It was more of the same to start the new week as the Energies sector exploded higher, reaching price levels not seen since 2022.
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Meanwhile, US stock index futures continued to come under pressure after the Indexes tumbled last week on the growing fear of inflation.
Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. The rest of the commodities complex was mostly higher, except for Metals, where key markets are taking a short-term breather.
Energies: It was about this time of year four years ago. While traveling around the US Midwest and Plains, particularly across what are known as Red States, when stopping for gas it was common to see stickers of a smiling then-US President Joe Biden pointing up, usually to higher gas prices at the pump with a statement balloon reading, “I did that”. This was in reference to the spike in Energies pries as a result of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, with President Biden leading the western world in sanctioning Vlad the Invader. In early March 2022 the spot-month WTI crude oil contract spiked to $130.50 before later establishing a secondary peak near $124 in mid-June, then heading lower. Early in Sunday’s overnight session, March 8, 2026, the spot-month WTI contract (CLJ26) hit a high near $119.50. Meanwhile, spot distillates (diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.) (HOJ26) is showing an overnight peak above $4.47 with RBOB gasoline (RBJ26) up at $3.22, both levels not seen in those same four years. Will we see stickers popping up at gas pumps of the current US president after he started a “war” in Iran this month? I would be shocked if we did.
Equities: US stock index futures were under pressure again overnight with contracts tied to the three major markets showing consistent losses of about 1.1%. Recall the Indexes closed lower last Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) down 453.19 (0.95%), the S&P 500 ($INX) off 90.69 (1.33%), and the Nasdaq ($NASX) finishing 361.31 (1.59%) lower for the day. These losses added to what was seen throughout the week with the Dow finishing the first week of March 1,476.37 (3.0%) in the red, the S&P 500 138.86 (2.0%) lower, and Nasdaq down 280.53 (1.2%). Asian markets were lower across the board overnight while European markets were red Monday as well, both again sparking another round of Chicken or the Egg Debate. Is this the beginning of a long-term break in US stocks? Global stocks? Or simply another hiccup similar to what was seen from December 2024 through April 2025? Time will tell. The bottom line is the combination of market activity we are seeing: Weaker US stock indexes, stronger US dollar, stronger commodities; indicates we are seeing F.O.I.L. (Fear Of Inflation Long-term). The Fed fund futures forward curve is showing the next FOMC rate cut has likely been pushed back to the September meeting due to increased inflation fears.
Metals: The sector was also under pressure with April gold (GCJ26) down $62 (1.2%) at this writing while May silver (SIK26) slid as much as $4.671 (5.5%) overnight. If I were to use the word “surprising” for anything in the commodity complex, it might be here. Do I think the uptrend is over in gold? As I told my friends at Kitco News last Friday< “There will be selloffs, some incredibly wide-reaching, but it doesn’t change the fact the market is in a long-term uptrend. The occasional breaks are created by gold (and silver) running out of buy orders short-term. But new interest from global central banks and long-term investors is eventually uncovered. The question now is who the US president decides to bomb next, keeping in mind crude oil seems to be at the heart of the military activity (Venezuela, Iran).” The bottom line is the global political and economic situations continue to be destabilized, and gold will continue to be the safe-haven market.
Ag: As expected, the Grains sector stormed higher overnight through early Monday morning. The May corn issue (ZCK26) gained as much as 15.5 cents on trade volume of nearly 150,000 contracts. Last Friday’s Commitments of Traders report (legacy, futures only) showed the noncommercial net-long futures position grew by 81,230 contracts as of Tuesday, March 3, with the May issue adding as much as 29.5 cents from last Tuesday’s settlement through the latest overnight high. All while the carry in the May-July futures spread hit a new lifetime strong point of 11.5 cents Monday morning. It was a similar story in the Oilseeds sub-sector with May soybeans (ZSK26) rallying as much as 33.0 cents on trade volume of 73,000 contracts. Since last Tuesday’s close the May issue has gained as much as 63.25 cents indicating last fall’s peak noncommercial net-long futures position of 254,090 contracts could be challenged. The latest Commitments of Traders report put this position at 221,900 contracts. The wheat sub-sector was also higher to start the week with May SRW (ZWK26) adding as much as 25.0 cents overnight. If Watson switches to a net-long futures position in SRW wheat, it would be the first time since the week of October 4, 2022 funds were net-long all three wheat markets at the same time. For the record, May sugar (SBK26) rallied as much as 0.36 cent (2.5%) after posting a new 4-week high late last week.
