In the backdrop of the Orlando Magic’s draft-day choices, which included taking Paolo Banchero with the No. 1 pick, were questions about how their decisions would impact their short-term future.
Not just how the draft would affect who they did or did not pursue in free agency. Or whether Mo Bamba, the No. 6 pick in the 2018 draft who’ll be a restricted free agent, is more or less likely to return to Orlando.
But bigger-picture questions about what their approach to next season will be after finishing 2021-22 with the league’s second-worst record at 22-60.
Will the Magic fast-track their rebuild? Or will their approach be similar to last season when the main priority was developing their younger players?
“You guys know we didn’t do all the roster deconstruction we did so we can rush back to the middle,” president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman told reporters ahead of the draft. “That’s not what we’re trying to do. That said, there [are] a lot of different permutations to that. Right now, we want to play better basketball, make fewer mistakes, increase our IQ, build chemistry and continue to understand which of our players are going to impact winning.”
In other words, don’t expect the approach to next season to be significantly different from 2021-22.
There’s been a recent common trend among the teams who’ve been in the Magic’s position before drafting at No. 1.
Teams that won fewer than 30% of their games before drafting the top pick in the last 15 years typically made marginal improvements to their winning percentage the following season.
That’s what happened for the Detroit Pistons, who won 27.8% of their games in 2020-21, drafted Cade Cunningham at No. 1 last year and won 28% of their games this past season.
The same happened for the Minnesota Timberwolves when they took Anthony Edwards at No. 1 in 2020. They won 29.7% of their games the season before (2019-20) drafting Edwards and 31.9% his rookie year (2020-21).
Most teams in the Magic’s position took a significant leap 2-3 seasons after drafting No. 1, allowing more time for a team to build itself organically and identity which young players will take the next step with the organization. The Timberwolves are an example of this, winning 56.1% of their games in 2021-22 and making the playoffs for the first time in four seasons.
“We do want to get better, but not at the expense of rushing back to mediocrity,” Weltman said. “We do want to have something sustainable. You have to elevate the standard to do that. You can’t just stay at the basement level. Those are conversations we’re having — which players do that for us.”
The Magic have been patient with their rebuild.
The internal growth of their young core — which includes Wendell Carter Jr., Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz, among others — will dictate how significant Orlando will improve next season.
So will health, with Suggs and Fultz missing significant time last season. Jonathan Isaac is also expected to return to the floor in 2022-23 after missing the last two seasons while rehabbing from a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee he suffered in August 2020.
The Magic want to get better.
Unlike some teams who draft at No. 1, they already had a solid group of young players. Banchero will be a significant addition.
Winning will be a greater priority next season than it was last year. Just don’t expect Orlando to rush its plan by making any moves in free agency or in the trade market that suggest it’s in “win-now” mode.
“I wouldn’t really expect us to deviate from our plan, which was to come in and assemble a roster of high-character, talented, versatile players who’ll grow up together and make this a sustainable winning team,” Weltman said on The Ryen Russillo Podcast after the draft. “Along the way, stuff is going to happen. When you have cap space and extra [draft] picks, interesting ideas will come across your doorstep. I’m very pleased with where we are now.”
