The yes campaign for the Indigenous voice to parliament referendum is outspending voice opponents on social media, but critics say its broad approach is failing to counter the no camp’s more targeted tactics.
Yes campaigners have spent approximately $180,000 more on Facebook ads than the no campaign since 1 January, Guardian Australia analysis has found.
But this ad spend is being spread more evenly across the country than the targeted advertising of the no campaign. When population is taken into account, its ad targeting is highest in the smallest states and territories.
This isn’t necessarily value for money, some argue: spending by the yes camp in places like the ACT for example is a “complete waste of money”, according to Kos Samaras, director at political strategy firm RedBridge Group.
“It’s like spending buckets of money in the most progressive parts of Melbourne and Sydney,” he said. “One, they’re engaged and the yes vote is very high there.”
The yes camp does have a more difficult road to victory than no and will need to run up numbers in supportive parts of the country: referendums require a “double majority” to change the constitution, a steep benchmark that requires a majority of voters in a majority of states and a national majority to pass.
A Yes23 spokesperson said the campaign was using a number of other strategies on top of social media and advertising and emphasised its ground game and ability to have face-to-face conversations with voters.
“Our army of volunteers will be out every day on the ground in communities between now and referendum day – talking to people, doorknocking, handing out yes pamphlets at shopping centres and speaking at local information sessions,” he said.
Who is behind the yes campaign?
In 2022 the federal government gave deductible gift recipient status to the group Australians for Indigenous Constitutional Recognition, which in effect recognised its offshoot, Yes23, as the primary yes campaign. AICR has reportedly received approximately $30m in donations.
Another major yes campaign group is the Uluru Dialogue, which is co-chaired by Megan Davis and Pat Anderson and based at the University of NSW’s Indigenous Law Centre. The Indigenous women are two of the architects of the Uluru statement from the heart – Davis was the first person to read the document aloud in 2017.
Campaign sources say the two organisations cooperate and share information, but are campaigning in different ways.
Uluru Dialogue has so far only run three Facebook ads in 2023 – it has focused more on smaller grassroots community events in regional centres, hosting information sessions and its online “yarning circles”. It also launched the “history is calling” television ads.
There are also a number of other smaller groups doing digital advertising and organising events, which were not included in the Guardian’s ad spend analysis.
Yes campaign ads not geo-targeted
Unlike Yes23, which is almost exclusively advertising through one Facebook page, the no campaign has created several pages that are used to target tailored messages to specific demographics.
Previous reporting has shown the no pages are largely ignoring New South Wales and Victoria in their ad outlay – two states where polling consistently suggests a majority are likely to vote yes.
So far, the yes campaign’s Google and YouTube ads are not geo-targeted beyond being aimed at Australia (Google’s library only includes ads since May). The no campaign, on the other hand, is focusing its Google and YouTube ad spend almost entirely on Tasmania, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, as well as specific postcodes in these states.
Its national ad targeting approach doesn’t mean the yes campaign is not trying to reach specific audiences.
Guardian Australia analysis found overall, the yes campaign is directing most of its ads towards young and middle-aged people, as well as women on Meta and Google, while tailoring some ads to particular demographics.
This Facebook ad about Cricket Australia’s support for the voice specifically targeted an audience more male than female, for example, and this rugby-related ad did the same.
‘You’re not inspiring anyone’
Key supporters of the voice outside the Yes23 inner circle have queried the vigour and tactics of the campaign in recent weeks.
While insiders and government sources have quietly raised expectations of a major public campaign and advertising push closer to the vote, many supporters have been asking for months when this will begin.
Others have questioned the strategy of not more forcefully disputing claims from the no side or defending campaigners from criticism.
“The no campaign, unchecked, has achieved a bunch of viral moments,” the GetUp chief executive, Larissa Baldwin, said.
“The yes campaign is compromising, running this milquetoast campaign to not offend anyone, but on the other side of not offending, you’re not inspiring anyone.”
Yes23’s Facebook ads have focused on endorsements from sporting codes and more recently, explanations about the purpose of the voice.
“Unlike the no campaign, who are just trying to win three states to block the referendum, we are running a positive campaign for all Australians to win a national majority and a majority in every state,” the Yes23 spokesperson said.
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, has indicated he plans to call the referendum with five or six weeks’ notice. Yes23 sources said the campaign strategy was a “balancing act” between activity now and keeping money and resources in reserve for the campaign proper.
Hopeful signs of a turnaround
Yes23 campaign sources say it has more than 20,000 active volunteers, about 200 supporter groups, including at least one in nearly every federal electorate, and is tapping into resources of the union movement and the Labor party.
Davis said she was confident yes would win. “No got a head start on us, off the blocks. Our job now is to turn the ship around [by] doing what we’ve been doing: talking face-to-face with Aussies about why we need this reform and cutting out the clutter.”
She said Uluru Dialogue would soon launch a new campaign to educate voters about the history and processes of the Uluru statement from the heart, to “re-anchor” the voice as the culmination of decades of progress toward recognition of Indigenous people. She said she felt the broader yes campaign was on track.
“I think we’ve got the right recipe. We’re seeing hopeful signs in research [that] there’s a turnaround.
“The main thing we have to do is make Australians confident that this will make a difference. That’s what they want to know. Our job is to explain to them why we sought the voice and why it’ll make a difference. And it will: it’ll be utterly transformative.”
