Spending on AI infrastructure now forms a significant part of U.S. GDP growth, and corporate capital expenditure (capex) would be negative without it, according to a recent research note from Pantheon Macroeconomics.
“We’ve got a situation where large sums of money are pouring into AI infrastructure, providing a meaningful boost to GDP,” Pantheon analyst Oliver Allen told Fortune recently.
Overall capex rose by 2.6% in Q4 2025, Allen wrote in a research note this morning. Within that, intellectual property and software spending (i.e., spending likely linked to AI) was up 7.4%, and computer and communications equipment was up 61%. But all other segments declined: “Investment in other equipment plunged by 17%, a decline that was worryingly broad-based,” he wrote.
