When we made our World Series picks entering the postseason, the Astros were the favorites in the American League, with five of our seven writers taking them to win the pennant. It’s true that only one of us (Emma Baccellieri) tabbed Houston to win the World Series, but that was more due to the strength of the top two National League teams, the Dodgers and the Braves.
The same cannot be said for the Phillies, who finished third in their division and had the worst record of any NL playoff team. None of our seven writers predicted that Philadelphia would make it this far. Instead, we split our NL pennant predictions between Atlanta (four) and Los Angeles (three).
The Phillies, however, have turned some of us into believers. Will faith and destiny be enough for Philadelphia to upset the Astros? Here are our picks:
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Tom Verducci
Matchup: Astros vs. Phillies
Prediction: Astros in six games
World Series MVP: Justin Verlander
Don’t underestimate the Phillies. They have a locked-in superstar hitter, a cast around Bryce Harper playing with extreme confidence, three excellent starting pitchers and two lockdown relievers who throw a hundred. Trouble for them is Houston’s pitching is even deeper, and that shows up over a seven-game series. The Astros have an answer for every game and every jam without overworking or overexposing their arms. Stat to remember: Houston is +373 over its opponents in net strikeouts this year.
Stephanie Apstein
Matchup: Astros vs. Phillies
Prediction: Astros in six games
World Series MVP: Alex Bregman
The Phillies may be the Team of Destiny, but I’m not picking against the Astros until I see them lose a playoff game.
Emma Baccellieri
Matchup: Astros vs. Phillies
Prediction: Astros in seven games
World Series MVP: Justin Verlander
The Phillies' run has been a joy to watch. It’s a showcase of how they’ve overcome so many areas that were originally flaws on this roster: The bullpen is better, the defense is better, and all of their sluggers are finally healthy at the same time. When all of those pieces are clicking at the same time (and they have been so far this October!), this team is a force to be reckoned with. At the same time ... the Astros are really, really, really good. This roster is just so deep and so balanced; the pitching, especially, is incredible. I can see the Phillies pushing this series deep. But it’s hard to pick against the Astros to win it all.
Claire Kuwana
Matchup: Astros vs. Phillies
Prediction: Phillies in six games
World Series MVP: Bryce Harper
Yes, the Astros have been literally unbeatable in the postseason thus far. But the Phillies have defied all other odds to get here, and as Matt Martell mentioned in the Five-Tool Newsletter on Monday, if one team is going to beat Houston, it’s going to be a seemingly weaker team from the NL East. Harper was in a bit of a slump coming back from his injury earlier this fall, but ever since the playoffs started, that has completely flipped—he looks like a star who could (with the help of Kyle Schwaber and Rhys Hoskins) legitimately carry his team to the title.
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Will Laws
Matchup: Astros vs. Phillies
Prediction: Phillies in six games
World Series MVP: Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola
The Astros may have more depth than the Phillies, but with Philadelphia’s pitching staff coming into the series well rested—and a regular off-day schedule returning during the series—that won’t matter as much. If Wheeler and Nola win their four starts, the Phillies will bring home the title, and that duo would then be well set up to follow in the footsteps of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling from Arizona’s 2001 title team as World Series co-MVPs.
Matt Martell
Matchup: Astros vs. Phillies
Prediction: Phillies in seven games
World Series MVP: Bryce Harper
Unlike the Yankees and Mariners, the Phillies have the left-handed bats to counteract the power righthanders in the Astros’ bullpen. Houston’s only lefty reliever, Will Smith, was left off the roster for the team’s first two playoff rounds. The Astros could choose to activate him for the World Series, just so he’s available in case they want a lefty-lefty matchup, but that might not be wise. Philadelphia hit .421/.476/.632 in five games this year against Smith, who spent the first four months of the season with Atlanta.
Nick Selbe
Matchup: Astros vs. Phillies
Prediction: Astros in six games
World Series MVP: Alex Bregman
Can the Team of Destiny pull off one more magic trick against the juggernaut Astros? I don’t think so. Houston has looked invincible all month, and while the storybook ending for the Phillies would conclude with them taking down the team everybody loves to hate, I see Goliath finishing the job. The Astros do not have obvious flaws, and Philadelphia will be rolling the dice in each game not started by Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola. Houston has a 1.88 ERA this postseason and a lineup that has too many key hitters in a groove to pick against.
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