Zack Polanski’s Greens could win a dozen seats in London at the next general election, according to a bombshell new poll.
His party is on course to win at least two constituencies in the capital, Hackney South and Shoreditch, and Leyton and Wanstead, the survey by More in Common suggests.
But the Greens are in second place in a further 26 constituencies, and 10 of these are very close races which were won by Labour at the 2024 election with a margin of less than 5 per cent.
Luke Tryl, UK Director of More in Common, told The Standard: “In an election held today, Labour could lose 13 of its London seats, 15 more would be hanging on by a thread, with the Green Party close behind and threatening to topple some of Labour’s most senior figures.“
The projections, which would be a political earthquake in London, come as Labour is already facing a hammering at the May local elections when it could lose some 600 council seats in the capital, or around half that it currently holds.
The Greens, who scored a shock by-election victory against Reform UK in Kent last week, could win hundreds of council seats in the capital, as could Nigel Farage’s party in the polls in less than a month’s time.
Faced with such a nightmare scenario, Labour chair Anna Turley is urging MPs from around the country to join efforts to limit losses in London while they are in the capital to attend Parliament.
She has written to all Labour MPs newly elected in 2024, stressing: “Every London council seat is up for election in May.
“I know you’re all doing great work across the country but let’s use our time in the big smoke to help our Labour family there.”
The MRP poll suggests that Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy may be in a fierce battle to retain his Tottenham seat against the Greens, as could Communities Secretary Steve Reed in Streatham and Croydon North, and Dame Emily Thornberry in Islington South and Finsbury.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting would lose in Ilford North to an independent candidate, according to the research, which has Labour ending up with 46 out of London’s 75 seats, compared to 59 at the last election.
Labour would lose seven seats to the Conservatives, including Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Finchley and Golders Green, Kensington and Bayswater, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Sir Keir Starmer would hold onto his Holborn and St Pancras seat but his party would also lose Bexleyheath and Crayford to Mr Farage’s Reform, as well as Dagenham and Rainham.
Mr Tryl added: “In recent years, London has become Labour’s most important stronghold, but our latest model suggests that even here, the party could be under siege.
“What’s striking about this model is that Labour could now find itself fending off attacks from every direction.
“Reform UK are making gains in eastern outer London, while the Liberal Democrats, Conservatives, Greens and Independents could carve up much of the capital.”
Reform would gain Hornchurch and Upminster from the Tories, as well as Romford where MP Andrew Rosindell has defected from the Conservatives to Mr Farage’s party.
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey would hold his Kingston and Surbiton seat, with his party also keeping its MPs in Carshalton and Wallington, Sutton and Cheam, Richmond Park, Twickenham, and Wimbledon.
Jeremy Corbyn would retain his Islington North seat, and Labour would lose to an independent in Bethnal Green and Stepney.
Despite the grim findings for Labour, it is slightly more positive than More in Common’s January MRP poll which had the party losing 17 seats in London.
Nationwide, Reform would win 324 seats, just shy of a Commons majority, and down 57 on the January survey.
Labour would have 101 seats, the Conservatives 81, Lib Dems 62, SNP 26, Greens 22, Plaid Cymru 5 and “others” 10.
Reform could claim the seats of Chancellor Rachel Reeves (Leeds West and Pudsey) and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper (Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley), while the Greens may also defeat Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones (Bristol North West).
MRP surveys are based on large-scale polling of sections of society and extrapolating to get constituency results.
More in Common’s sample size was 15,482, with the fieldwork carried out from March 1st to 30th.
