When Conservative MPs are asked privately if the party will pull itself out of a seemingly never-ending spiral of disunity now Rishi Sunak is at the helm, rather than reply with the affirmative, most instead say that “it can” or “it has to”.
The new prime minister will expect to get a reprieve from colleagues’ acidic briefings as those who tried everything to keep him out of Downing Street slink away to lick their wounds and the more moderate doubters magnanimously fall into line.
But the honeymoon period is likely to be short-lived, with Sunak facing many of the same problems his predecessor, Liz Truss, did, including dire economic forecasts and plunging poll ratings.
With nearly 200 public endorsements from MPs, Sunak was the clear favourite among the parliamentary party. However, he was still viewed with scepticism by those who were trying to turn the coronation into a contest between him and Penny Mordaunt or Boris Johnson.
So riven were those on the government’s green benches that one admitted on Monday: “My head is with Rishi, my heart is with Penny and my soul is with Boris.”
Sunak is largely seen as a stabilising force. Attacked by political opponents over the summer for being “Treasury orthodoxy” personified, that label will probably be worn from now on as a badge of pride.
Most Tory MPs say they are sick of being the stars in a long-running political soap opera, and hope the former chancellor will be the right person to steady nerves in the City and claw back the Conservatives’ mantle of prudent economic competence.
As they gathered to hear him address the 1922 Committee for the first time since becoming Truss’s successor, the din of MPs thumping desks, walls and doors to signify their support for his statements reverberated far down the corridors of power.
In attendance were some who worked desperately to install a rival in No 10.
Mordaunt herself was graciously clapped into the room, and her supporters dutifully ducked out to be among the first to speak to the TV cameras and declare they were uniting behind Sunak.
Even James Duddridge, who confidently proclaimed Johnson had more than 100 backers on Saturday afternoon and led the operation whipping up support for him among MPs, was there in a show of solidarity.
Truss stayed away, but still tweeted her support.
However, it is easy to over-read the immediate public displays of loyalty as something resembling a lasting peace.
Some endorsed him very late in the day because they could see which way the wind was blowing and wanted to curry favour with the new Downing Street operation.
One minister who threw their weight behind Sunak said they did so reluctantly. “He’s only spoken to me two times – both were during leadership contests,” they raged.
There will also be siren voices that could continue criticising Sunak from the sidelines.
Nadine Dorries, the former culture secretary and one of Johnson’s most diehard allies, said Sunak had “no mandate” to govern and predicted it would be “impossible” to avoid calling a snap general election.
But the new prime minister’s supporters are confident her like will become fringe voices.
“If I was getting a plum seat in the Lords and didn’t have to fight to keep my seat, I’d probably say the same thing,” one scoffed. Another said: “Every wine cellar needs a couple of bottles of cheap plonk to remind the drinker of the quality of the rest of the stock.”
Tory activists being denied a proper contest have still caused some unrest, with several MPs reporting they had received requests from people cancelling their membership.
Joseph Robertson, the director of the Orthodox Conservatives thinktank, said Sunak was “voted against by the membership” over the summer and had lacked a “democratic mandate”.
A Downing Street source also admitted when the operation to save Truss’s premiership was set up in the Pillared Room at No 10 just seven days ago, they heard from several MPs who feared the Conservative party had become “ungovernable”.
Whether Sunak can maintain the good will he is largely getting from colleagues now could hinge on cabinet appointments, which will begin in earnest after he is officially installed in No 10.
The new prime minister might decide to sack those ministers viewed as Truss’s cronies who, critics believe, got a place in government for their loyalty rather than skills.
“If you’re going to have a cabinet of all the talents, then you’ll need to kick out around half of the current lot,” quipped one senior Tory.
Doing so risks accusations of a purge of a particular wing of the party and reigniting the vicious briefings that bubbled up only weeks after Truss came into office.
Difficult decisions remain on the horizon too: deciding where spending cuts fall – and whether that affects raising benefits in line with inflation, restoring aid to 0.7% of GDP or rowing back on the commitment to raise defence spending to 3% by the end of the decade – could rile Tory backbenchers in the coming weeks.
MPs admit that for their own electoral chances, they will have to give him space to succeed and try not to exacerbate the current 30-point polling deficit by compounding the Conservatives’ disunity even further.
“If Rishi wants to wait, he’s got two years until the next election,” one said. “Considering everything that’s happened over the last two months, that’s an absolute age. So he does have time on his side to turn things around.”
Michael Howard, the former Conservative leader, summed up the case, saying that “in order to govern effectively, our new prime minister needs a unified parliamentary party”. He added: “Conservative MPs have their future – and ours – in their hands.”
Sunak himself put the message bluntly, using a few precious moments in his 90-second address to the nation to warn MPs they had to “unite or die”.
But the closer a general election gets and the longer it takes to turn around the party’s electoral fortunes, the more their patience will wear thin. If Sunak fails to avert an embarrassing drubbing at the local elections in May, faith in him will be diminished.
Also lingering in the background is Johnson’s future. He pulled out of the latest race, but the past five days have shown he is desperate to emulate his hero Winston Churchill and make a sensational comeback, in what could be the ultimate act of political revenge.
As long as the prospect of a Johnson revival remains, however distant it is, Sunak will struggle to truly stamp out the party’s appetite for regicide.
