In a July 24, 2025, Barchart article on U.S. government bonds and the TLT ETF that tracks the debt securities, I concluded with the following:
The range since the beginning of 2024 highlights the technical support and resistance levels. If rising U.S. debt levels lead to selling in the bond market, TLT is likely to head lower. However, if the debt doesn’t matter and the U.S. can reduce spending and grow its way out of the debt through economic initiatives, the TLT will likely rally. For now, long-term interest rates and the TLT remain in a trading range, closer to the lows than the highs since early 2024, and are waiting for the next economic shoe to drop. Expect short-term rates to decline, but the path of long-term rates depends on the success of current economic initiatives.
