FOR some time now, the Newcastle Herald has been warning, in this space, of looming shortfalls in electricity supply as the big coal-fired generators are squeezed out of the market before sufficient renewable generation and - especially, grid-scale battery storage - can be installed as replacements.
Throughout this period, the various energy regulators, in parallel with the renewable industry, have dismissed such concerns, with promises that sufficient investment would arrive in time to avoid the sorts of brown-outs and blackouts that would result from a generation shortfall.
The giant offshore floating wind farm that Energy Minister Chris Bowen will launch in Newcastle today is one such development.
On paper, its eight gigawatt capacity makes it the equivalent of the Bayswater, Liddell, Eraring and Vales Point power stations combined.
But this is a project of such immense scale - with the technical challenges of deep-water tethering - that question marks must remain over its eventual construction.
In the meantime, the Australian Energy Market Operator - AEMO - has released an update to its August 2022 "statement of opportunities", warning of significant electricity supply shortages if the construction of various renewables projects falls behind the scheduled closures of the coal-fired plants.
AEMO has previously remained sanguine about prospective shortfalls, and the Herald interprets the report, and accompanying commentary by AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman, as showing greater concern than has previously been the case.
Mr Bowen, whose dissatisfaction with the Kurri Kurri gas turbine was a backdrop to the resignation of former Snowy Hydro CEO Paul Broad, acknowledged the irregular timing of the AEMO report, but said he was confident that new capacity would be built in time.
For this to happen, projects such as the giant Hunter offshore wind farm will need to proceed, and quickly.
Various proposals are in train, but all would require the installation of at least 100 floating turbines some 30 kilometres off the coast, with costs that could easily top $10 billion - an enormous undertaking by any measure.
Physically, an offshore wind farm would have a far greater visual presence than the PEP-11 gas project, but this is the scale of installation that will be needed around the world if we are to move beyond the era of coal and gas as our major energy sources.
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