As the UK begins to see some spring sunshine, many are asking if we can expect a heatwave this summer...
It seems like just yesterday we were all wondering if it will snow in the UK, but now that spring has arrived and temperatures are slowly starting to rise, thoughts have turned to when we can expect warmer weather.
Last year saw record temperatures in the UK, with some areas experiencing highs of 40C in what became a sweltering summer - and the warmest on record. Many of us were frantically looking for ways to keep the house cool and wondering if you should keep windows closed in hot weather - but it seems those struggles have been forgotten, as now everyone's wondering when will it get warmer in the UK and will there be a heatwave in 2023?
Will there be a heatwave in the UK in 2023?
Forecasts suggest that 2023 could see heatwave in the UK, with the return of the 'El Niño' climate phenomenon making it likely that the world will exceed 1.5C of warming.
The hottest year in recorded history, 2016, was also driven by a major El Niño - which is a term used to describe the warming of sea surface temperature that occurs every few years, usually in the Pacific.
When is the next heatwave in the UK?
Weather forecasters have suggested that the UK will experience a 'mini' heatwave starting on 17 April. The hottest temperature of 2023 so far was recorded on Monday 17 April in Scotland, with a high of 20.2C was recorded just after 12pm in Kinlochewe in the Scottish Highlands.
Met Office meteorologist Kathryn Chalk said the highest temperatures of the week will probably be recorded on Monday and Tuesday, before temperatures cool to a range from about 17C to 13C over the second half of this week, with the coolest conditions expected along the eastern coast.
Meanwhile, the long-range forecast for the period of 22 April until 1 May says there will be "breezier conditions here compared to previous days." They weather service adds, "After a spell of below average temperatures early in this period, temperatures are most likely to return back to around average during the latter part of April."
Jim Dale from British Weather Services has said of the possibility of warmer weather, "We do get heatwaves in April, it does happen. It'll be a soft heatwave for the second half of April, it could get somewhere in the mid-20s pushing to May, in that general direction."
Temperatures have just reached at least 20°C for the first time this year 🌡️ The last time 20°C was recorded in the UK was 13th November 2022 pic.twitter.com/9nsyx97TXWApril 17, 2023
However, the Met Office explains that in order for a weather event to be an official heatwave, the location must record "a period of at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold." In the UK, these thresholds vary by county.
Where is there going to be a heatwave in the UK?
The highest temperature recorded over the last few days was in Kinlochewe in the Scottish Highlands. Meanwhile, a high of 18C was recorded in Greater London on Monday, with 14C recorded in Cardiff and 15C in Belfast.
Over the next few days, Met Office weather maps predict that the hottest temperatures will be recorded in Cardiff and Plymouth, which will see highs of 14C on Wednesday 19 April.
Meanwhile, Met Office spokesman Stephen Dixon told the Mail Online the warmest temperatures are likely to be in eastern and some northern regions sheltered by high ground, where it could reach the "high teens and possibly low 20s Celsius."
Will it be a hot summer in the UK in 2023?
The Met Office has predicted that 2023 will be hotter than 2022, and one of the warmest years on record. Temperatures are predicted to rise by between 1.08C and 1.32C, which will mark the 10th year in a row that global temperatures will reach at least 1C above average.
This has been attributed to both climate change and the ending of the weather pattern known as La Niña, after three years of cooler-than-average sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean causing lowered average global temperatures.
In addition, Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden told the Daily Star that an African Plume heading towards the UK will see temperatures as high as 35C in the UK this summer. He said the heatwave is expected to arrive in late August, while two earlier heatwaves - one in early June and the second in mid-July - are likely to push the mercury into the low to mid 30s.
However, Madden added that temperatures won't be quite as high as the scorching summer of 2022. He said: "We are not expecting anything of a similar nature this time around in terms of record heat or temperatures hitting the 40C mark."
"However, the peak of these heat surges in June and July could see maximum temperatures ranging in the low to mid 30s, and the late summer/August heatwave could sign off summer 2023 with temperatures ranging a notch or two higher than this as a potentially 'high confidence' African plume bathes our shores with some extensive late summer heat and sunshine for many parts of the country."
In bad news for sunbathers, it is also expected these periods will be muggy, humid and cloudy, without "any lengthy periods of sunshine".
How hot are temperatures predicted to get in the UK?
It has been suggested that El Niño could see global warming reach the crucial barrier of a 1.5C rise. However, it's too early to know just yet what the effects of El Niño will be.
Last summer, the UK had one of its hottest summers on record, with temperatures exceeding 40C for the first time. The Met Office issued a red weather warning for extreme heat, and drought was officially declared in some areas of the country.
Data from the Met Offices UK climate averages shows that from the period of 1991 to 2020 the average maximum temperature in the UK in April is 12.03°C, while the average minimum temperature is 3.75°C.
Peak temperatures in the UK are recorded in August, when the average maximum temperature is 19.31°C, with the average minimum temperature recorded as 10.97°C.
Average temperatures in the UK in August by country:
- England - Maximum 20.85°C, minimum 11.77°C
- Scotland - Maximum 16.96°C, minimum 2.789.61
- Wales - Maximum 18.99°C, minimum 11.22°C
- Northern Ireland - Maximum 18.31°C, minimum 10.67°C
Related features:
- How to get to sleep in the heat
- How hot does it have to be for schools to close?
- Heat exhaustion symptoms and how to treat them
- How to cool a baby down in hot weather
- When is it too hot to walk your dog?
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