Republican congressional candidates did better than expected last month in California’s Central Valley, the purple, 450-mile stretch down the middle of a deep blue state.
In three districts with boundaries redrawn after the 2020 census that have a Democratic advantage — the 9th, 13th and 22nd — GOP primary contenders drew 48.2%, 51.8% and 54.6% respectively, according to the Associated Press.
Does this mean that the widely anticipated Republican “red wave” of mid-term victories, predicted to carry the House into GOP hands, will also wash through the valley? Not necessarily, election analysts said.
“There are a lot of real positive wave-like indicators for Republicans out there. The California results were not that,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Still, California Democrats must deal with President Joe Biden’s low job approval ratings and the historic vulnerability of the party that holds the White House at midterm.
Democrats have the added challenge of low incentive for turnout, given that the state-wide races at the top of the ticket — for governor and U.S. Senate — are all but decided.
“I think it’s going to be a challenging year for Democrats, even in California in these tough districts because you saw low turnout in 2014 when (then-Gov.) Jerry Brown did not have a tough re-election,” said Andrew Acosta, a Democratic consultant.
Democrats do better in the fall, analysts said. A California Democrat has not lost the general in the last decade if the party got at least 50% of the votes in the primary. For Republicans, that assuring trend is not true.
With nearly all the votes counted in the “top two” primary, Rep. Josh Harder (D) and San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti (R) advanced in the 9th; Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) and farmer John Duarte (R) in the 13th; and Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) and Rep. David Valadao (R) the 22nd.
Here’s a closer look at the Central Valley races:
9th Congressional District
Harder took 37.8% of the vote with almost 84% of ballots counted. Patti, 28.6%.
The Stockton-centered district was the bluer of two options left to Harder after his Modesto-area 10th District was split apart in the re-draw. But a few things worked against him. First, it is a good year for GOP candidates. Second, the top chunk of the 9th is new to him. And, he’s new to those voters.
“You have a lot of people there who are really very disenchanted with Sacramento, with D.C., and Adam Gray and Josh Harder are associated with that,” Matt Rexroad, a Republican consultant.
Harder has represented parts of the San Joaquin Valley in Congress since 2019. Patti has served on the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors since 2017.
13th Congressional District
Biden would have carried this new San Joaquin Valley district by 10 points had he run there in 2020. But Republicans took a majority of the votes and the top slot in the June primary. It is now largely considered a toss-up.
“In districts that have similar partisan performance to this one all across the country, we’re seeing close races. Districts that voted for Biden by 10 or 11 points are now very competitive seats,” said David Wasserman, an editor of The Cook Political Report.
Duarte, a Republican from Modesto and founder of a crop nursery, took 34.3% with almost 97% of ballots counted. Gray, D-Merced, who has represented much of the congressional district in the State Assembly for a decade, got 31%.
Kondik said that the 13th could be Republican’s best pick-up opportunity.
Hispanic voter trends leaning more Republican is something to watch for in the Central Valley, analysts noted. The Valley has three Hispanic-majority voting-age districts, including the 13th and 22nd.
For that reason, Democrats should “be concerned in the long run, or for the short run in this district at least,” said Eric Cunningham, editor-in-chief of Elections Daily.
Gray had to get past another popular Democrat in the primary and his legislative experience for Merced County, held entirely in the 13th, should carry him through November, analysts said.
California’s 22nd Congressional District
What was worrisome for Valadao, R-Hanford, in the 22nd on primary might become an asset in the fall.
The Hanford dairy farmer was one of 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach Trump over the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. He took 25.6% of the primary vote with almost 97% counted.
Salas, D-Bakersfield, earned 45.4%. He has been a moderate Democrat in the Assembly since 2012, when he assumed Valadao’s seat.
Analysts have repeatedly said that the race in the Hanford-to-Wasco district is a toss-up.
“Valadao has over-performed every election he’s run in, since he was in the Legislature,” Paul Mitchell, the vice president of Political Data, said. “And it will be interesting that Salas, if he wins, will be the first Latino Congressman from the Central Valley.”
But the incumbent escaped the primary “by the skin of his teeth,” said Inside Elections’ analyst Jacob Rubashkin. Closely following him was Chris Mathys, a pro-Trump conservative who vowed to defeat the congressman over the impeachment vote, with 23.1%.
“I believe the reason why Valadao made the top two was that Kevin McCarthy kept Trump out of the race from endorsing Mathys,” Wasserman said. “Without that, it’s not clear that Valadao would have gotten by. He is one of the only Republicans who voted for impeachment who has a path to reelection.”
That impeachment vote could be an asset in November, however, in a district that would have voted for Biden with a 13% margin, Wasserman said.
Valadao has represented the increasingly-blue area in Congress for the most part since 2013, apart from losing the seat briefly to former Democratic Congressman TJ Cox in 2018 amid a national “blue wave.” Salas has been a popular choice for Democrats to run against the congressman for years.
“Every two years people call me and ask, ‘So this is the year David Valadao is going to lose?’ ” Rexroad said. “That guy just always survives, right? He lost 2018 on kind of a fluke. But he is just a unique candidate.”
———
