Among the fighter jets and military helicopters performing for the crowds at the Paris airshow last week, a strange two-seater craft lifted off the runway. Like a drone crossed with a helicopter, the Volocopter has an electric motor and a white wasp-shaped body, on top of which sits a circular frame supporting 18 separate sets of blades, or rotors. With that short flight, the dream of making flying taxis for the masses moved a little closer to becoming reality.
Made by a German startup, Volocopter was the only such vehicle actually flying at the show, while other companies displayed mock-ups. Getting from the costly design and testing phase to even costlier manufacturing will be a major challenge for the industry. Not all of the competitors will survive.
Companies hoping to make flying taxis – the industry refers to them as eVTOLs (electric vertical take-off and landing) or urban air mobility – have already had a tough two years. The sector became one of the most notable examples of the pandemic-era financial bubble – second perhaps to the crypto boom and bust – as investors sought an aerial Tesla, capable of flying passengers with zero carbon emissions for the first time.
However, the subsequent surge in interest rates around the world has made investors wary of companies with untested products and exuberant growth forecasts. The US contenders Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation, Germany’s Lilium, and Vertical Aerospace, owned by British energy entrepreneur Stephen Fitzpatrick, listed during the pandemic via mergers with cash shell companies. The valuation of all of them has fallen, in some cases dramatically, since then.
“The whole industry has fallen into, I would say, this big economic depression, which was largely induced as the interest rate increased,” said Klaus Roewe, Lilium’s chief executive. That has now turned around, “not in enthusiasm, but it’s getting out of the depression”, he said.
He predicted that Lilium’s share price would recover further, allowing the company to raise more capital (following a bailout last month by the Chinese tech conglomerate Tencent) so it can complete the final stretch of getting certified as safe by aviation regulators.
While valuations came down to earth, prototypes have belatedly been taking off – albeit mostly in uncrewed flights in remote test fields. The race to market has drawn in both traditional plane makers – Europe’s Airbus, the US’s Boeing and Brazil’s Embraer – and a clutch of pretenders who believe they can challenge the established groups.
The carmaker Stellantis is one of the more surprising new entrants, through a small stake in Silicon Valley-based Archer. It is not just money that it is providing: Stellantis will also build Archer’s Midnight aircraft in a new factory in Georgia, US.
Carlos Tavares, chief executive of Stellantis, told reporters at the airshow that the carmaker had taken an interest because “first, it’s fun”, but also because it would prevent customers from being “victim of a three-hour traffic jam”.
Where Stellantis can go toe-to-toe with aerospace companies is mass production. It builds 600,000 cars a month, Tavares noted, compared with the 42,600 planes Boeing expects to be sold in the next 20 years. If it ramps up production successfully to 650 per year, Archer will produce the most crewed aircraft of any factory in the world.
The start of paid-for trips will test which technology will win out. The first product from Volocopter, which is part-owned by Airbus, is one of a clutch of vehicles that take the principle of quadcopter drones (of the type often seen buzzing over beauty spots) and scale them up to fit two humans. The relative familiarity of the design has meant Volocopter is aiming to fly members of the public during the Paris Olympic Games next year.
EHang, Chinese-owned but New York-listed, is another of the companies that has almost got through the certification process in its home market, with another two-seater model that relies on rotors alone – but which is also hoping to fly autonomously. Reliance on constant lift from rotors means Volocopter and EHang will only manage ranges of about 35km and 30km respectively – enough for jaunts around cities and their outskirts.
That is a different proposition to the likes of Archer, Embraer’s Eve Air Mobility, or Boeing’s Wisk (which is also going straight for pilotless travel). Their models all have wings combined with different combinations of propellers – or electric jet engines in the case of Lilium. Wings produce their own lift, cutting energy usage and therefore extending ranges to 100km and beyond.
Those differences are in part a reflection of different hopes for what eVTOLs will actually be for. Helicopters – expensive, noisy, complex and polluting – are in the sights of most of the companies. The longer-range versions are also eyeing the market for “regional” city-to-city jets.
Yet the eVTOL bosses uniformly insist their products will also be cheap and simple enough to rival car taxis.
Lilium’s Roewe acknowledges that its early sales efforts will be competing with the private planes and helicopters of the ultra-wealthy. But “rich people flying it will also be a good showcase for us”, he said.
Roewe is convinced that eventually they will be cheaper than taxis on some routes, with a price for customers of between $2 or $3 per kilometre.
Eve is aiming for something similar – about $3 per kilometre – said Andre Stein, the company’s chief executive. Compared with helicopters, the vehicle uses less energy, has much lower maintenance costs, and could also require less stringent qualifications to fly, he said.
Electric cars have the same advantages, but a host of well-funded automotive startups have missed sales targets. A similarly difficult few years could be ahead for flying-taxi companies.
“Not necessarily everyone” will make it through, said Stein. “Not everybody will go through [the] certification process. It is very challenged for everybody. So I don’t think all of the players will go through – but a few will.”
