It’s finally fantasy football draft season!
Actually, if you’re like me, it’s been fantasy football draft season for a while now. I’ve done PPR, Superflex, Best Balls, tight-end premiums, you name it, and I’ve noticed that I keep gravitating toward a few wideouts at their current average draft position (ADP).
These receivers aren’t rookies or deep sleepers, either. They are pass-catchers who will return more value than the market currently values them. All of these players are going in the tenth round or later.
Check out these seven wide receivers that present value at their current ADP.
ADP data according to Sleeper Fantasy.
Curtis Samuel (ADP 120)
Samuel joins a Buffalo Bills offense with 240 targets up for grabs after losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in the off-season. Khalil Shakir remains, and Dalton Kincaid should soak up some targets, as should rookie Keon Coleman, but Samuel could quickly end up being the most reliable of the bunch for fantasy. Samuel is a versatile player who can be used for his mobility in specific packages- rather like the “other” Samuel in San Francisco. Curtis Samuel was successful in the Joe Brady offense in Carolina. In their last season together for the Panthers, Samuel saw 97 targets for 851 yards, adding another 200 yards on the ground and totaling five touchdowns. Samuel will benefit from playing with the best quarterback of his career, Josh Allen.
Tyler Lockett (ADP 124)
Geno Smith had a down season last year, but there are reasons to be optimistic in 2024. New head coach Mike MacDonald hired Ryan Grubb as the offensive coordinator. This team will look very different in what should be an Air Raid offense. Expect to see plenty of three and four-wide-receiver sets. Though Metcalf is expected to be the alpha, Lockett should still have plenty of opportunities as a solid veteran pass-catcher with chemistry with Smith. Lockett may have slowed down a bit, but Lockett, who commanded 33% of the team’s targeted air yards last season, could still put up WR3 numbers.
Jerry Jeudy (ADP 134)
We have been waiting for Jerry Jeudy to break out since 2020. Could this finally be it? At pick 134, I’m willing to take a chance. Jeudy is known for being a good route runner, and he will finally be playing in a winning system in Cleveland. Amari Cooper will remain the focal point of this offense with DeShaun Watson, but Jeudy has the opportunity to be a solid number-two wideout. At only age 25 and now fully healthy, Jeudy has the talent to outperform this ADP.
Rasheed Shahid (ADP 139)
I expect this ADP to rise as the buzz grows with Shahid in camp. Michael Thomas is finally officially out of the picture, and Shahid should continue to function as the number two wideout in Dennis Allen’s offense. Shahid is a sure-handed deep threat who saw 22.6% of the Saints targeted air yards in 2023. If he can get a few more targets this season, he could become a solid weekly play rather than just a boom-or-bust option. Shahid will also return kicks this season for the Saints, so weigh that according to your league’s scoring system.
Brandin Cooks (ADP 157)
Here are a couple of interesting facts from last season:
Brandin Cooks was far better at home than he was on the road last season, and the Cowboys were far better when they got Cooks involved in the offense.
In 11 games the Cowboys won, Cooks averaged 5.1 targets per game and 13.1 yards per catch. He totaled seven touchdowns in those wins. In the games they lost, Cooks saw just 4.2 targets per game, averaged just 6.2 yards per reception, and scored only one touchdown.
When at home, Cooks averaged 66 receiving yards per game with five total receiving touchdowns. He averaged 21.6 yards per game on the road with three touchdowns.
I’m going to hope the Cowboys noticed this, too.
With CeeDee Lamb not at camp, Dak and Cooks are getting to spend a lot of time together. Sure, Jake Ferguson is still in line to catch passes, and there is plenty of buzz around Jalen Tolbert, but Cooks is a proven veteran and leader that should pay off at this ADP.
Mike Williams (ADP 159)
Williams will be returning from a torn ACL, so he may not be ready to start the season; however, he’s still worth a roster spot at this ADP. Williams was off to a fast start in 2023 with 249 yards and 26 targets through 11 quarters when he tore his ACL in Week Three and missed the rest of the season. Though Williams is in his age-30 season now, there’s plenty of big-play upside that could happen with Aaron Rodgers slinging the ball. There is not a lot of depth after Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall in New York, and Williams could emerge as a genuine threat once he is fully healthy and ramped up. Rodgers has a career 6.2% touchdown rate- that’s higher than Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, and Patrick Mahomes. Williams is a big red zone threat that could easily benefit from Rodgers’ red zone accuracy.
Jahan Dotson (ADP 165)
Jayden Daniels, the 2023 Heisman Winner, should be an upgrade for all the pass-catchers in Washington. Kliff Kingsbury should use plenty of RPO, but he also won’t be afraid to stretch the field. McLaurin should look excellent in this offense, but don’t sleep on Dotson, who should fit better into this offense than he did in Eric Bienemy’s. Dotson had a promising rookie season in 2022, and with Curtis Samuel now in Buffalo, Dotson could see more opportunities and benefit from a more accurate quarterback in DC.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Wide Receiver Sleepers Who Will Outperform their Draft Position in 2024 Fantasy Football .
