As always, making predictions—especially about the future—is a proceed-at-your-own-risk endeavor. But how do you pick against Novak Djokovic to win the Wimbledon 2023 men’s bracket?
Speaking of 23, that’s how many majors Djokovic has won. The rest of the field? Fewer than 10 combined. Djokovic hasn’t lost at Wimbledon since 2017, and if he does take the title, he’ll match Roger Federer’s record. Additionally, it’s been more than a year since he lost at a major. Otherwise, the field is wide open. But there are 127 other players and 127 matches to be played. So here goes:
The top 16:
1. Carlos Alcaraz
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By dint of the ranking—and the absence of points conferred on Djokovic at Wimbledon 2022—he is the top seed. And he’s 1A. We wondered how he would respond after the deflation at Roland Garros, the first real dip after such a successful IPO. How long of a tail would that setback have? But then he won Queens.
2. Novak Djokovic
Now that we have summoned the chaplain and applied last rites to the GOAT debate, the next question: how many majors, beyond 23, can this guy win? An eighth Wimbledon seems exceedingly likely, especially given a draw free of many traps. Right now he’s at the center, and everyone else is in the periphery.
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3. Daniil Medvedev
An absentee last year, it will be interesting to see how he responds to the themes and questions of geopolitics. (Aside: For such a candid and expressive figure, he sure has stuck closely to his Putin talking points.) You’d think the flat, slappy strokes would translate well to grass. But in only four appearances, he’s never been beyond the fourth round.
4. Casper Ruud
After a rough start to 2023, the Norseman turned it on at Roland Garros, reaching his third major final in 12 months. Then he went back on vacation. And he has one career win at Wimbledon, which won’t offset the bonus points he gets for liking Darren Aronofsky.
5. Stefanos Tsitsipas
He has a girlfriend now. Maybe you heard that. Tsitsipas remains at a bit of a crossroads. He’s a fine player who’s already reached a major final in 2022. There is also a stasis here. Is he getting better? It didn’t seem that way in Paris, where he was tuned by Alcaraz. He played three grass events in the lead-in, won one match.
6. Holger Rune
A player in rapid ascent. And his out-Djokovic Djokovic win (albeit on the clay in Rome) is aging well. He just left his teenage years but has settled into the role of tennis comic book villain. Casting seems more wishful thinking (agro!) than accurate reflection. And here’s what lost in the personality assessment: His tennis is so solid. He’s never won a match at Wimbledon. He’s likely to do so in 2023. But playing up to his seeding seems like an awfully big ask.
7. Andrey Rublev
Can we discuss? Three of the top seven men have surnames starting with Ru. Anyway, this will sound harsher than intended, but there’s an element of counterfeit here. A top-flight player, week-in, week-out with feats that include winning Monte Carlo with raw power. But has yet to show he has the mental and physical durability to get it done in the best-of-five events.
8. Taylor Fritz
The highest-ranked American looks to continue achieving. His game has matured. His disposition has matured. He’s a pro’s pro whose ascent has been steady. Now he needs to put a meaningful run at a major on the board.
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9. Jannik Sinner
Trying to snap a regrettable streak. Last four defeats in majors have been in five-setters. So much to like. But does he have the disposition to say, “I will crawl through mud and eat maggots, if need be. But I am not losing today”? Unclear.
10. Frances Tiafoe
Breaches the perimeter of the top 10 after winning the Stuttgart title. Before the Big Three, tennis salonists would often talk about the kind of player who can get hot for seven matches. Tiafoe fits—embodies?—this archetype. (Especially with a draw like the one he got.)
11. Felix Auger-Aliassime
A bit of a retreat so far this year, FA-A struggling to be cleared for takeoff. Four titles in 2022. Zero so far in ’23. Has the game to be a contender on most surfaces, grass included. But—be it physical, mental or both—there’s a windshield in need of defogging.
12. Cam Norrie
A semifinalist last year. (And you root for any player who rides his bike to events.) Doesn’t likely have the weaponry to win seven matches. But does have the game (and competitive instincts) to make life difficult for four or five opponents.
13. Borna Coric
A sinuous career and a sinuous year. Won Cincy last fall and then faded. Slow start to 2023, and then reaches Madrid semis. Failed to win a set in two grass tune-ups.
14. Lorenzo Musetti
If this is the year we get an unsung champion, you could make a worse pick. Strong year—including a win over Djokovic—has put him in the top 20. And he’s only a year older than Alcaraz. Bonus point for the sweeping one-hander. Showed surprising grass chops in Stuttgart and Queens.
15. Alex de Minaur
Queens finalist has the footwork, if not brute power, for grass. Though he has played 23 majors in his career, he’s reached only one quarterfinal.
16. Tommy Paul
Since reaching the semis in Australia, it’s been quiet at the House of Paul. An elite athlete. His serve can let him down when matches tighten.
A look at some lower seeds:
17. Hubert Hurkacz
Nearing that Rublevian phase—lovely guy, lovely serve, episodically terrific player. Still unclear whether he has the stuff of a major winner. Won Miami in 2021 and remains (and, likely, always will remain) the last player to beat Federer at Wimbledon. But not a lot of engagement lately.
18. Alexander Zverev
Get this: still looking for his first top-eight win at a major. Coming off his run to the Roland Garros semis, he has to be pleased about his comeback.
23. Sebastian Korda
Would be among our top five picks.
24. Alexander Bublik
Eastern European Nick Kyrgios. Not only is he a top-25 player—“wait, Bublik is the 24th seed,” says a Hall of Famer who will go nameless—but his booming game is well suited for the surface.
27. Denis Shapovalov
Erratic Canadian, a semifinalist in 2021, can be his own worst enemy.
28. Tallon Griekspoor
Looking for a dark horse? You could do a lot worse.
31. Nick Kyrgios
A finalist last year, tennis’s punk rock figure is back. Consider yourself warned.
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32. Ben Shelton
That lefty game plus grass = intrigue. Serious deep run potential.
Dark-horse corral
Matteo Berrettini: The Netflix attention has faded; his bad injury luck has not. Still that forehand alone ought to be good for some wins from a former finalist.
Maxime Cressy: Gone from an easy-to-root-for sideshow to a credible and creditable dangerous floater.
Emil Ruusuvuori: Perhaps the best player you’ve never seen in action.
Andy Murray: You know the rules. All former No. 1 players (and former champions) merit mention. Especially if they have been winning scads of matches coming in and are back in the top 40.
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Stan Wawrinka: The dream of the career slam is alive!
Jiri Lehecka: A revelation in Australia, he’s back on a preferred surface.
Milos Raonic: It’s been a minute. But he’s back and is a former finalist.
Chris Eubanks: That serve on grass?
Jack Draper: Tough time staying healthy, but so much game.
John Isner: Less a factor than acknowledgment that this is likely his final Wimbledon.
First-round matches to watch (surprisingly few, which could be a disguised blessing):
- Tsitsipas vs. Dominic Thiem: If Thiem were a smidge better on grass—though struggling as he is—you might be inclined to call an upset.
- Bublik vs. Mackie McDonald: If contrasts (styles, physiques, temperament) are your thing.
- Laurent Lokoli vs. Ruud: Flashy Frenchmen (aren’t they all?) pose a potential danger for the No. 4 seed.
First-round upset:
Nothing springs to mind, but watch for Medvedev against veteran lefty Adrian Mannarino in Round 2.
Doubles winners:
Ivan Dodig and Austin Krajicek. Ride the hot hand, and pick the Roland Garros champs.
Semis:
- Alcaraz d. Korda
- Djokovic d. Fritz
