For almost as long as there has been a parliament in Cardiff Bay, discussions have been ongoing about whether the number of Senedd members should be made bigger. In recent weeks we've seen the Labour and Plaid groups in the Senedd publish plans for how they want that enlarged Senedd to look.
The two groups have enough support to get it through the Senedd. But that's not the only obstacle the plans face. This weekend, Labour members and unions affiliated to the party have to have their say and they will do that this weekend at a special event, known as a recall conference where a vote will be held.
The two parties' joint plan is to enlarge the Senedd to 96 members from the current 60. The would be elected using closed proportional lists (meaning you vote for the party rather than candidate) with integrated statutory gender quotas and mandatory zipping - which requires parties to put forward equal numbers of male and female candidates and alternating between men and women when preparing their candidate lists. Seats would be allocated to parties using the D’Hondt formula (which is the current formula for electing regional members of the Senedd). You can see the details of that here. There would be six MSs representing 16 constituencies. Those 16 constituencies would be made up by using the 32 new Westminster constituencies which are paired.
READ MORE: House price growth slows in Wales
Why is there a vote of all Labour members?
At its conference in March, Welsh Labour gave its backing to Senedd reform and voted unanimously for Mark Drakeford to be given the freedom to go forward and thrash out an actual proposal. Now there is a detailed proposal, the members get their say on it.
The party has had recall conferences a number of times previously, notably in 2007 about the One Wales deal with Plaid Cymru. The recall conference is taking place in Cardiff on Saturday, July 4.
What is being voted on ?
As it stands, the wording of the motion is yet to be made public. However, we're told we should expect the proposal would look very similar, or even identical, to the proposals of the Senedd's special purpose committee chaired by Huw Irranca Davies. The wording of the motion will be determined before Saturday and can't be negotiated or changed at the event. People will be able to go to the stage and have their say, but that will take place in private.
Both unions and Constituency Labour Party members will get to vote on the single motion. We understand a number of Constituency Labour Party groups will vote against it.
Not everyone backs the reform. For some, the reform isn't extensive enough, and for others, despite being talked about for a long time, the actual detail of the reform is now being rushed through.
How does the vote work?
Both the unions and constituency labour party groups have 50% of the vote each. A total majority is needed for the motion to pass. The biggest unions are Unite, Unison and the GMB. We expect the GMB, Usdaw and Community to all vote against the motion but their votes won't be enough to collapse the motion. There are two ways it could fail, one is that Unison change sides, the other is an overwhelming number of Constituency Labour Parties also refuse to give it their support.
Will it pass?
No-one seems to be answer that at this point. There is some hopefulness and optimism that yes, after lots of talking about the subject, there will be a final decision this weekend but for many it is a compromise and that raises some concerns. This is very much something Mark Drakeford has been driving through and wants to see happen.
What happens if it fails?
Good question, and it seems to be one Labour don't know the answer to yet. Now Senedd reform has been agreed on, the hope is that members will back this to move it on. However, we've asked what happens if it fails, and if a new proposal can be put forward quickly at another recall conference or whether there is a period where
Isn't it a gamble?
The people we spoke to within the party admitted that yes the recall conference itself is indeed a bit of a gamble because it's not clear how everyone will vote and whether this will go through but that it's democracy. The party's rules mean that members get a say and this is the right way to go about it as a democratic party.
But not just that, the whole reform too is a gamble. Part of the hesitation in some backing it is that no-one knows what changing boundaries or voting models will mean and whether it will see less people vote for Labour. Labour came first or second in 35 of the 40 seats at the last election. The idea of proportional representation is that it helps smaller parties which win lots of votes across Wales but not enough to win any constituencies. That could take votes - and potentially seats - from Labour. The party has been in power since the start of devolution and shaking any of the system up could change that and that is a worry, not just for elected members who could lose their jobs, but for the party as a whole. Modelling has been done about the impact the changes could have, but it is modelling and it is very much a "could". In short, this could change everything in the 2026 election and Labour doesn't want to lose its winning record.
If Labour back it, is it a done deal?
It's never that simple. In terms of votes, yes it is likely that between Labour and Plaid Cymru, the so-called super majority (of two thirds) would be met. Plaid Cymru have done what they need to in terms of its party's rules, but looking forward there is more to work out.
There are questions about whether the Welsh Parliament can pass a law which includes gender quotas. In June. Conservative MS Darren Millar said the legal advice given to his party was that "it would be outside the competence of the Senedd to be able to legislate for gender quotas. That's one reason why that shouldn't go forward in any package of reforms, because equal opportunities are an entirely reserved matter to the UK Parliament".
Speaking to the BBC's Walescast, Mr Irranca-Davies, said if the Senedd backed this, there would then be 12-15 months for the actual legislation - the legal document. "In taking forward that legislation, they need to make sure if there were to be any challenge on competence issues on legislation on gender, that this bill would not be derailed. There's a number of ways of doing that. It could be devising a Bill in a way you could lift out entire clauses or sections if need be, if challenged. You could bring forward two separate Bills, it's not unknown that's been done in the past, but they run together simultaneously through the Senedd if there is something that looks like it's going to destabilise the whole lot of this by 2026. What do we want to do? We want to take all of this through by 2026, that's the transformative thing, it's simply not the numbers or capacity, it's also the fact of making this a more gender diverse chamber".
Welsh Government lawyers will need to take a view on whether if there is a successful legal challenge to the gender element of the Bill, whether that would, or could derail the whole thing.
So will this happen for 2026?
More than one person has admitted it is "very tight" for any of this to be in place for 2026. In his notes of the Labour Welsh Executive Council, member Darren Williams said in May that the First Minister Mark Drakeford had admitted "he legislative timetable was very tight if the proposals were going to become law in time for the 2026 elections, and that even a small delay could prove problematic".
READ NEXT:
The three alternative school dates suggested for Wales
Met Office issues thunderstorm warning for Wales
Logan Mwangi's killers jailed for a combined 72 years
Nadine Dorries makes embarrassing gaffe confusing rugby codes
Welsh doctor says more GPs are needed to avoid 'complete collapse' of service
