WASHINGTON _ President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are largely waging their fall campaigns for 270 electoral votes through six main battleground states.
But as the race for the White House enters its final month, both parties are increasingly contesting two additional Republican-leaning states: Georgia and Ohio.
It's the latest indication of Trump's defensive posture, as the incumbent is forced to dedicate vast resources to terrain where he won comfortably in 2016.
"Biden is on offense and forcing Trump to defend states that are critical to any of his pathways to 270," said Meg Ansara, who served as Hillary Clinton's battleground state director in 2016. "Any dollar to defend a core state means less resources to battle in top-tier battlegrounds like Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."
Trump and his GOP allies spent more than $11 million in Georgia during the month of September _ more than double the amount his party devoted to Michigan in the same time frame _ according to a McClatchy analysis of data provided by Advertising Analytics, a company that tracks political ads. The total includes investments by the president's campaign and Preserve America, a late-charging super PAC funded primarily by GOP mega-donor Sheldon Adelson.
The Georgia total is also more than the combined amount the Trump campaign spent in Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nevada, three states it has hopes of flipping from the Democrats. So far, Trump has reserved just $831,000 on the Georgia airwaves in October, but that number is likely to increase.
What's more: Another pro-Trump super PAC, America First Action, announced it would make its first foray into Georgia next week, with a nearly $3 million television outlay through Election Day. Trump carried Georgia by 5 points in 2016.
And after spending just north of $1 million in Ohio in September, the Trump campaign has already reserved $9 million in ads there for October, a significant sum and an acknowledgment that the state the president won by 8 points in 2016 is now in danger of slipping back into the Democratic column.
That's currently a larger reservation than the campaign has planned for Arizona and Wisconsin. A Trump campaign official said the Ohio allocation was "booked months ago and hasn't been taken down yet," but declined to disclose whether it would.
Ad buys can be adjusted at any time because of strategic changes, but they offer the clearest sense of where campaigns see the race being the most competitive at a given moment.
One recent internal Democratic poll showed Biden with a lead of 5 points in Ohio, according to a source who has seen it, matching a public survey by Fox News and enticing the former vice president's campaign to reserve $4 million in ads between now and Election Day. The Biden campaign spent less than $2 million in the state last month.
Biden's broadcast TV advertising in Ohio began solely in the white working-class markets of Youngstown and Toledo, which are cheaper than the larger cities but also bleed slightly into southern Michigan and western Pennsylvania, as an added incentive. The campaign's newest buy expands into Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati.
"Who would have thunk it, that at this stage in the race, Trump would be fighting for a win in Ohio," said David Wilhelm, a Columbus resident who previously ran the Democratic National Committee and Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign. "In order for a Democratic candidate to win here, you need to do everything right. You need to motivate a strong urban vote. You need to make inroads among suburban voters, and you need to lose by less in rural parts of the state. Biden can do this _ it's not the Bill Clinton model, it's not the Obama model, it's a Biden model, and he can most assuredly win this state."
The Biden campaign still intends to allocate the bulk of its October ad budget to the six most engaged battleground states _ Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona. In total, the Biden campaign outspent the Trump campaign in those states by more than 2-to-1 in September.
But Biden's continued fundraising bounty _ he collected $31 million in the day after the debate alone _ could allow campaign leadership to invest more deeply in the ring of second-tier states that could produce a Democratic rout.
"(Jen) O'Malley Dillon is being extraordinarily disciplined right now," said a Democratic operative with knowledge of internal spending discussions, referring to Biden's campaign manager. "The campaign knows there are six states in which they are highly invested, but that doesn't mean they're not going to take a chance elsewhere."
Georgia, which is also hosting two competitive U.S. Senate races this year, looks to be one of those places. While the Biden campaign spent slightly more than $800,000 in Georgia in September, it has already reserved $4 million in ad time in October in the state, which no Democrat has won in a presidential race in 28 years.
The Trump campaign unveiled a new ad in the state on Thursday, featuring a Black couple that touts the president's business acumen and laments Biden's support for the 1994 crime bill.
A Quinnipiac University survey showing Biden with a 3-point lead over Trump in Georgia found Biden carrying the Black vote 89% to 7%. But a majority of those sampled also indicated Trump would do a better job handling economic issues.
Biden has not yet traveled to Georgia as the Democratic nominee and he only made his first trip to Ohio for this week's debate. A subsequent train tour made a single stop in eastern Ohio before going on to Pennsylvania, the most visited state during this fall's presidential campaign.
"He's abandoned the state. His first trip here was after the debate and it was a matter of convenience. We haven't even seen his wife or (Kamala) Harris. If they thought they could win Ohio, they'd be here, they'd be doing stuff," said Bob Paduchik, a longtime Ohio operative and senior adviser to the Trump campaign. "What they can't do is build a turnout operation in 33 days. The ground game matters."
But whereas Trump needs Ohio's 18 electoral votes for reelection, Biden has pathways to victory without it, including by recapturing Michigan.
Of all the battlegrounds, Republicans have pulled back most substantially in Michigan, where Trump made just a single visit in September. With polls showing Biden averaging a lead of 7 points, the campaign spent just $5 million there last month, compared to Biden's $15 million. No Republican super PAC is planning any expenditures there for the duration of the campaign.
Taking no chances, the Biden campaign still has $8 million in Michigan advertising reservations for October and the candidate will return for his second visit to the state on Friday with a trip to Grand Rapids, which sits in a county that Trump narrowly carried in 2016.
