Since becoming prime minister on 5 July, Sir Keir Starmer has only met with one of the two candidates hoping to be elected president – and it was not with his natural Democrat ally Kamala Harris, but Republican rival Donald Trump.
The lack of a meeting between Ms Harris and Sir Keir was not a snub from either side but reflects a twin-track approach that Labour has been taking in preparing for the outcome tomorrow for many months now, dating back to when they were still in opposition.
In what always looked set to be a tight presidential race, the Labour prime minister has known for a long time that he faced two very different scenarios from an outcome dependent on a handful of counties in a few swing states.
One was for an ally – who shares a similar legal background, is aligned ideologically and is on the same page regarding the big international issues – to be in the White House. But the other was for a US president with a volatile personality, who would happily rip up international consensus and sees his closest ally in Britain to be Nigel Farage on the hard right.
Getting ready for the first scenario is much easier, but preparing for the second has involved painstaking diplomacy and meticulous planning.
Working with Kamala Harris
If Ms Harris wins the US presidency then there is a huge prize on offer for Sir Keir. This has all the hallmarks of being a relationship between a British prime minister and US president not seen since the days of the ideological bedfellows Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, when the so-called special relationship was actually special.
Ms Harris, like Sir Keir, was a prosecutor before entering politics, and the pair take almost identical approaches to the need to build on international legal structures and take on populist nationalism. There is not a frontline issue where they disagree and ideologically they are both too right-wing for their own party activists but sit easily on the establishment social democratic big state left.
No wonder Labour boasted of sending 100 volunteers to help with the Democrat’s ground campaign in crucial states. This is a match made in heaven and an election they desperately want to see Ms Harris win. The help was not just support for a sister party but a symbol of a close working relationship to come.
Insuring against Trump
Sir Keir, foreign secretary David Lammy and all their advisers have known for a long time now that there was always a strong chance of a second term for Mr Trump.
The Independent revealed how even in opposition, Mr Lammy was spending time in the US wooing parts of the right of US politics and even cosying up to the Trump camp. He tried to do a speech at Heritage, the right-wing think tank behind the infamous Project 2025 manifesto. But even though he failed, other shadow ministers went for a meeting there.
Mr Lammy had said some distinctly disobliging things about Mr Trump when he was just a Labour MP after the 2016 US election, so he has had some way to go to make up lost ground. But it was noticeable that he defended Mr Trump over inflammatory comments on Nato, saying the former president was right to say Nato members should pay their way. He has also drawn close comparisons with himself and Mr Trump’s right-wing vice-presidential nominee JD Vance.
The reason that Sir Keir was keen on a meeting with Mr Trump on his recent trip to New York was because he knew that bridges needed to be built if the most important alliance in the West was to flourish. The meeting appeared to be very positive.
But the legal case brought by the Trump campaign over Labour’s help for Ms Harris may now derail some of the work which was carried out.
Ukraine
The biggest issue has been to try to “Trump-proof” support for Ukraine. It has been clear for some time that Mr Trump and the majority of the Republicans will not provide support and aid to Ukraine in the same way if at all. It seems likely that Mr Trump will try to cut a deal with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky.
So much of the work carried out over the last few months has been about getting funding for Ukraine fast-tracked and for Ukraine’s Nato application to be guaranteed. While Starmer has succeeded in 90 per cent of what he hoped there will still be doubts about whether it can be unpicked by Mr Trump.
In particular, a failure to give permission to use storm shadow missiles on targets in Russia could prove to be crucial.
Other issues
Sir Keir will be worried about what Mr Trump may do in terms of the Middle East. While the US under President Biden has supported Israel, Mr Trump’s rhetoric suggests he could go much further in helping Israel deal with Hamas – with potentially horrendous consequences in Gaza.
Added to that Mr Trump appears to have gone cold on his previous support for Taiwan, which could give China an opportunity to become more aggressive. While Taiwan is highly symbolic in terms of Western freedom, it is even more important regarding the production of semiconductors to make almost every appliance or car operate.
Finally, there will be a major issue regarding trade. The Democrats were never going to give the UK a trade deal, but Mr Trump might. On the other hand, the isolationist president could easily go the opposite direction and impose much higher tariffs.
Trump’s visit to Farage in Clacton
The final calculation for Sir Keir is on the impact a Trump presidency will have on UK politics and Europe.
The Independent revealed that there is a belief Mr Trump will visit Mr Farage’s Clacton constituency as a sign of support if he becomes president. Overall it will help boost rightwing politics in the UK, already in a perilous state after a summer of riots.
Over in Europe rightwing figures like Hungary’s Viktor Orban and France’s Marine Le Pen will also be hoping to get support from a Trump presidency.
Sir Keir knows that the UK and his government need to act as a moderating influence over the next four years if Mr Trump wins.
