We were all having a lovely morning over at For The Win just enjoying some coffee while laughing at Tom Brady and mocking the Pittsburgh Steelers’ continued use of Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback.
Then Shams Charania had to go blow it all up for us.
According to the reporter for The Athletic and Stadium, the NBA and players association are deep into talks on a new collective bargaining agreement that would, among other things, lower the draft eligibility age from 19 years old back to 18—effectively ending the one-and-done era of college basketball.
Our Slack channel did not handle this news well. Battle lines were drawn between those (Andy Nesbitt) who thought this meant the end of NCAA basketball as we know it and others who thought the impact wouldn’t feel as extreme as it sounds.
Sources: NBA and NBPA in serious talks on new items for potential Collective Bargaining Agreement:
– Draft age eligibility from 19 to 18, return of high school-to-NBA
– Measure that allows players citing mental health similar to physical injuryMore: https://t.co/ecABKkat2H
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) September 19, 2022
Below is a transcript of the resulting chaos, edited for clarity and a bit of profanity.
The following conversation took place between 11:09 a.m. ET and 11:30 a.m. ET
Blake Schuster: Oh s***
Charles Curtis: it’s happppppppppppppening. that mental health thing is great
Caroline Darney: Oh hell yes let’s gooooo
Blake: Bronny James skipping college?
Bryan Kalbrosky: FWIW, Bronny James is expected to take the college route.
Andy Nesbitt: RIP, college hoops. it was a good run!
Caroline: WE’LL BE FINE, ANDY (I think like maybe 2 guys if that go a year)
Bryan: I think it will be significantly more than that.
Caroline: That get drafted???
Charles: You’ve got overseas, G League, 18 year-olds getting drafted
Caroline: I still think college will be the best option for most of them. Especially with NIL. Overseas and G league exist now.
Charles: But they’ll make A LOT more in NBA
Bryan: People are going to overseas, G league and Elite because they cant go to the NBA.
Andy: College hoops will quickly be like old rotary phones on your kitchen wall
Charles: College hoops may still be fine? I dunno. Like the star power may go down but still.
Andy: I’d argue college hoops has been far from fine for years
Blake: Ochai Agbaji, Frank Mason and Devonte Graham all had like non-existent recruitments until Bill Self found them. Kansas probably just gonna win even more titles now.
Caroline: College hoops are gonna be fine
Andy: They’ll still have March, but yeah, rip to the rest!
Blake: Big thing for college basketball this time around is that the NCAA allows players to go to the combine/declare for the draft and get feedback. So it’s not like these kids HAVE to commit to the draft until they know for sure they’re gonna be selected.
Bryan: I mean four years players still exist. I loved Payton Pritchard at Oregon. Blake loved all of myriad of Kansas players who did four years in Lawrence then did nothing in the NBA
Blake: They all got rings at KU. It’s not our fault Sacramento kept drafting them. I really don’t think we’re gonna see a noticeable drop-off in college. Not with NIL, etc. This is only gonna help the top 0.5 percent of players.
Caroline: Like 2-4 guys have gone pro (g-league/overseas) per year in the last….5 seasons? … I’m not super concerned. You don’t have Zion and Cade maybe?
Prince J. Grimes: College hoops might be better off IMO. players stay, teams build an identity
Caroline: Yeah per year in the Top 25. I’m with Prince. This could help college. More continuity.
Blake: I think the change in CBB is marginal at best. I don’t know if it helps or hurts.
Caroline: I think marginal, potential to help. NIL counters any big hurt IMO.
Bryan: It is very likely, right now, that the first four picks in the 2023 NBA Draft are not college players. Victor and Scoot and Thompson twins all have more stock than anyone in college.
Caroline: Honestly isn’t that another plug for college you don’t have to go to the four worst teams (mostly sarcastic). Stay in college two years, get to avoid the Kings.
Andy: Stay in college two years get to avoid the NBA. If you’re in college for over two years you’re looking at a pro career overseas.
Caroline: That’s patently false but ok.
Andy: I think it’s mostly true but i have no stats anywhere near me.
Blake: Yeah, no one even knows what happened to that Marcus Smart guy after he left Oklahoma State.
Andy: Exactly, that’s why I said mostly!
Caroline: Or Malcom Brogdon where has he been since 2016?
Prince: On the injured list.
Christian D’Andrea: dead.
Caroline: SIR HE WAS ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Blake (mostly to Andy, a Celtics fan): Robert Williams III, Grant Williams both multi-year college guys, too.
Caroline: We just re-adjust talent level expectations for college. you don’t have a Zion, but that doesn’t bother me.
Andy: As a casual fan not having a Zion is pretty big to me!
