Today (October 19) marks the day when the proposed second Scottish referendum for independence was supposed to take place last year.
However, the Supreme Court ruled that Scotland couldn't hold another referendum without Westminster approval, essentially blocking then-First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's proposal for a second referendum, following on from the close vote in 2018, when 55 per cent voted against independence.
Sturgeon maintained that “Scottish democracy will not be denied", saying: “Today’s ruling blocks one route to Scotland’s voice being heard on independence – but, in a democracy, our voice cannot and will not be silenced.”
Since Sturgeon's resignation on March 28, 2023, she is no longer head of the Scottish National Party (SNP).
The new First Minister is now Humza Yousaf, but he still holds the same goals for Scottish independence as his predecessor.
What are Humza Yousaf’s plans?
In a manifesto set out in September, Yousaf promised to seek independence negotiations with the UK Government if his party wins the most seats in Scotland at the next general election.
He signed a motion backing that strategy which was voted in favour of at the party's conference in October.
It proposes making the first line of the manifesto: "Vote SNP for Scotland to become an independent country".
Will there be another referendum?
While the SNP has clearly made independence a priority, there is still what Yousaf referred to as the "Westminster roadblock".
"If they’re denying us a referendum, let’s use the next general election to put independence front and centre," the First Minister continued in a speech at the SNP conference.
Yousaf and his SNP colleagues maintain that many of the major problems faced by the Scottish people, including the cost-of-living crisis, are inextricably linked to independence.
However, Downing Street has consistently refused to countenance a referendum or negotiations on independence.
That means that, as laid out in the SNP's manifesto, the only realistic chance for a second referendum would be if the SNP won a majority in the next general election, scheduled for 2024.
Specifically, Yousaf argues that if the SNP wins the most seats in Scotland, that would be sufficient to trigger negotiations between the Scottish and UK governments "to give democratic effect to Scotland becoming an independent country".
Here, "democratic effect" could mean a number of actions, from asking for another referendum to the transfer of powers to Holyrood so that MSPs could decide if and when a second referendum happens.
When might it take place?
If all of this comes to pass, it seems unlikely that a second Scottish referendum could take place before the end of 2024.
It all hinges on the results of the general election, the strength of the SNP in Scotland, and whether that possible majority is enough to win decision-making power over the referendum from Westminster.
