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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
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Nathalie Tocci

Will the hard right really sweep Europe in 2024? If it does, here’s what could happen

Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán and Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni at a Nato summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, July 2023
Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán and Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni at a Nato summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, July 2023. Photograph: Dominika Zarzycka/Sopa Images/Shutterstock

There has been much talk of late about a renewed far right surge in Europe, especially as the continent looks ahead to the European parliament elections next June. Is this tilt to the right likely to happen – and what could it mean for us?

This fear has ebbed and flowed. It took off when Georgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy surged in elections last year, as did the hard-right Sweden Democrats, which became part of the rightwing governing bloc and shapes its policies for the first time. The following months saw rightwing wins in Finland and Greece too. The firm conviction that there was an inexorable rise of the right then crumbled in July this year, when in Spain the hard-right Vox and the conservative Popular party failed to win a joint majority in elections, leading to the eventual return of a progressive coalition led by Pedro Sánchez. Three months later, Poles voted to oust the populist right Law and Justice party, opening the way to a liberal government led by a former president of the European Council, Donald Tusk.

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