Puka Nakua feels like the steal of the 2023 NFL draft. Despite only four regular season games of proper evaluation, the 22-year-old wide receiver out of BYU has dazzled with his league-leading 39 receptions and 501 receiving yards after catching nine passes for 163 yards and the game-winning touchdown against the Colts on Sunday. However the 2021 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Cooper Kupp, is set to start practicing this week after his stint on IR and with Matthew Stafford’s tendency to continually target Kupp, should we be worried about Nacua’s progress?
Well, let’s look at the Stafford-Kupp relationship. To say it was a match made in heaven would be an understatement. Now, everyone talks about the deep throw against Cover 0 in Tampa that set up a Matt Gay game-winning field goal, or the goal line fade to win a Super Bowl, but their success came at the start. In their first game together, Kupp caught a team-leading seven catches for 108 yards and a touchdown as the Rams defeated Chicago, 34-14. Since then, Kupp has been Stafford’s top target. There’s nothing wrong with having a top target. Every great quarterback has one. However, the problem is that Stafford oftentimes becomes overly reliant on Kupp to the detriment of the receivers around him.
If you look at the stats from when they’re on the field together, Kupp catches one in every three of Stafford’s completions. This got to the point that Allen Robinson became a non-factor in their offense in 2022. In Stafford’s four games this year, Nacua has clearly been his No. 1 target. He’s either tied or led the Rams in receiving yards in all four games. If we look at Stafford’s career, he’s made a whole lot of money targeting one man. Whether Nucua now, Kupp previously or Calvin Johnson for all those years in Detroit, Stafford has eye-balled one receiver. I mean, was Kenny Golliday good or did Stafford target him so much that his inflated numbers made him seem better than he was? I know Giants fans have a strong opinion on that one.
If you’re Sean McVay, you have a stud on your hands. You also have an $80 All-Pro receiver. Stafford will choose to target one obsessively and history says it will be Kupp. However, Kupp is on the second half of his career and Nucua looks like the cheap president-elect. It will be on McVay to limit both Kupp’s targets and total snaps, force Stafford to go to Nacua and then gradually work Kupp in. Having those two operate as individual dangerous threats will allow both the run game to open up underneath, as well as pockets of space for Tyler Higbee and Tutu Atwell to exploit.
We’ll have to wait and see but you must express some type of nervousness when it comes to this situation, especially with Kupp having several unanswered questions associated with his health. How healthy is he? How prone to re-injury is he? Can he still make sharp cuts? Can he still have the same type of explosiveness? And the big question is that if Kupp isn’t as good as he was in early 2022, will Stafford still target him like he was? It seems worrisome, but these are major concerns that can impact a season.
Only time will tell how Kupp’s return will affect this team but there are three things I want to see from the Rams. Mike LaFleur needs to have more input on play design with an emphasis on getting Nacua involved, Nacua needs to continue to perform so Kupp gets relegated as the No. 2 and McVay needs to emphasize a balanced distribution of the football.
The Rams continue to sputter after a dominant season opener in Seattle. A victory in overtime against the Colts gave Los Angeles its second win on the season. With tough games against some dominant defenses coming up, Kupp will be needed. Managing his usage may be the difference between a playoff berth and a disappointing season.
