The WNBA playoffs are here. This is when regular season records mean nothing, and wins mean everything. It’s buzzer beaters, emphatically blocked shots, “what did I just see?” moments and scoring so good you’ll need a pulse check.
For basketball heads everywhere, this is an out-of-body experience. The level of play is elevated, and so are the expectations.
Will the Lynx fly too close to the Sun? (See what I did there?) Will the Liberty crush the Aces’ chances of winning back-to-back titles?
Who wins? Who’s out?
These are your 2023 WNBA playoff predictions:
First round: Las Vegas Aces (1) vs. Chicago Sky (8)
Right out of the gate, the Chicago Sky have the most challenging matchup they could face. It’s picking your poison with the Las Vegas Aces, and nothing you could choose seems a relatively good choice. Despite having some serious hoopers on their squad, like Kahleah Copper or Courtney Williams, the Sky are no match for this Aces “super team.”
The “Point Gawd” Chelsea Gray will see that the Aces bring the ball movement and quick scoring from the dynamic Kelsey Plum, the scrappy Kiah Stokes, three-point specialist Jackie Young, and reigning MVP A’ja Wilson.
Prediction: Aces in 2
First round: Connecticut Sun (3) vs. Minnesota Lynx (6)
The Connecticut Sun have so much firepower it’s almost unbelievable. Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner, Natisha Hiedeman, Rebecca Allen, and Tiffany Hayes are built differently. Bonner is having a career year at 36 years old, and that seems unfair until you realize they also have Thomas, who leads the league in rebounds and total assists.
The Minnesota Lynx are no slouch. They are led by the brilliant Napheesa Collier and backed by Kayla “McBuckets” McBride. The Lynx will give the Sun everything they can handle, but in the end, it will be too much Thomas, who is playing at an MVP level.
Prediction: Sun in 3
First round: New York Liberty (2) vs Washington Mystics (7)
The Mystics don’t care about records or who is on the court. Despite missing Ariel Atkins, Shakira Austin, Elena Delle Donne, and Kristi Tolliver for numerous games this season, they don’t care about injuries. It’s next person up as the New York Liberty are on the menu.
The wildest thing about this matchup is that the Mystics opened and closed the regular season by beating the Liberty. (Their final win was particularly impressive because it came on a Brittney Sykes buzzer-beater that ended an eight-game winning streak and pushed the Liberty to the No. 2 seed.)
Now, the two teams face each other again for a chance at post-season glory. I’m picking the Liberty, the hottest team in the WNBA. They will roll.
Prediction: Liberty in 3
First Round: Dallas Wings (4) vs Atlanta Dream (5)
The Dallas Wings and the Atlanta Dream might be the two most similar teams in the league regarding tendencies. Both teams had some dominant wins this season, including 40-plus points games from All-Star Satou Sabally and All-Star Rhyne Howard, but also some head-scratching losses.
It’s fair to say that both teams underachieved but now have a chance to play their best basketball. Dallas swept Atlanta during the regular season, 3-0, but Atlanta finds a way to snag a game in on Dallas’s court, sending the series back home to seal the deal.
Prediction: Atlanta in 3
Semi-Finals: (1) Las Vegas Aces vs. (5) Atlanta Dream
There’s no way to say this nicely, but it has to be said: The Las Vegas Aces bullied the Dream this season. The Dream lost all three matchups and surrendered a blistering 53-point performance to A’Ja Wilson in August.
I think much of the same will happen in the playoffs. Atlanta won’t go down without a fight, especially since their bench is one of the best in the league, but the dream (pun intended) stops with Vegas.
Prediction: Aces in 3
Semi-Finals: New York Liberty (2) vs Connecticut Sun (3)
After the Liberty, the Sun are the next hottest team in the league. They racked up 27 wins this season, a franchise record, and firmly cemented themselves as a formidable force. Ultimately, this is a nightmare matchup defensively for the Liberty. Connecticut’s defensive rating was second in the WNBA only to the Aces, and they are playing much better basketball now than earlier this season when these two teams faced one another.
What will make the difference in this series? The Liberty find ways to exploit Connecticut defensively by stretching defenders out and forcing them to cover every inch of the court.
Prediction: Liberty in 5
Finals: Las Vegas Aces (1) vs. New York Liberty (2)
It’s been a heavyweight title bout every time these two teams play. The Liberty won the season series and beat the Aces in the Commissioner’s Cup, but they didn’t do it without taking a few black eyes home.
The starting lineups for both teams are widely talented (almost to the point where it’s sickening – seriously, how is your WHOLE starting lineup FULL of shooters?). However, the bench of the Liberty might just be what knocks the Aces off their thrown. Look for Kayla Thornton and guard Marine Johannès to help the Liberty win their first franchise title.
Prediction: Liberty in 4
