With the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) seasonal forecast on temperature for March and the remaining summer season painting a grim picture for Kerala, the biggest question now is whether March 2024 would upend previous heat benchmarks in the State. The latest monthly forecast issued by the IMD warned of above normal temperatures in Kerala between March and May.
Further, when the forecast is hopeful of normal to above-normal summer rainfall over most parts of the country, summer rain is likely to give southern Kerala a miss in March, where below-normal rainfall is expected as per the forecast of the IMD. However, central and north Kerala are likely to get some relief in the month, with the possibility of some isolated summer showers.
Like in previous years, parts of Palakkad, Thrissur, Kollam, Kannur and Kottayam are likely to bear the brunt of the rising temperature. As per the record books of IMD between 1901 and 2020, the highest extreme temperature of 41.4°C was recorded in Palakkad on March 31, 1983, followed by 40.6°C in Punalur on March 30, 1992, 40.4°C at Vellanikkara in Thrissur on March 26, 2019, and 39.1°C in Kannur on March 12, 2016.
The highest maximum temperature has been hovering between 38°C and 39°C in vulnerable districts in the State. However, the absence of summer showers coupled with the lingering impact of El Niño, which still persists although a steady weakening trend is evident in the oceanic indicators, is likely to push the mercury up in March.
However, some relief is expected at the fag end of the summer season, as most of the international climate models indicate that the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels in April (i.e., neither El Niño nor La Niña), according to the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. Further, with the deficient monsoon season (2023) in Kerala setting the alarm bells ringing early ahead of the summer, the water levels in the reservoirs owned by the Kerala State Electricity Board and Irrigation department are not alarmingly low.
