dobbs
Dobbs became one of the best stories of the NFL season when he joined the Vikings at the trade deadline and led them to consecutive victories over the Falcons and Saints.
Dobbs had little knowledge of the Vikings’ system and, with some in-game assistance from O’Connell, was able to combine his speed with his passing ability. But that wasn’t the case Monday as Dobbs had only two rushing attempts for 11 yards.
That isn’t the reason I’m almost positive Dobbs won’t start against the Raiders. The issue is Dobbs’ tendency to turn over the ball — something that O’Connell simply can’t tolerate.
This isn’t a recent problem.
Dobbs made the first two starts of his career for the Tennessee Titans last season and had two interceptions and lost two of the four fumbles he committed. Dobbs was the starter for the Cardinals’ first eight games of this season and had five interceptions and eight fumbles (four lost).
In four games with the Vikings, he has five touchdown passes, five interceptions with six fumbles and three lost. The Vikings’ .500 record can be directly linked to their NFL-high 24 turnovers, and O’Connell can’t assume Dobbs is going to clean up his issues with turnovers.
Final prediction
The Vikings will hope Mullens can have enough success to stick as their starter for the final five games of the regular season and play well enough to help them sneak into the playoffs.
It won’t be surprising if Hall ends up as the backup, and Mullens’ replacement if he struggles, and Dobbs is the third guy on the depth chart when the Vikings return from their bye week.
Judd Zulgad is co-host of the Purple Daily Podcast and Mackey & Judd podcast at www.skornorth.com.
