Typical. After a round of new year prediction punditry that made one think that 2023 could only be bleaker and weaker than 2022, the FTSE 100 index charged off in the opposite direction. It was up 180 points after two hours of trading to a shade over 7,600, enough to bring the all-time high (7,877, in the faraway pre-Ukraine, pre-Covid days of 2018) into view, a prospect that did not feature heavily in most “what to expect” checklists.
By the close, the gain was a more modest 102 points but still out of tune with the general diagnosis that a third of the world would be in recession this year (the IMF) and that the UK’s downturn was likely to be the worst and longest in the G7 (a Financial Times poll of 101 UK economists). Never mistake share price for the real economy, but it’s worth asking the question: is it possible that 2023 could be a tale of muddling through, as opposed to a story of unmitigated financial gloom?
