Four years ago, progressives in the crucial battleground state of Wisconsin were energized about the presidential race, feeling ready and eager to elect Joe Biden and end four years of Donald Trump’s chaotic leadership.
This year, the nominees for president remain the same, but much has changed. Before Biden’s damaging debate performance, leaders of progressive groups were already combating disillusionment and disengagement among many of their supporters, who sharply criticized the president’s response to the war in Gaza. Now, with days left before Republicans arrive in Milwaukee to nominate Trump for the third time, the groups’ leaders are confronting a fractured Democratic party wrestling with the question of whether to replace their presumptive nominee.
Despite the immense challenges ahead, progressive organizers are determined to convince voters of the dire stakes of this election and turn out a winning coalition in November. They believe Trump’s re-election poses an existential threat to American democracy, while recognizing that Biden needs to do a better job of showing voters how he will use his second term to improve their lives.
Wisconsin progressives have planned counter-programming to the Republican convention, with a number of groups participating in a march on the convention scheduled for Monday. But they have also been working for months to prepare for all of the November elections, not limited to the presidential race.
They have little margin for error. In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by just 0.6 points, or roughly 20,000 votes out of the 3.3m cast, and he appears to be in a much more perilous position today. An AARP poll conducted in the days after the debate showed Biden trailing Trump by six points in Wisconsin.
“We’re in a very tough predicament,” said William Walter, executive director of the progressive group Our Wisconsin Revolution. “The progressive left recognizes that stopping Donald Trump at all costs is imperative. But we want the Democratic party to help us in in our goals because they are aligned.”
Early warning signs
When the state held its presidential primaries in April, prominent progressive leaders encouraged primary voters to cast a ballot for “uninstructed” as a means of protesting Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza, an effort inspired by the similar Listen to Michigan campaign. Although Biden won the Wisconsin Democratic primary with 89% of the vote, nearly 50,000 voters – more than twice the president’s margin of victory in 2020 – voted uninstructed.
The political arm of Voces de la Frontera, an immigrant and workers’ rights group, was among those that endorsed the uninstructed campaign. Christine Neumann-Ortiz, executive director of Voces de la Frontera, described the campaign as an effective mechanism to send a message to the White House.
“We were simply a conduit to that message that people who were key to defeating Trump in 2020, this is how they’re feeling,” Neumann-Ortiz said. “They want to see something done.”
The protest vote in Wisconsin – as well as other states like Michigan and Minnesota – was one of the early warning signs of Biden’s struggles to unite and energize his party. Those vulnerabilities have now taken center stage in the aftermath of the debate.
“In 2020, with frankly the horrors of the Trump presidency still fresh in people’s minds, I think people were fired up,” said Emily Park, co-executive director of the climate advocacy group 350 Wisconsin Action. “Climate activism, racial justice activism, all sorts of progressive causes had been sort of newly reinvigorated. So I think that brought a huge sense of energy to the 2020 election. And this year, I think people are just not inspired.”
Angela Lang, executive director of the Milwaukee-based group Black Leaders Organizing for Communities (Bloc), noted that many of voters’ top concerns remain unchanged since 2020. But regarding the cost of living, voters’ concerns have only intensified, as US prices have increased by roughly 20% since 2019. The rate of inflation has slowed significantly in recent months, as the 12-month consumer price index now stands at 3%, but many are not yet feeling the difference.
“Things are expensive. People are still struggling despite the job numbers and things like that. They don’t see themselves reflected in those numbers,” Lang said. “When folks are often told this is the most important election of your lifetime over and over and over, and they’re not necessarily seeing the tangible changes in their lifetime, people start to get a little bit frustrated by that and start to wonder, ‘Do I continue to show up?’”
That disillusionment could have ramifications far beyond the presidential race. Wisconsin is home to one of the most competitive Senate elections this year, as incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin fights to hold on to her seat, and the Republican representative Derrick Van Orden faces a competitive race in the third congressional district. Wisconsinites will also have the opportunity to elect state legislators with a new set of maps that give Democrats their first real opportunity in more than a decade to take control of a chamber.
“If people are so disillusioned that they’re just not going to show up to the polls in November at all, then we lose our chance to make serious progress in our state legislature, which could mean critical things for the state of Wisconsin on all sorts of issues,” Park said. “It’s not just about the White House.”
Democracy and bodily autonomy on the ballot
Despite voters’ apparent lack of enthusiasm, their thoughts and fears about a second Trump term have grown more specific since 2020. As he has knocked on voters’ doors this year, Walter, who served as a delegate for Bernie Sanders in 2020, has heard more people express concern about the continuation of democracy if Trump wins the election.
He pointed to recent comments from Kevin Roberts, president of the rightwing Heritage Foundation, to underscore the threat. Roberts told a radio host last week: “We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.”
Walter said: “They’re making it abundantly clear what their goals are for a second administration, and it’s terrifying. And a lot of people, I think, really are starting to recognize that.”
Abortion access has also moved to the top of many voters’ priority lists. The race between Biden and Trump represents the first presidential election since Roe v Wade was overturned in 2022, and Democrats predict that Republicans will enact a national abortion ban if they have the opportunity.
“That’s one thing that I hear quite often is, quite literally, democracy and bodily autonomy are on the ballot,” Walter said.
Those high stakes have only increased the pressure on Biden since his poor debate performance, and progressive leaders in Wisconsin are conflicted about how to move forward. Some prominent progressive lawmakers, including representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar, have said Democrats need to stick with Biden and focus on beating Trump, but doubts linger.
Progressive leaders in Wisconsin emphasized that Biden has notched some important legislative wins, including the bipartisan infrastructure law and the Inflation Reduction Act, but they expressed varying opinions on whether the president should continue his campaign.
“My feeling is that that conversation is only going to stop at the [Democratic] convention. And it is true that we do have primary elections, and people voted for Biden as the candidate,” Neumann-Ortiz said. “Ultimately, in this election, the conversation needs to be about, how can we build a strong, diverse, united front against the threat of a candidate that is promising dictatorship on day one?”
Even as Democrats continue to squabble over Biden’s future, Wisconsin groups like Voces de la Frontera and Bloc remain focused on communicating the danger of Trump’s potential return to voters.
“I think at the end of the day, our community, we know what’s at stake,” Lang said. “Folks end up coming around [in] September, October, and that’s usually when they start to get plugged in and engaged. I will caution, though, that if we’re still having the same questions and the same conversations around that time, I think it’s a little bit more of a red flag.”
Walter warned that, if Biden chooses to continue on and loses to Trump in November, his defeat will become legacy-defining.
“We won’t be able to talk about the Inflation Reduction Act. We won’t be able to talk about his massive labor wins,” Walter said.
“Instead, the narrative in every history book will be on the last six months before the election – how we saw that he wasn’t as sharp as he may have been five years ago, that he didn’t have what it takes to beat Donald Trump. And because of that, we lost the American experiment.”
