AN SNP MP’s claim that a hung Parliament in Westminster could create an opportunity for a future independence referendum has been rejected by figures across the Yes movement.
Lara Bird, MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, told The National podcast last week that she believed the 2029 General Election could give the SNP negotiating power if a minority Labour Government had to depend on smaller parties to pass legislation.
It comes after the UK Government almost immediately rejected Holyrood’s bid for a Section 30 order to hold a referendum, requested in the first vote of the new Scottish Parliamentary term following the May election.
Ahead of polling day, First Minister John Swinney argued that if the SNP won a majority of seats at the election, that would constitute the only proven path to achieving a legally recognised referendum. Swinney cited the precedent set in 2011, when Alex Salmond led the SNP to a majority in Holyrood, which resulted in the 2014 independence referendum being agreed by Westminster.
However, the SNP did not achieve a majority, returning 58 MSPs rather than the required 65. But with 15 Scottish Green MSPs, the Scottish Parliament elected a record pro-independence majority of 73.
This was not respected as a mandate by the UK Government following the election, and Keir Starmer’s replacement Andy Burnham has said that discussions around independence are “off limits” in recent weeks.
This has led to debate about how the SNP can move the independence cause forward, and secure a referendum, when dealing with a Westminster that refuses to engage on the issue.
What did Lara Bird say?
“I THINK you've got to be really realistic about what's going to happen in Westminster,” Bird told The National podcast, when she suggested there were alternative options to repeatedly asking for a referendum.
“I think there's a really strong chance that we have a hung parliament in Westminster,” she added, pointing to recent polling that suggested a Labour minority government after the next General Election.
Bird argued that in that scenario, Labour would “have to work really closely” with other parties and smaller parties and that “deals could be struck and negotiations would be had about how Labour got what they wanted while also giving others what they wanted”.
“I think that provides a very unique opportunity for the SNP down in Westminster where we are likely going to return – I hope we certainly return – 40 plus MPs at the next General Election where in a hung parliament, that gives us a really strong opportunity to negotiate with a Labour Government,” she added.
The MP also suggested that the party should look at how to “invoke external pressure” and work with devolved governments in Northern Ireland and Wales to “advocate for independence”.
What has the response been?
GILLIAN Mackay, the Scottish Greens co-leader and constitution spokesperson, said that the party rejects the premise that Scotland’s future should depend on the result of an election at the Westminster level.
“If the SNP now believe Scotland’s future depends on a chaotic hung parliament at Westminster, then the clearest route is not more SNP MPs; it is a majority made up of Scottish Green MPs, and the only major party in the rest of the UK that supports Scotland’s right to choose: the Green Party of England and Wales,” she said.
“But we should reject that premise entirely. Scotland’s democratic future should not depend on how people in England vote, whether Labour scrape together a minority government, or whether Westminster descends into chaos.
“Waiting and hoping for a hung parliament that would grant Scotland permission through political bargaining is not a message of hope, and it is certainly not a plan.”
Mackay insisted that Scotland can become independent “regardless” of the result of a Westminster election, and that the decision should be with people in Scotland, not “whichever party manages to get the right deal in London”.
“Scotland voted for its right to choose, it must now get the chance to do so,” she added.
Toni Giugliano, the SNP’s former policy convener, recently put forward a three-point plan that he believes would break the deadlock on independence in a letter to Swinney.
He previously told the Sunday National that relying “solely on seeking permission from Westminster isn’t working”.
Giugliano argued for a constitutional convention to agree within two years the mechanism for a referendum, to prepare to fight the 2029 General Election as a “constitutional election”, and to use part of SNP membership fees to fund a Yes campaign outside of political party boundaries.
“I agree with Lara that the next General Election will be the next key opportunity for the independence movement – but only if it’s fought as a constitutional election that mobilises the 50% of voters who back independence,” Giugliano said.
“I’m yet to hear a single argument as to why we should run a business-as-usual election as we had in 2024 where our message was drowned out by our opponents.
“We're not contesting to form the next UK Government – we're fighting for Scotland's future. That means putting Scotland's right to choose front and centre, backed by a properly organised and resourced Yes campaign.
“By front and centre, I don’t mean as a passing mention in a press release or buried in a manifesto – I mean building a wave of democratic pressure and giving people hope that a better Scotland is within our grasp.”
Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, founder of Believe in Scotland, the campaign group for Scottish independence, was also sceptical about Bird’s suggestion.
“I think the last thing the independence movement wants to hear right now is that, maybe there will be a hung parliament and deals to be done,” he told the Sunday National.
“We need the pro-indy political parties to take control of our nation’s destiny and we shouldn't even be considering balance of power scenarios. We have heard it all before. It didn’t work then, and it won’t work now.
“At this point, I also think it is fanciful to imagine that the SNP, even with others, could hold the balance of power at Westminster.
“Without visible progress on independence, a General Election framed as Labour versus the far-right would reduce the SNP to an afterthought, as they were in 2024.
“Many independence supporters would sit on their hands if all the SNP had to offer on independence is to ask again, and even then only as part of a deal to keep Labour in power.”
MacIntyre-Kemp added that in a hung parliament scenario, any deal Labour sought to make with nationalist parties could force the Tories and Reform into a “majority coalition to protect the Union”.
“No referendum deal would ever happen,” he said.
Believe in Scotland is “getting ready to campaign in a referendum or de facto referendum,” he added.
Former SNP MP Angus MacNeil, who later joined Alba before it collapsed, said that this showed a “poverty of ideas” coming from the party.
"All the strategy amounts to is waiting three years for the roulette wheel of a Westminster hung parliament. If it doesn't happen, presumably the answer is to wait another five years,” he said.
"The SNP have to wake up and realise that one thing Westminster won't be hung or divided over is another Scottish referendum. On that, the Westminster parties are united in preventing Scotland becoming as successful as Ireland or Norway.”