Bryan: I mean college is obviously still a viable path lol. there are tons of players who make it to the NBA after playing several years in school.
Blake: Ja Morant. Two year guy at Murray State. No one has ever heard of him since.
Charles: As a fellow casual, I will not watch college til March.
Caroline: As a die-hard college fan, I’m not too worried. (I am tired of catering NCAA to casual fans, but that’s another argument for another day and has been a long standing gripe of mine)
Andy: I’ll start watching around the Sweet 16, unless some Cinderellas get through then I’ll wait or Final Four.
Christian: Andy’s gonna wake up with slashed tires next week and there’s gonna be a litany of Top Gun-related clues as to who did it.
Closing Arguments
After a cooling down period, all parties involved agreed to give a final thought.
Blake: Yeah, this won’t impact college basketball as much as a casual (ahem, Andy) fan might think. The big picture take here is that this gets more players bigger paydays sooner, and I’m all for that. College sports has much larger issues right now, anyways. This is fine. The best stories are always the under-recruited guys who become stars and they’ll have more of the stage to themselves now. The people who don’t watch until March still aren’t going to watch until March and it’s doubtful they notice any difference.
Charles: I’m a college basketball casual at best, who watches starting in … March. But I don’t foresee college hoops taking a huge hit. There will always be the tourney, there will always be players who don’t go to the NBA who turn into budding prospects in college, whether it’s first year or as seniors, and there will always be Duke players to hate on even if Coach K isn’t manning the bench.
Prince: Whether or not players going straight to the pros hurts the college game depends on what lens you’re viewing it through. Is it possible certain regular season games that would’ve featured the Zion Williamsons of the world suffer from poorer television ratings? Potentially. A casual like myself won’t pretend to have wanted to watch many Oklahoma games before Trae Young was going scorched Earth. But then again, the days of teams sticking together for longer than a year has a charm to it. I think the familiarity built through continuity helps, not hurts, college basketball in the long run. Rivalries become more intense, conference games are more interesting and title games mean a little more. So I lean to the side of high schoolers going straight to the pros not hurting the college hoops.
Andy: College basketball has been losing casual fans for many years now and the more great players that skip it entirely will only lead to more fans tuning out until March rolls around and they realize they barely know anything about the teams they’re picking in their NCAA pools. I do miss the good ol’ days of college hoops, though!
Bryan: There will always be college basketball super fans, and this changes nothing for them. But for the more casual observer, this does definitely hurt college basketball. I’m most interested in how this impacts the players. I’m all for anything that can help these guys have the best possible path to long-term success, both on the court and also financially. I like the idea of getting these top prospects on guaranteed NBA contracts earlier in the process. However, because many of them won’t be able to make an immediate impact in the NBA, the league will need an even stronger G League program in which each team has a one-to-one minor league affiliate to foster that development. I’m looking at you, Portland and Phoenix.
Christian: Why are we pretending like this is still traditional college basketball or that this makes a significant change? The landscape has changed. Instant transfer options are available. Prospects can choose the G League or go overseas or take advantage of some sweet booster cash with an NIL deal if they don’t think a spot in the first round of the draft is forthcoming.This will only really affect the blue bloods who dominate the recruiting rankings each year. If you’re rooting for Vanderbilt or Providence this is going to cost you, what, maybe one recruit per decade? Meanwhile, it’ll make the Kentuckys and Villanovas a little weaker (or, perhaps, just give them more leverage to recruit the star players who’ll stick around for 3-4 years instead of the one-and-done guys who mess up your cohesion to the point where you lose to St. Peter’s in the first round, who’s to say?). This feels like another step toward parity from a sport that thrives from it. That won’t make college basketball worse. Stars will shine even if a few five-star recruits don’t show up. We’ll still get our Doug Ederts and Kevin Pittsnogles.
Caroline: My esteemed colleagues have hit a lot of the big points here already, but I’m 100% for any set up that benefits the players finding the best fit, and I think this does that. In quick perusal over the last four NBA drafts, only 2-4 players were picked in the first round went the G-League or European route (for players heavily recruited by NCAA programs). Granted, the landscape in college athletics has changed dramatically over the past few seasons what with NIL, transfer portal, and a whole pandemic. Still, I don’t see this being a huge impact. I’ll miss seeing a Zion Williamson or Trae Young playing in fun games on the college level, but only one player drafted in the top-5 in the last five seasons actually won an NCAA title (redshirt sophomore De’Andre Hunter, who spent three years at Virginia). There will still be a huge benefit for players to choose the NCAA route, but overall, I think this is pretty good for most parties (namely, again, the actual players)
